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Predictions / EXODIA vs Yawara · match preview
EXODIA vs Yawara: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
EXO
EXODIA
World #– · 0-1
VS
2026-09-23 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Yawara
World #168 · 29-35
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
33%67%
26%
3.581.24Market · 5 books
74%The call
Yawara are favoured: our model gives them 67% against EXODIA. Bookmakers lean Yawara at 74%. Record clearly favours Yawara, firepower clearly favours Yawara.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
EXODIApullYawara
Team strength1491
148751/49 EXO
Track record0–1
29–3572/28 YAW
Recent formLLLLLL50/50
Roster rating0.76
1.0599/1 YAW
Bookmakers imply 26% for EXODIA (3.58 / 1.24); we land 7 points higher at 33%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 44% our own signal (2 maps of EXODIA, 152 of Yawara; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Yawara to beat EXODIA, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsEXODIA · avg 0.76 · star gap +0.3iStar gap: the best player rates 0.3 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Yawara · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
EXODIA
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Yawara52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Yawara 2-0
If the veto goes
EXODIA 48%how the series ends52% Yawara
23%2-027%
25%2-125%
EXODIA46%0-1vsYawara54%22-15
0%Win59%
63%CT56%
17%T48%
50%Pistol39%
100%Conv76%
EXODIA50%0-0thinYawara50%21-19
–Win53%
–CT51%
–T48%
–Pistol50%
–Conv80%
EXODIA50%0-0thinYawara50%0-5
–Win0%
–CT48%
–T39%
–Pistol40%
–Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
EXODIADust2Yawara
63%CT side56%
17%T side48%
50%Pistol39%
100%After win76%
0%After loss20%
EXODIAMirageYawara
–CT side51%
–T side48%
–Pistol50%
–After win80%
–After loss5%
EXODIACacheYawara
–CT side48%
–T side39%
–Pistol40%
–After win100%
–After loss17%
Pistol rounds50% · 45% · EXODIA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 79% · EXODIA keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 13% · Yawara fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, EXODIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEXOYAW
AnubisEXO bann/a0g40%6-9
NukeYAW bann/a0g20%2-8
EXODIA on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2EXO pick0%0-159%22-15
MirageYAW pickn/a0g53%21-19
EXODIA on Mirage
no recent maps
AncientEXO ban0%0-142%11-15
InfernoYAW bann/a0g55%6-5
EXODIA on Inferno
no recent maps
Cachedecidern/a0g0%0-5
EXODIA on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: EXODIA Nuke · Yawara Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
EXODIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/2 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 2 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Yawara
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/71 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 71 maps they won, 19 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs Prison BreakersDust2from 6 downvs Keyd StarsDust2from 6 downvs UNO MILLEMiragefrom 6 downvs IsurusInfernofrom 6 downvs BESTIAMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/81 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 81 maps they lost, 19 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs paiN AcademyDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs ImperialDust2led 5 · lost 10-13vs LegacyMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs Bounty HuntersAncientled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Prison BreakersDust2from 6 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bounty HuntersNukeled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs Prison BreakersDust216-14vs Bounty HuntersMirage16-14vs ImperialMirage14-16vs ImperialNuke17-19vs LPAncient14-16