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Predictions / Villainous vs New Legends · match preview
Villainous vs New Legends: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
Villainous
World #208 · 7-11
VS
2026-09-23 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
New Legends
World #– · 1-2
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
55%45%
The call
Villainous are favoured: our model gives them 55% against New Legends. No odds yet. Form slightly favours Villainous, firepower clearly favours Villainous.
Likely mapsAnubis · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
VillainouspullNew Legends
Team strength1466
149055/45 NEW
Track record7–11
1–254/46 VIL
Recent formWLLWL
LWL60/40 VIL
Roster rating1.07
0.9786/14 VIL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 68% our own signal (39 maps of Villainous, 8 of New Legends).
Bottom line: Villainous to beat New Legends, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVillainous · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
New Legends · avg 0.97 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TheJelly★ | 0.88 | 80.2 | 66.9% | 56% | 1.08 |
| Electrician | 0.95 | 74.3 | 65.2% | 66% | 1.04 |
| frog | 0.85 | 69 | 69% | 44% | 0.97 |
| tmk | 0.77 | 62.9 | 64.7% | 30% | 0.91 |
| AGB | 0.76 | 67 | 61.8% | 42% | 0.87 |
Recent form
Villainous
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Voca#840-20-2
Villainous vs Voca
Sep 10LAnubis3-13Dust26-13New Legends vs Voca
Aug 26LDust24-13Ancient9-13
Club 333#2270-22-1
Villainous vs Club 333
Jun 21LDust27-13Inferno8-13New Legends vs Club 333
Aug 27WDust22-13Ancient13-7Mirage13-7Map lab
Villainous54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Villainous 2-0
If the veto goes
Villainous 54%how the series ends46% New Legends
28%2-022%
26%2-124%
Villainous50%5-4thinNew Legends50%0-0
56%Win–
48%CT–
62%T–
50%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Villainous56%1-2vsNew Legends44%0-2
33%Win0%
56%CT38%
35%T13%
67%Pistol0%
75%Conv–
Villainous52%2-0vsNew Legends48%1-0
100%Win100%
58%CT50%
63%T70%
75%Pistol100%
33%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
VillainousAnubisNew Legends
48%CT side–
62%T side–
50%Pistol–
100%After win–
44%After loss–
VillainousDust2New Legends
56%CT side38%
35%T side13%
67%Pistol0%
75%After win–
0%After loss25%
VillainousNukeNew Legends
58%CT side50%
63%T side70%
75%Pistol100%
33%After win50%
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds57% · 33% · Villainous win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 50% · Villainous keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol33% · 25% · Villainous fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Villainous vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapVILNEW
AncientVIL ban0%0-433%1-2
CacheNEW ban50%1-1n/a0g
New Legends on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisVIL pick56%5-4n/a0g
Villainous on Anubis
L
Wanted Goons11–132d agoLVoca3–139d agoWBabag13–712d agoW
DETONATE13–623d agoW
Overtake Sector13–324d agoW
NuTorious13–82mo agoL
SportsBetExpert14–162mo agoL
regain3–133mo agoNew Legends on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2NEW pick33%1-20%0-2
MirageVIL ban43%3-4100%1-0
InfernoNEW ban45%5-60%0-1
Nukedecider100%2-0100%1-0
New Legends on Nuke
W
EMPIRE13–922d agoEach team's usual first ban: Villainous Dust2 · New Legends Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Villainous
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/17 (18%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 17 maps they won, 3 (18%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 18% of their wins were comebacks, not 18% of all games.vs BrahmasInfernofrom 5 downvs CelestialInfernofrom 4 downvs BrahmasNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/21 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 21 maps they lost, 6 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 14-16vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16vs Iowa StormboarAncientled 4 · lost 13-16vs Wanted GoonsAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BrahmasInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi18% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT18% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs SportsBetExpertAnubis14-16vs NuToriousInferno25-21vs Overtake SectorMirage14-16vs Iowa StormboarAncient13-16
New Legends
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/3 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/5 (20%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 1 (20%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VocaAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 1 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VocaAncientled 6 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample