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Predictions / Permitta vs megoshort · match preview
Permitta vs megoshort: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier
Permitta
World #100 · 12-16
VS
2026-09-22 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
megoshort
World #– · 27-32
CCT 2026 Europe Series 10 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
49%51%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 49–51. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours megoshort, form clearly favours megoshort.
Likely mapsCache · Ancient · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Permittapullmegoshort
Team strength1460
150159/41 MEG
Track record12–16
27–3251/49 MEG
Recent formLLLWL
LWWLW71/29 MEG
Roster rating1.06
1.0555/45 MEG
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 93% our own signal (63 maps of Permitta, 136 of megoshort).
Bottom line: megoshort to beat Permitta, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsPermitta · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
megoshort · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Permitta
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
EAC#660-22-1
Permitta vs EAC
Aug 19Lseries0-2megoshort vs EAC
May 21WMirage13-10Overpass6-13Ancient16-14
Bushido Wildcats#760-40-2
megoshort vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 13LDust26-13Cache11-13
G2 Ares#1034-10-2
megoshort vs G2 Ares
Jul 19LAncient8-13Mirage11-13
Misa#1102-01-2
Permitta vs Misa
Aug 27WCache16-13Ancient13-3megoshort vs Misa
Sep 10LMirage9-13Cache19-16Dust28-13
MOUZ NXT#1360-21-2
Permitta vs MOUZ NXT
Sep 7LAncient14-16Nuke2-13megoshort vs MOUZ NXT
Mar 12LAncient8-13Anubis13-9Dust211-13Map lab
Permitta53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Permitta 2-1
If the veto goes
Permitta 53%how the series ends47% megoshort
19%2-029%
34%2-118%
Permitta57%5-1vsmegoshort43%3-1
83%Win75%
56%CT54%
56%T46%
67%Pistol50%
100%Conv75%
Permitta33%4-7vsmegoshort67%18-14
36%Win56%
49%CT53%
51%T51%
45%Pistol50%
80%Conv91%
Permitta66%7-4vsmegoshort34%15-18
64%Win45%
55%CT56%
41%T39%
45%Pistol39%
70%Conv81%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
PermittaCachemegoshort
56%CT side54%
56%T side46%
67%Pistol50%
100%After win75%
75%After loss25%
PermittaAncientmegoshort
49%CT side53%
51%T side51%
45%Pistol50%
80%After win91%
33%After loss9%
PermittaMiragemegoshort
55%CT side56%
41%T side39%
45%Pistol39%
70%After win81%
42%After loss18%
Pistol rounds50% · 45% · Permitta win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol43% · 14% · Permitta fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Permitta vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPERMEG
InfernoPER bann/a0g44%8-10
Permitta on Inferno
no recent maps
NukeMEG ban44%8-10n/a0g
Permitta on Nuke
LSaint Sinners8–133d agoL
QUAZAR10–133d agoWBebop13–44d agoL
WBT Academy14–167d agoW
Spirit Academy13–108d agoWMai Tai13–69d agoLMOUZ NXT2–1311d agoW
A Great Chaos13–212d agomegoshort on Nuke
no recent maps
CachePER pick83%5-175%3-1
AncientMEG pick36%4-756%18-14
Dust2PER ban17%1-528%8-21
AnubisMEG ban44%4-557%4-3
Miragedecider64%7-445%15-18
Each team's usual first ban: Permitta Inferno · megoshort Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Permitta
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/29 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 29 maps they won, 9 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs G2 AresCachefrom 6 downvs G2 AresAnubisfrom 6 downvs AzuolasMiragefrom 5 downvs UNiTYCachefrom 4 downvs Spirit AcademyNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/32 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 32 maps they lost, 9 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNiTYAnubisled 6 · lost 17-19vs UNiTYAncientled 5 · lost 16-19vs Saint SinnersNukeled 5 · lost 8-13vs HAVUNukeled 4 · lost 17-19vs Saint SinnersDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresCachefrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNiTYAnubisled 6 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs HAVUNuke17-19vs UNiTYAncient16-19vs UNiTYAnubis17-19vs G2 AresMirage16-14vs MisaCache16-13
megoshort
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/62 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 62 maps they won, 21 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs TNCMiragefrom 8 downvs ex-MANADust2from 8 downvs QWENTRYMiragefrom 6 downvs los kogutosDust2from 6 downvs PrivateerMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/72 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 20 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AMOverpassled 7 · lost 9-13vs Bushido WildcatsCacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs MOUZ NXTAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs Aurora Young BludMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs WaveDust2led 4 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TNCMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AMOverpassled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs PrestigeInferno16-13vs TrickedAncient13-16vs STATETrain19-17vs Eternal FireMirage13-16vs Aurora Young BludOverpass14-16