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Predictions / DAMAJUANA vs Bounty Hunters · match preview
DAMAJUANA vs Bounty Hunters: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
DAMAJUANA
World #220 · 2-9
VS
2026-09-22 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Bounty Hunters
World #138 · 53-45
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
32%68%
The call · high confidence
Bounty Hunters are favoured: our model gives them 68% against DAMAJUANA. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Bounty Hunters, record clearly favours Bounty Hunters, form slightly favours Bounty Hunters, firepower clearly favours Bounty Hunters.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
DAMAJUANApullBounty Hunters
Team strength1414
157981/19 BOU
Track record2–9
53–4576/24 BOU
Recent formLWLLL
WWLWL68/32 BOU
Roster rating0.89
1.0979/21 BOU
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 86% our own signal (25 maps of DAMAJUANA, 229 of Bounty Hunters).
Bottom line: Bounty Hunters to beat DAMAJUANA, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsDAMAJUANA · avg 0.89 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Bounty Hunters · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
DAMAJUANA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
LP#1010-25-5
DAMAJUANA vs LP
Feb 25LMirage6-13Dust23-13Bounty Hunters vs LP
Jul 28LNuke13-5Ancient10-13Cache10-13May 24WMirage13-6Overpass13-10Mar 4WDust26-13Ancient13-8Mirage13-9+1 earlier meeting
FOLFOLHA AMARELA0-22-3
DAMAJUANA vs FOLHA AMARELA
Feb 21LAnubis1-13Ancient6-13Bounty Hunters vs FOLHA AMARELA
Mar 11WMirage13-7Nuke13-11Feb 16LDust29-13Ancient7-13Jan 16LMirage5-13
Vasco0-21-2
DAMAJUANA vs Vasco
Apr 28LInferno7-13Mirage18-22Bounty Hunters vs Vasco
Jan 24LAncient13-10Overpass11-13Mirage13-16Map lab
Bounty Hunters65%to win the Bo3 · most likely Bounty Hunters 2-0
If the veto goes
DAMAJUANA 35%how the series ends65% Bounty Hunters
12%2-040%
23%2-125%
DAMAJUANA46%1-1vsBounty Hunters54%30-19
50%Win61%
35%CT60%
46%T46%
25%Pistol50%
0%Conv90%
DAMAJUANA26%0-4vsBounty Hunters74%24-20
0%Win55%
44%CT56%
26%T47%
38%Pistol55%
100%Conv83%
DAMAJUANA47%1-1vsBounty Hunters53%10-7
50%Win59%
53%CT51%
58%T53%
50%Pistol59%
50%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
DAMAJUANANukeBounty Hunters
35%CT side60%
46%T side46%
25%Pistol50%
0%After win90%
0%After loss14%
DAMAJUANAAncientBounty Hunters
44%CT side56%
26%T side47%
38%Pistol55%
100%After win83%
0%After loss13%
DAMAJUANACacheBounty Hunters
53%CT side51%
58%T side53%
50%Pistol59%
50%After win75%
0%After loss14%
Pistol rounds38% · 53% · Bounty Hunters win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol67% · 85% · Bounty Hunters keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 14% · Bounty Hunters fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, DAMAJUANA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapDAMBOU
Dust2DAM ban0%0-143%20-27
InfernoBOU ban14%1-6n/a0g
DAMAJUANA on Inferno
L
BESTIA Academy8–1317d agoLBORRACHEIROS1–1325d agoLBESTIA Academy0–135mo agoWELITES13–115mo agoLPlayers17–195mo agoLVasco7–135mo agoLPlayers16–197mo agoBounty Hunters on Inferno
no recent maps
NukeDAM pick50%1-161%30-19
AncientBOU pick0%0-455%24-20
MirageDAM ban20%1-456%28-22
AnubisBOU ban50%2-243%6-8
Cachedecider50%1-159%10-7
Each team's usual first ban: DAMAJUANA Dust2 · Bounty Hunters Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
DAMAJUANA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/6 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 2 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs ELITESInfernofrom 3 downvs ZettaAnubisfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/19 (16%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 3 (16%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ELITESAncientled 4 · lost 7-13vs VascoMirageled 3 · lost 18-22vs PlayersInfernoled 3 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ELITESInfernofrom 3 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ELITESAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini6.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs PlayersInferno16-19vs VascoMirage18-22vs PlayersInferno17-19
Bounty Hunters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/121 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 121 maps they won, 38 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 downvs MIBR AcademyNukefrom 6 downvs FOLHA AMARELANukefrom 5 downvs paiNMiragefrom 5 downvs Keyd StarsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/108 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 34 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13vs LPCacheled 7 · lost 10-13vs MIBRAnubisled 6 · lost 16-19vs MIBR AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Keyd StarsAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs YawaraNukefrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs VascoMirage13-16vs ImperialNuke19-17vs R2Nuke14-16vs YawaraMirage14-16vs CrashersAncient16-14