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Predictions / FRZ vs Overtake Sector · match preview
FRZ vs Overtake Sector: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
FRZ
FRZ
World #– · 2-6
VS
2026-09-23 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Overtake Sector
World #147 · 15-13
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
37%63%
The call
Overtake Sector are favoured: our model gives them 63% against FRZ. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Overtake Sector, record slightly favours Overtake Sector, form slightly favours Overtake Sector, firepower clearly favours Overtake Sector.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FRZpullOvertake Sector
Team strength1459
154468/32 OVE
Track record2–6
15–1365/35 OVE
Recent formLWLLL
LWWWL65/35 OVE
Roster rating1
1.1195/5 OVE
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 82% our own signal (19 maps of FRZ, 66 of Overtake Sector).
Bottom line: Overtake Sector to beat FRZ, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFRZ · avg 1 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Overtake Sector · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Marsborne#910-20-6
FRZ vs Marsborne
Apr 25LInferno4-13Ancient11-13Overtake Sector vs Marsborne
Sep 1LDust28-13Inferno9-13Jun 13LMirage7-13Inferno7-13May 25LMirage20-22Inferno11-13
F52-62-1
Map lab
Overtake Sector57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Overtake Sector 2-0
If the veto goes
FRZ 43%how the series ends57% Overtake Sector
16%2-033%
26%2-124%
FRZ52%2-2vsOvertake Sector48%6-7
50%Win46%
65%CT52%
38%T50%
38%Pistol42%
100%Conv73%
FRZ31%1-3vsOvertake Sector69%13-7
25%Win65%
37%CT66%
54%T46%
100%Pistol53%
88%Conv76%
FRZ52%2-4vsOvertake Sector48%4-8
33%Win33%
53%CT58%
29%T40%
42%Pistol38%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FRZInfernoOvertake Sector
65%CT side52%
38%T side50%
38%Pistol42%
100%After win73%
60%After loss7%
FRZMirageOvertake Sector
37%CT side66%
54%T side46%
100%Pistol53%
88%After win76%
–After loss21%
FRZAncientOvertake Sector
53%CT side58%
29%T side40%
42%Pistol38%
100%After win100%
14%After loss13%
Pistol rounds57% · 46% · FRZ win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol94% · 80% · FRZ keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol33% · 14% · FRZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FRZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFRZOVE
AnubisFRZ ban0%0-275%3-1
Overtake Sector on Anubis
W
Voca13–1121d agoL
Villainous3–1324d agoWBrahmas16–123mo agoW
ex-Aether13–84mo agoNukeOVE ban100%1-0n/a0g
FRZ on Nuke
WF513–94mo agoOvertake Sector on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoFRZ pick50%2-246%6-7
MirageOVE pick25%1-365%13-7
Dust2FRZ ban50%1-145%5-6
CacheOVE bann/a0g75%3-1
FRZ on Cache
no recent maps
Overtake Sector on Cache
L
DETONATE11–134d agoWFarmVille16–147d agoWDETONATE13–913d agoW
NuTorious13–1123d agoAncientdecider33%2-433%4-8
Each team's usual first ban: FRZ Overpass · Overtake Sector Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FRZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/7 (71%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 7 maps they won, 5 (71%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 71% of their wins were comebacks, not 71% of all games.vs NXGAncientfrom 8 downvs F5Nukefrom 6 downvs NXGDust2from 5 downvs F5Infernofrom 3 downvs Reign AboveAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/12 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 12 maps they lost, 6 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs F5Ancientled 6 · lost 10-13vs MarsborneAncientled 4 · lost 11-13vs Reign AboveMirageled 4 · lost 10-13vs F5Mirageled 3 · lost 10-13vs WildcardMirageled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NXGAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs F5Ancientled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi47% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT47% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
Overtake Sector
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/35 (49%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 35 maps they won, 17 (49%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 49% of their wins were comebacks, not 49% of all games.vs NuToriousMiragefrom 10 downvs F5Miragefrom 7 downvs Wanted GoonsMiragefrom 6 downvs VillainousMiragefrom 6 downvs EMPIREMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/31 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 31 maps they lost, 14 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneInfernoled 10 · lost 11-13vs DETONATEMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs Wanted GoonsAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs LAGMirageled 4 · lost 11-13vs NuToriousInfernoled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NuToriousMiragefrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneInfernoled 10 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs ex-AetherAncient12-16vs MarsborneMirage20-22vs BrahmasAnubis16-12vs VillainousMirage16-14vs Iowa StormboarAncient14-16