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Predictions / Nas vs Kaleido · match preview
Nas vs Kaleido: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2
Nas
World #187 · 6-5
VS
2026-09-22 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
Kaleido
World #155 · 8-14
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
59%41%
The call
Nas are favoured: our model gives them 59% against Kaleido. No odds yet. Record slightly favours Nas, form slightly favours Nas, firepower clearly favours Nas.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NaspullKaleido
Team strength1521
150553/47 NAS
Track record6–5
8–1459/41 NAS
Recent formWWWLW
LWLLW68/32 NAS
Roster rating1.11
1.0878/22 NAS
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 86% our own signal (25 maps of Nas, 54 of Kaleido).
Bottom line: Nas to beat Kaleido, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNas · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Kaleido · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
5star#330-14-4
Alter Ego#1320-21-2
Nas vs Alter Ego
Aug 28LMirage8-13Dust23-13Kaleido vs Alter Ego
Aug 27LDust213-10Ancient4-13Cache7-13
The Huns#1501-42-2
Map lab
Nas52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nas 2-1
If the veto goes
Nas 52%how the series ends48% Kaleido
17%2-029%
35%2-119%
Nas59%4-2vsKaleido41%7-6
67%Win54%
49%CT54%
52%T50%
33%Pistol42%
100%Conv73%
Nas28%1-3vsKaleido72%6-2
25%Win75%
44%CT54%
43%T53%
63%Pistol38%
80%Conv100%
Nas65%3-2vsKaleido35%4-7
60%Win36%
44%CT48%
63%T53%
70%Pistol55%
86%Conv92%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NasAncientKaleido
49%CT side54%
52%T side50%
33%Pistol42%
100%After win73%
13%After loss20%
NasMirageKaleido
44%CT side54%
43%T side53%
63%Pistol38%
80%After win100%
33%After loss10%
NasDust2Kaleido
44%CT side48%
63%T side53%
70%Pistol55%
86%After win92%
0%After loss10%
Pistol rounds53% · 45% · Nas win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol14% · 14% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nas vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNASKAL
InfernoNAS ban0%0-131%4-9
NukeKAL ban56%5-450%1-1
AncientNAS pick67%4-254%7-6
MirageKAL pick25%1-375%6-2
AnubisNAS bann/a0g0%0-2
Nas on Anubis
no recent maps
CacheKAL bann/a0g0%0-4
Nas on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2decider60%3-236%4-7
Each team's usual first ban: Nas Inferno · Kaleido Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/13 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 13 maps they won, 5 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs BanzaiAncientfrom 6 downvs LegionNukefrom 4 downvs XDMMiragefrom 3 downvs LegionNukefrom 3 downvs WXMNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/12 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 3 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Wings of FreedomNukeled 5 · lost 8-13vs XDMNukeled 3 · lost 7-13vs WXMMirageled 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BanzaiAncientfrom 6 down · won 22-19
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Wings of FreedomNukeled 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs BanzaiAncient22-19vs XDMMirage16-14
Kaleido
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/23 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 23 maps they won, 8 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs 5starAncientfrom 6 downvs Rare AtomMiragefrom 5 downvs NEXVOIDOverpassfrom 4 downvs 5starAncientfrom 4 downvs LEGAMAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/31 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 31 maps they lost, 7 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NEXVOIDAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 5 · lost 12-16vs The HunsDust2led 3 · lost 11-13vs 5starInfernoled 3 · lost 9-13vs 5starInfernoled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 5starAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NEXVOIDAncientled 6 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs Last BulletDust213-16vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAncient16-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInferno12-16vs NEXVOIDAncient14-16vs LEGAMAncient16-12