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Predictions / paiN vs Turma do Pagode · match preview
paiN vs Turma do Pagode: CS2 match prediction · FERJEE In House Season 2
paiN
World #27 · 28-31
VS
2026-09-23 13:00 UTC
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
Turma do Pagode
World #124 · 14-9
FERJEE In House Season 2 · Best of 3
55%45%
The call
paiN are favoured: our model gives them 55% against Turma do Pagode. No odds yet. Record slightly favours Turma do Pagode, firepower clearly favours Turma do Pagode, head-to-head clearly favours paiN.
Likely mapsNuke · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
paiNpullTurma do Pagode
Team strength1548
155752/48 TUR
Track record28–31
14–957/43 TUR
Recent formLWLLW
LWLWL53/47 TUR
Roster rating1.04
1.0684/16 TUR
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 PAI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 93% our own signal (137 maps of paiN, 54 of Turma do Pagode). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: paiN leads 1–0.
Bottom line: paiN to beat Turma do Pagode, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingspaiN · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Turma do Pagode · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
paiN
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ShindeN#804-32-4
Galorys#952-12-1
paiN vs Galorys
Apr 1WNuke16-13Overpass6-13Mirage13-5Turma do Pagode vs Galorys
May 11WDust213-9Nuke7-13Ancient13-7
LP#1012-12-0
paiN vs LP
Jul 10WInferno13-2Dust26-13Nuke13-9Turma do Pagode vs LP
May 8WAncient13-4Dust213-5
ALKA#1232-06-2
paiN vs ALKA
Apr 1WAnubis13-7Nuke13-1
Bounty Hunters#1382-16-2
paiN vs Bounty Hunters
Mar 27WMirage11-13Nuke13-4Dust213-8Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters
Aug 27WAncient13-11Mirage13-4May 9WNuke6-13Anubis13-9Dust213-9May 2WNuke7-13Dust213-10Overpass13-11
METANOIA Wolves#2252-00-1
paiN vs METANOIA Wolves
Jul 9WInferno13-4Dust213-4Turma do Pagode vs METANOIA Wolves
Apr 24LDust216-19Map lab
paiN57%to win the Bo3 · most likely paiN 2-0
If the veto goes
paiN 57%how the series ends43% Turma do Pagode
36%2-09%
21%2-134%
paiN84%23-13vsTurma do Pagode16%0-5
64%Win0%
56%CT43%
53%T36%
44%Pistol50%
72%Conv80%
paiN43%0-6vsTurma do Pagode57%1-0
0%Win100%
36%CT58%
41%T60%
33%Pistol0%
100%Conv–
paiN39%11-14vsTurma do Pagode61%9-7
44%Win56%
50%CT57%
45%T48%
50%Pistol50%
88%Conv69%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
paiNNukeTurma do Pagode
56%CT side43%
53%T side36%
44%Pistol50%
72%After win80%
23%After loss0%
paiNCacheTurma do Pagode
36%CT side58%
41%T side60%
33%Pistol0%
100%After win–
13%After loss0%
paiNDust2Turma do Pagode
50%CT side57%
45%T side48%
50%Pistol50%
88%After win69%
20%After loss25%
Pistol rounds46% · 48% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 71% · paiN keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol21% · 17% · paiN fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, paiN vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPAITUR
AncientPAI bann/a0g72%13-5
paiN on Ancient
no recent maps
MirageTUR ban52%14-1350%1-1
NukePAI pick64%23-130%0-5
CacheTUR pick0%0-6100%1-0
paiN on Cache
L
BIG8–1317d agoL
HOTU11–1317d agoL
FURIA6–1324d agoL
9z3–131mo agoL
3DMAX10–132mo agoL
Sharks11–132mo agoTurma do Pagode on Cache
W
Yawara13–912d agoInfernoPAI ban40%8-1240%2-3
AnubisTUR ban60%6-450%2-2
Each team's usual first ban: paiN Ancient · Turma do Pagode Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
paiN
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/66 (21%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 14 (21%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 21% of their wins were comebacks, not 21% of all games.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 5 downvs G2Miragefrom 4 downvs DASHInfernofrom 4 downvs DASHNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/71 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 71 maps they lost, 23 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs FaZeDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs Bounty HuntersMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs Gaimin GladiatorsOverpassled 5 · lost 11-13vs WildcardInfernoled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ShindeNMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Natus VincereMirageled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs HEROICMirage14-16vs B8Dust216-12vs 3DMAXInferno16-14vs PARIVISIONMirage15-19vs G2Inferno16-14
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/30 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 30 maps they won, 8 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs IsurusAncientfrom 7 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/24 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 24 maps they lost, 7 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-MIBR AcademyAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs ShindeNNukeled 4 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14vs DENDELEAncient12-16vs ShindeNDust216-13