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Predictions / Turma do Pagode vs MEIA NOITE · match preview
Turma do Pagode vs MEIA NOITE: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
Turma do Pagode
World #124 · 14-9
VS
2026-09-22 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
MEIA NOITE
World #– · 4-9
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
71%29%
The call · high confidence
Turma do Pagode are favoured: our model gives them 71% against MEIA NOITE. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Turma do Pagode, record slightly favours Turma do Pagode, firepower clearly favours Turma do Pagode.
Likely mapsAncient · Inferno · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Turma do PagodepullMEIA NOITE
Team strength1557
145272/28 TUR
Track record14–9
4–966/34 TUR
Recent formLWLWL
LWLLW53/47 TUR
Roster rating1.06
1.0190/10 TUR
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 88% our own signal (54 maps of Turma do Pagode, 31 of MEIA NOITE).
Bottom line: Turma do Pagode to beat MEIA NOITE, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsTurma do Pagode · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
MEIA NOITE · avg 1.01 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Turma do Pagode
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Galorys#952-11-2
Turma do Pagode vs Galorys
May 11WDust213-9Nuke7-13Ancient13-7MEIA NOITE vs Galorys
Aug 4LDust213-11Ancient3-13Nuke5-13
Bounty Hunters#1386-20-4
Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters
Aug 27WAncient13-11Mirage13-4May 9WNuke6-13Anubis13-9Dust213-9May 2WNuke7-13Dust213-10Overpass13-11
METANOIA Wolves#2250-13-2
Turma do Pagode vs METANOIA Wolves
Apr 24LDust216-19
ex-MIBR Academy0-20-2
Turma do Pagode vs ex-MIBR Academy
Aug 25LAncient8-13Dust29-13MEIA NOITE vs ex-MIBR Academy
Aug 27LAncient5-13Mirage13-16Map lab
Turma do Pagode65%to win the Bo3 · most likely Turma do Pagode 2-0
If the veto goes
Turma do Pagode 65%how the series ends35% MEIA NOITE
37%2-06%
27%2-129%
Turma do Pagode89%13-5vsMEIA NOITE11%1-6
72%Win14%
64%CT46%
48%T39%
64%Pistol64%
96%Conv89%
Turma do Pagode42%2-3vsMEIA NOITE58%2-1
40%Win67%
51%CT40%
45%T78%
70%Pistol50%
57%Conv67%
Turma do Pagode49%9-7vsMEIA NOITE51%3-2
56%Win60%
57%CT42%
48%T47%
50%Pistol50%
69%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Turma do PagodeAncientMEIA NOITE
64%CT side46%
48%T side39%
64%Pistol64%
96%After win89%
23%After loss40%
Turma do PagodeInfernoMEIA NOITE
51%CT side40%
45%T side78%
70%Pistol50%
57%After win67%
0%After loss33%
Turma do PagodeDust2MEIA NOITE
57%CT side42%
48%T side47%
50%Pistol50%
69%After win80%
25%After loss0%
Pistol rounds59% · 57% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol22% · 23% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Turma do Pagode vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTURMEI
MirageTUR ban50%1-133%3-6
AnubisMEI ban50%2-2n/a0g
Turma do Pagode on Anubis
L
paiN6–133d agoLyour end8–1314d agoWBounty Hunters13–94mo agoW
Keyd Stars13–115mo agoMEIA NOITE on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientTUR pick72%13-514%1-6
InfernoMEI pick40%2-367%2-1
Turma do Pagode on Inferno
W
ALKA13–53d agoW
Isurus16–1412d agoLIsurus9–1322d agoLALKA10–1324d agoLIsurus8–134mo agoNukeTUR ban0%0-550%1-1
CacheMEI ban100%1-00%0-3
Turma do Pagode on Cache
W
Yawara13–912d agoDust2decider56%9-760%3-2
Each team's usual first ban: Turma do Pagode Mirage · MEIA NOITE Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Turma do Pagode
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/30 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 30 maps they won, 8 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 downvs IsurusAncientfrom 7 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs ALKAAncientfrom 5 downvs Bounty HuntersDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/24 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 24 maps they lost, 7 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs DENDELEAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 4 · lost 7-13vs ex-MIBR AcademyAncientled 4 · lost 8-13vs ShindeNNukeled 4 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bounty HuntersAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ALKADust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs METANOIA WolvesDust216-19vs YawaraAncient14-16vs IsurusInferno16-14vs DENDELEAncient12-16vs ShindeNDust216-13
MEIA NOITE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/10 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 3 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 downvs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 4 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/19 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 7 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs BORRACHEIROSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs ODDIKMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs GalorysNukeled 4 · lost 5-13vs ProcyonAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi41% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT41% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs BORRACHEIROSAncient13-16vs METANOIA WolvesMirage22-20vs METANOIA WolvesAncient12-16vs GrêmioDust216-14vs ex-MIBR AcademyMirage13-16