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Predictions / Sementes do Mal vs ALKA · match preview
Sementes do Mal vs ALKA: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2
SEM
Sementes do Mal
World #246 · 0-5
VS
2026-09-23 21:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
ALKA
World #122 · 23-24
ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · Best of 3
26%74%
16%
5.871.1Market · 7 books
84%The call
ALKA are favoured: our model gives them 74% against Sementes do Mal. Bookmakers lean ALKA at 84%. Strength clearly favours ALKA, record clearly favours ALKA, form clearly favours ALKA, firepower clearly favours ALKA.
Likely mapsCache · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Sementes do MalpullALKA
Team strength1424
152671/29 ALK
Track record0–5
23–2491/9 ALK
Recent formLLLLL
WLLLL78/22 ALK
Roster rating0.82
1.0697/3 ALK
Bookmakers imply 16% for Sementes do Mal (5.87 / 1.1); we land 10 points higher at 26%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 72% our own signal (10 maps of Sementes do Mal, 109 of ALKA).
Bottom line: ALKA to beat Sementes do Mal, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSementes do Mal · avg 0.82 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ALKA · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bnc★ | 1.02 | 78.6 | 71.1% | 53% | 1.13 |
| proSHOW | 1.14 | 72.9 | 71.8% | 34% | 1.13 |
| cerolzin | 1 | 72.4 | 71.1% | 50% | 1.1 |
| vinaabEAST | 0.98 | 75.5 | 70.5% | 56% | 1.06 |
| puni | 0.79 | 62.3 | 68.5% | 57% | 0.9 |
Recent form
Sementes do Mal
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsQUIQUINTESSÊNCIA#1320-22-1
Sementes do Mal vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Sep 19LCache5-13Mirage3-13ALKA vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Aug 17WCache11-13Ancient13-5Mirage13-7
Grêmio#2070-24-2
Sementes do Mal vs Grêmio
Aug 26LInferno6-13Mirage2-13Map lab
ALKA68%to win the Bo3 · most likely ALKA 2-0
If the veto goes
Sementes do Mal 32%how the series ends68% ALKA
16%2-035%
16%2-133%
Sementes do Mal35%0-3vsALKA65%3-3
0%Win50%
48%CT48%
28%T54%
33%Pistol58%
100%Conv86%
Sementes do Mal46%0-1vsALKA54%16-12
0%Win57%
58%CT53%
20%T48%
50%Pistol46%
100%Conv69%
Sementes do Mal32%0-3vsALKA68%8-5
0%Win62%
26%CT61%
24%T44%
17%Pistol42%
100%Conv91%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Sementes do MalCacheALKA
48%CT side48%
28%T side54%
33%Pistol58%
100%After win86%
25%After loss40%
Sementes do MalDust2ALKA
58%CT side53%
20%T side48%
50%Pistol46%
100%After win69%
0%After loss20%
Sementes do MalMirageALKA
26%CT side61%
24%T side44%
17%Pistol42%
100%After win91%
20%After loss20%
Pistol rounds29% · 47% · ALKA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 77% · Sementes do Mal keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol20% · 22% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Sementes do Mal vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSEMALK
NukeSEM bann/a0g38%8-13
Sementes do Mal on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisALK bann/a0g0%0-6
Sementes do Mal on Anubis
no recent maps
CacheSEM pick0%0-350%3-3
Dust2ALK pick0%0-157%16-12
AncientSEM bann/a0g48%10-11
Sementes do Mal on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoALK ban0%0-162%8-5
Miragedecider0%0-362%8-5
Each team's usual first ban: Sementes do Mal Nuke · ALKA Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Sementes do Mal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/8 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 2 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13vs RUSHMirageled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi13% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT13% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
ALKA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/54 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 54 maps they won, 21 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 downvs ProcyonAncientfrom 8 downvs BORRACHEIROSNukefrom 7 downvs PugdesonestoAncientfrom 7 downvs Red FeetDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/55 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 15 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GrêmioNukeled 10 · lost 11-13vs ShindeNDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs ProcyonInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs PugdesonestoAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs Turma do PagodeAncientled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs paiN AcademyNukefrom 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GrêmioNukeled 10 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersCache13-16vs paiN AcademyNuke16-13vs paiN AcademyMirage19-16vs BORRACHEIROSNuke16-13vs BESTIAAncient15-19