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Predictions / Kaleido vs The KnockoutX · match preview
Kaleido vs The KnockoutX: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2
Kaleido
World #162 · 9-15
VS
2026-09-24 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
The KnockoutX
World #– · 1-1
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
51%49%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. No odds yet. Record slightly favours The KnockoutX, firepower slightly favours The KnockoutX.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
KaleidopullThe KnockoutX
Team strength1508
150551/49 KAL
Track record9–15
1–163/37 THE
Recent formLWLWL
WL53/47 KAL
Roster rating1.09
1.170/30 THE
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 59% our own signal (59 maps of Kaleido, 5 of The KnockoutX; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Kaleido to beat The KnockoutX, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsKaleido · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
The KnockoutX · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.43iStar gap: the best player rates 0.43 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Kaleido
The KnockoutX
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
The Huns#1562-21-2
The KnockoutX vs The Huns
Sep 22LDust29-13Ancient13-9Mirage7-13Map lab
The KnockoutX52%to win the Bo3 · most likely The KnockoutX 2-0
If the veto goes
Kaleido 48%how the series ends52% The KnockoutX
23%2-027%
25%2-125%
Kaleido43%8-6vsThe KnockoutX57%2-0
57%Win100%
56%CT54%
49%T55%
43%Pistol50%
75%Conv50%
Kaleido52%6-7vsThe KnockoutX48%0-1
46%Win0%
51%CT30%
55%T50%
54%Pistol50%
93%Conv0%
Kaleido50%4-9thinThe KnockoutX50%0-0
31%Win–
46%CT–
51%T–
35%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
KaleidoAncientThe KnockoutX
56%CT side54%
49%T side55%
43%Pistol50%
75%After win50%
19%After loss0%
KaleidoDust2The KnockoutX
51%CT side30%
55%T side50%
54%Pistol50%
93%After win0%
8%After loss0%
KaleidoInfernoThe KnockoutX
46%CT side–
51%T side–
35%Pistol–
100%After win–
24%After loss–
Pistol rounds44% · 50% · The KnockoutX win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol89% · 33% · Kaleido keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 0% · Kaleido fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Kaleido vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapKALTHE
NukeKAL ban50%1-1n/a0g
The KnockoutX on Nuke
no recent maps
CacheTHE ban0%0-4n/a0g
The KnockoutX on Cache
no recent maps
AncientKAL pick57%8-6100%2-0
Dust2THE pick46%6-70%0-1
AnubisKAL ban0%0-3n/a0g
The KnockoutX on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageTHE ban67%6-350%1-1
Infernodecider31%4-9n/a0g
Kaleido on Inferno
WThe Huns13–521d agoL
TYLOO9–1321d agoL
NEXVOID10–1321d agoW
Staqued13–722d agoL
Just Swing10–1329d agoL
5star10–131mo agoWNEXVOID13–91mo agoL5star9–131mo agoThe KnockoutX on Inferno
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Kaleido Nuke · The KnockoutX Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Kaleido
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/26 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 26 maps they won, 10 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs 5starAncientfrom 6 downvs Rare AtomMiragefrom 5 downvs NEXVOIDOverpassfrom 4 downvs 5starAncientfrom 4 downvs LEGAMAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/33 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 33 maps they lost, 9 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LegionMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs NEXVOIDAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernoled 5 · lost 12-16vs LegionAnubisled 4 · lost 10-13vs The HunsDust2led 3 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 5starAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LegionMirageled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs Last BulletDust213-16vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAncient16-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInferno12-16vs NEXVOIDAncient14-16vs LEGAMAncient16-12
The KnockoutX
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/3 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 2 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs THE UNITAncientfrom 5 downvs THE UNITMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/2 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 1 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The HunsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs THE UNITAncientfrom 5 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The HunsDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini3.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs THE UNITAncient16-13