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Predictions / DETONATE vs LAG · match preview
DETONATE vs LAG: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
20%80%
26%
3.491.25Market · 3 books
74%The call · high confidence
LAG are favoured: our model gives them 80% against DETONATE. Bookmakers lean LAG at 74%. Strength clearly favours LAG, record clearly favours LAG, form slightly favours LAG, firepower clearly favours LAG, head-to-head clearly favours LAG.
Likely mapsCache · Inferno · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
DETONATEpullLAG
Team strength1467
161378/22 LAG
Track record7–13
54–2773/27 LAG
Recent formWLWLL
WWWWL61/39 LAG
Roster rating1.11
1.1598/2 LAG
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 LAG
Bookmakers imply 26% for DETONATE (3.49 / 1.25); we land 6 points lower at 20%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (42 maps of DETONATE, 187 of LAG). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: LAG leads 2–0.
Bottom line: LAG to beat DETONATE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsDETONATE · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.27iStar gap: the best player rates 0.27 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
LAG · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
DETONATE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents18d ago
DETONATE12 : 16
LAG!24d ago DETONATE4 : 13 LAG!
DETONATE12 : 16 LAG!⚠ Different lineup
DETONATE
outFeral, Maxuel
inCrePoW, TH0R
DETONATE4 : 13 LAG!⚠ Different lineup
DETONATE
outMaxuel
inTH0R
SportsBetExpert#711-48-10
LAG vs SportsBetExpert
Sep 18LMirage8-13Dust27-13Aug 31WAnubis16-13Nuke6-13Mirage7-13Dust213-2Aug 1LInferno6-13Dust213-9Nuke4-13+3 earlier meetings
Overtake Sector#1252-44-1
DETONATE vs Overtake Sector
Sep 15LCache13-11Mirage3-13Inferno6-13Sep 6LCache9-13Mirage13-8Inferno4-13
regain#1631-22-0
LAG vs regain
Sep 11WInferno13-8Dust213-3
Olympus#1640-22-3
DETONATE vs Olympus
Sep 20LAncient11-13Inferno5-13
Iowa Stormboar#1773-34-1
NuTorious#2021-24-0
FARFarmVille#2031-08-0
DETONATE vs FarmVille
Sep 6WInferno13-9LAG vs FarmVille
Sep 20WDust213-4Inferno13-5Apr 3Wseries2-0Feb 23WInferno13-9Dust213-2+1 earlier meeting
Wanted Goons#2302-06-1
DETONATE vs Wanted Goons
Jun 13WAnubis13-9Ancient16-14Map lab
LAG75%to win the Bo3 · most likely LAG 2-0
If the veto goes
DETONATE 25%how the series ends75% LAG
10%2-040%
15%2-135%
DETONATE50%4-2thinLAG50%0-0
67%Win–
62%CT–
36%T–
67%Pistol–
88%Conv–
DETONATE20%3-8vsLAG80%32-18
27%Win64%
42%CT54%
44%T58%
55%Pistol43%
83%Conv86%
DETONATE30%3-3vsLAG70%20-8
50%Win71%
52%CT57%
44%T56%
25%Pistol52%
100%Conv93%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
DETONATECacheLAG
62%CT side–
36%T side–
67%Pistol–
88%After win–
0%After loss–
DETONATEInfernoLAG
42%CT side54%
44%T side58%
55%Pistol43%
83%After win86%
0%After loss32%
DETONATENukeLAG
52%CT side57%
44%T side56%
25%Pistol52%
100%After win93%
11%After loss26%
Pistol rounds50% · 46% · DETONATE win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 89% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol4% · 30% · LAG fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, DETONATE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapDETLAG
Dust2DET ban0%0-174%26-9
MirageLAG ban38%3-550%12-12
CacheDET pick67%4-2n/a0g
DETONATE on Cache
W
Club 33313–10todayWOvertake Sector13–118d agoWSportsBetExpert16–1211d agoLOvertake Sector9–1317d agoWNuTorious16–1419d agoLSportsBetExpert10–1324d agoLAG on Cache
no recent maps
InfernoLAG pick27%3-864%32-18
AncientDET ban50%2-266%19-10
AnubisLAG ban17%1-545%5-6
Nukedecider50%3-371%20-8
Each team's usual first ban: DETONATE Dust2 · LAG Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
DETONATE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/16 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 9 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 9 downvs Club 333Cachefrom 6 downvs Iowa StormboarMiragefrom 5 downvs Overtake SectorMiragefrom 5 downvs Wanted GoonsAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i11/26 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 26 maps they lost, 11 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Festina LenteAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13vs NuToriousInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs Overtake SectorCacheled 4 · lost 9-13vs regainInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs Overtake SectorInfernoled 4 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Festina LenteAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs Wanted GoonsAncient16-14vs Iowa StormboarMirage16-14vs NuToriousCache16-14vs LAGAnubis12-16vs SportsBetExpertCache16-12
LAG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/117 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 117 maps they won, 42 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FarmVilleDust2from 9 downvs mouseDust2from 8 downvs Wanted GoonsDust2from 6 downvs SurgeDust2from 6 downvs KODEXAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/68 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 26 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19vs BOSSNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs BOSSNukeled 6 · lost 17-19vs WildcardMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs Fisher CollegeMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FarmVilleDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mouseInfernoled 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs WildcardInferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno19-16vs BOSSNuke17-19vs mouseDust216-14vs BOSSInferno16-14