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Predictions / Grêmio vs Keyd Stars · match preview
Grêmio vs Keyd Stars: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
Grêmio
World #190 · 4-9
VS
2026-09-22 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Keyd Stars
World #164 · 44-45
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
36%64%
The call
Keyd Stars are favoured: our model gives them 64% against Grêmio. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Keyd Stars, record slightly favours Keyd Stars, firepower clearly favours Keyd Stars, head-to-head clearly favours Keyd Stars.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
GrêmiopullKeyd Stars
Team strength1447
151063/37 KEY
Track record4–9
44–4561/39 KEY
Recent formLLLWLLLLWL50/50
Roster rating1.02
1.0482/18 KEY
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 KEY
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 88% our own signal (32 maps of Grêmio, 203 of Keyd Stars). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Keyd Stars leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Keyd Stars to beat Grêmio, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGrêmio · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balencyy★ | 0.96 | 81.9 | 70.2% | 55% | 1.13 |
| souz4h | 0.95 | 72.7 | 70% | 56% | 1.06 |
| MITHPUTTINI | 1.01 | 64.4 | 68% | 36% | 0.98 |
| s1lent | 0.89 | 65.5 | 67.7% | 54% | 0.96 |
| yeda | 0.85 | 62.9 | 67.4% | 58% | 0.96 |
Keyd Stars · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Grêmio
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BESTIA#900-20-2
Grêmio vs BESTIA
Aug 6LInferno6-13Dust27-13Keyd Stars vs BESTIA
Jul 12LAncient11-13Dust29-13
ODDIK#1130-23-3
Grêmio vs ODDIK
Aug 30LAncient9-13Cache3-13
Isurus#1170-25-3
Grêmio vs Isurus
Aug 11LInferno5-13Dust210-13
ALKA#1231-24-0
Grêmio vs ALKA
Jul 19LInferno13-10Dust25-13Ancient11-13
Procyon#1822-10-2
Grêmio vs Procyon
Aug 9WNuke5-13Dust213-10Inferno13-2Keyd Stars vs Procyon
Sep 4LAncient11-13Inferno14-16
METANOIA Wolves#2252-04-3
Grêmio vs METANOIA Wolves
Jul 20WDust213-5Nuke13-3Keyd Stars vs METANOIA Wolves
May 22WDust213-9Ancient13-2May 16WAncient1-13Dust213-11Nuke13-11Apr 24LNuke9-13Anubis8-13
paiN Academy4-510-2
Grêmio vs paiN Academy
Sep 2LMirage9-13Inferno13-11Dust27-13Aug 4WInferno22-18Mirage7-13Cache13-10Jul 22LNuke13-16Dust213-9Cache4-13Keyd Stars vs paiN Academy
Aug 10WAnubis13-6Mirage3-13Nuke13-4May 23WDust213-2Anubis10-13Mirage13-10May 3WAnubis13-9Dust213-4+2 earlier meetings
Map lab
Keyd Stars67%to win the Bo3 · most likely Keyd Stars 2-0
If the veto goes
Grêmio 33%how the series ends67% Keyd Stars
13%2-038%
19%2-129%
Grêmio46%1-3vsKeyd Stars54%14-22
25%Win39%
47%CT48%
50%T43%
50%Pistol44%
100%Conv88%
Grêmio30%1-4vsKeyd Stars70%26-22
20%Win54%
55%CT54%
34%T48%
60%Pistol48%
83%Conv87%
Grêmio40%3-5vsKeyd Stars60%27-27
38%Win50%
48%CT52%
47%T50%
63%Pistol55%
70%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
GrêmioNukeKeyd Stars
47%CT side48%
50%T side43%
50%Pistol44%
100%After win88%
25%After loss5%
GrêmioMirageKeyd Stars
55%CT side54%
34%T side48%
60%Pistol48%
83%After win87%
25%After loss18%
GrêmioDust2Keyd Stars
48%CT side52%
47%T side50%
63%Pistol55%
70%After win80%
17%After loss24%
Pistol rounds59% · 50% · Grêmio win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 84% · Keyd Stars keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol21% · 17% · Grêmio fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Grêmio vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Keyd Stars habitually bans Inferno, Grêmio's strongest maps (Inferno all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 68/91), not an opponent read, so expect Grêmio to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapGRÊKEY
AnubisGRÊ bann/a0g62%8-5
Grêmio on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoKEY ban63%5-317%1-5
NukeGRÊ pick25%1-339%14-22
MirageKEY pick20%1-454%26-22
AncientGRÊ ban33%1-258%19-14
CacheKEY ban25%1-30%0-1
Grêmio on Cache
LODDIK3–1320d agoWpaiN Academy13–102mo agoLpaiN Academy4–132mo agoL
Patins da Ferrari14–162mo agoKeyd Stars on Cache
L
Bounty Hunters9–132mo agoEach team's usual first ban: Grêmio Anubis · Keyd Stars Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Grêmio
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/12 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 3 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 6 downvs paiN AcademyDust2from 4 downvs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/20 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 20 maps they lost, 7 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs ALKAAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Keyd StarsMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs Patins da FerrariCacheled 4 · lost 14-16vs paiN AcademyNukeled 4 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 6 down · won 22-18
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs Patins da FerrariCache14-16vs paiN AcademyNuke13-16vs paiN AcademyInferno22-18vs MEIA NOITEDust214-16
Keyd Stars
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/99 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 26 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs ODDIKNukefrom 5 downvs R2Dust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i35/104 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 104 maps they lost, 35 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16vs YawaraDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs MIBR AcademyMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs UNO MILLENukeled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-KRÜNukefrom 7 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FluxoNukeled 8 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs SharksMirage13-16vs 9zDust214-16vs ex-KRÜNuke19-15vs GalorysDust219-22vs MIBR AcademyMirage16-19