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Predictions / Vitalem Aerem vs bLight blue · match preview
Vitalem Aerem vs bLight blue: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2
Vitalem Aerem
World #182 · 3-5
VS
2026-09-24 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
bLight blue
World #– · 1-1
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
53%47%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. No odds yet. Every factor is level between the two sides.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Vitalem AerempullbLight blue
Team strength1495149550/50
Track record3–5
1–152/48 VIT
Recent formLLWLW
WL54/46 BLI
Roster rating1.06
1.0754/46 BLI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 59% our own signal (18 maps of Vitalem Aerem, 5 of bLight blue; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Vitalem Aerem to beat bLight blue, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVitalem Aerem · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roninbaby★ | 0.97 | 84.5 | 71.1% | 62% | 1.16 |
| lan | 1.32 | 84.2 | 72.8% | 34% | 1.16 |
| BZA | 1.07 | 73 | 73.4% | 60% | 1.04 |
| B1NGO | 0.89 | 63.2 | 72.6% | 53% | 1 |
| rain | 0.89 | 59.8 | 71.2% | 58% | 0.94 |
bLight blue · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ImpressioN★ | 1.23 | 78.2 | 72.9% | 57% | 1.24 |
| w1nt3r | 1.18 | 88.6 | 72.3% | 58% | 1.24 |
| Derek | 1.04 | 75.4 | 71.2% | 46% | 1.04 |
| clyd1e | 0.76 | 72.6 | 73.1% | 66% | 0.94 |
| Di1ka | 0.97 | 67.2 | 68.2% | 25% | 0.87 |
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Vitalem Aerem53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Vitalem Aerem 2-0
If the veto goes
Vitalem Aerem 53%how the series ends47% bLight blue
29%2-021%
24%2-126%
Vitalem Aerem58%3-3vsbLight blue42%0-2
50%Win0%
61%CT23%
46%T63%
50%Pistol50%
83%Conv100%
Vitalem Aerem50%0-0thinbLight blue50%1-0
–Win100%
–CT67%
–T33%
–Pistol50%
–Conv100%
Vitalem Aerem47%2-2vsbLight blue53%1-0
50%Win100%
62%CT58%
49%T50%
38%Pistol50%
67%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Vitalem AeremDust2bLight blue
61%CT side23%
46%T side63%
50%Pistol50%
83%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Vitalem AeremMiragebLight blue
–CT side67%
–T side33%
–Pistol50%
–After win100%
–After loss0%
Vitalem AeremAncientbLight blue
62%CT side58%
49%T side50%
38%Pistol50%
67%After win100%
40%After loss0%
Pistol rounds45% · 50% · bLight blue win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 100% · bLight blue keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol18% · 0% · Vitalem Aerem fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Vitalem Aerem vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapVITBLI
CacheVIT bann/a0gn/a0g
Vitalem Aerem on Cache
no recent maps
bLight blue on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisBLI ban100%1-0n/a0g
Vitalem Aerem on Anubis
WBanzai13–529d agobLight blue on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2VIT pick50%3-30%0-2
MirageBLI pickn/a0g100%1-0
Vitalem Aerem on Mirage
no recent maps
bLight blue on Mirage
W
The QUBE16–14todayInfernoVIT ban33%1-20%0-1
bLight blue on Inferno
L
NEXVOID3–131d agoNukeBLI ban25%1-3n/a0g
Vitalem Aerem on Nuke
L
Just Swing10–1326d agoW
5star13–927d agoL
The Huns6–1328d agoLThe Huns4–131mo agobLight blue on Nuke
no recent maps
Ancientdecider50%2-2100%1-0
Vitalem Aerem on Ancient
L
Lynn Vision16–19todayW5star13–1027d agoWBanzai13–429d agoL
Rare Atom11–131mo agobLight blue on Ancient
WThe QUBE13–11todayEach team's usual first ban: Vitalem Aerem Cache · bLight blue Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Vitalem Aerem
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/8 (13%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 1 (13%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 13% of their wins were comebacks, not 13% of all games.vs BanzaiAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/10 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 3 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Lynn VisionDust2led 4 · lost 11-13vs The HunsInfernoled 3 · lost 11-13vs Lynn VisionAncientled 3 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BanzaiAnubisfrom 4 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Lynn VisionDust2led 4 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs Just SwingDust213-16vs Lynn VisionAncient16-19
bLight blue
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs The QUBEMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/3 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 3 maps they lost, 1 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The QUBEDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The QUBEMiragefrom 3 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The QUBEDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi60% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT60% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs The QUBEMirage16-14