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Predictions / Villainous vs Overtake Sector · match preview
Villainous vs Overtake Sector: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
Villainous
World #206 · 8-12
VS
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Overtake Sector
World #125 · 17-13
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
29%71%
31%
2.951.34Market · 3 books
69%The call · high confidence
Overtake Sector are favoured: our model gives them 71% against Villainous. Bookmakers lean Overtake Sector at 69%. Strength slightly favours Overtake Sector, record slightly favours Overtake Sector, form slightly favours Overtake Sector, firepower clearly favours Overtake Sector, head-to-head clearly favours Overtake Sector.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
VillainouspullOvertake Sector
Team strength1471
156770/30 OVE
Track record8–12
17–1361/39 OVE
Recent formWLWLL
WWLWW58/42 OVE
Roster rating1.08
1.1488/12 OVE
Head-to-head1 maps
5 maps75/25 OVE
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 31% for Villainous (2.95 / 1.34) and we land at 29%, the same read. This read is 91% our own signal (43 maps of Villainous, 70 of Overtake Sector). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Overtake Sector leads 3–0.
Bottom line: Overtake Sector to beat Villainous, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVillainous · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Overtake Sector · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Villainous
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents3d ago
Villainous0 : 2
Overtake Sector!18d ago Villainous6 : 13 Overtake Sector!28d ago Villainous1 : 2 Overtake Sector!
Villainous0 : 2 Overtake Sector!⚠ Different lineup
Overtake Sector
outJuhst
infarg
Villainous6 : 13 Overtake Sector!⚠ Different lineup
Villainous
outrelt
inBurglar
Overtake Sector
outLEARSI
infarg
Villainous1 : 2 Overtake Sector!⚠ Different lineup
Overtake Sector
outLEARSI
infarg
Voca#690-21-2
Villainous vs Voca
Sep 10LAnubis3-13Dust26-13Overtake Sector vs Voca
Aug 29LAnubis13-11Dust210-13Ancient5-13
Iowa Stormboar#1770-22-5
Villainous vs Iowa Stormboar
Aug 28LInferno7-13Ancient13-16Overtake Sector vs Iowa Stormboar
Sep 10LDust210-13Mirage13-1Ancient14-16Sep 4LMirage4-13Jun 13LDust213-4Mirage7-13Ancient9-13
NuTorious#2022-04-1
Villainous vs NuTorious
Jul 12WAnubis13-8Inferno25-21FARFarmVille#2031-22-0
Villainous vs FarmVille
Sep 6LCache8-13Inferno13-9Mirage10-13Overtake Sector vs FarmVille
Sep 12WCache16-14Ancient16-14
DETONATE#2054-14-2
Overtake Sector vs DETONATE
Sep 15WCache11-13Mirage13-3Inferno13-6Sep 6WCache13-9Mirage8-13Inferno13-4
Wanted Goons#2302-24-2
Overtake Sector vs Wanted Goons
Jul 1WAncient10-13Mirage13-11Dust213-3Jun 12WMirage13-6Ancient10-13Overpass13-7
Club 333#2320-21-2
Villainous vs Club 333
Jun 21LDust27-13Inferno8-13Overtake Sector vs Club 333
Jul 4LInferno9-13Mirage13-8Dust27-13BRABrahmas2-02-0
Villainous vs Brahmas
Jun 9WNuke13-8Inferno13-10Overtake Sector vs Brahmas
Jun 20WAnubis16-12Mirage13-11Map lab
Overtake Sector74%to win the Bo3 · most likely Overtake Sector 2-0
If the veto goes
Villainous 26%how the series ends74% Overtake Sector
8%2-051%
18%2-123%
Villainous32%5-5vsOvertake Sector68%4-1
50%Win80%
48%CT44%
60%T57%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv40%
Villainous25%3-5vsOvertake Sector75%15-7
38%Win68%
51%CT65%
50%T48%
63%Pistol55%
90%Conv79%
Villainous44%1-1vsOvertake Sector56%3-1
50%Win75%
64%CT48%
33%T56%
75%Pistol25%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
VillainousAnubisOvertake Sector
48%CT side44%
60%T side57%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win40%
40%After loss20%
VillainousMirageOvertake Sector
51%CT side65%
50%T side48%
63%Pistol55%
90%After win79%
33%After loss25%
VillainousCacheOvertake Sector
64%CT side48%
33%T side56%
75%Pistol25%
100%After win100%
0%After loss17%
Pistol rounds58% · 50% · Villainous win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol96% · 74% · Villainous keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol35% · 23% · Villainous fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Villainous vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Overtake Sector habitually bans Nuke, Villainous's strongest maps (Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 30/30), not an opponent read, so expect Villainous to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapVILOVE
AncientVIL ban0%0-433%4-8
NukeOVE ban100%2-0n/a0g
Overtake Sector on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisVIL pick50%5-580%4-1
MirageOVE pick38%3-568%15-7
Dust2VIL ban50%2-245%5-6
InfernoOVE ban50%6-650%7-7
Cachedecider50%1-175%3-1
Overtake Sector on Cache
LDETONATE11–138d agoWFarmVille16–1411d agoWDETONATE13–917d agoWNuTorious13–1127d agoEach team's usual first ban: Villainous Dust2 · Overtake Sector Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Villainous
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/19 (16%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 3 (16%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 16% of their wins were comebacks, not 16% of all games.vs BrahmasInfernofrom 5 downvs CelestialInfernofrom 4 downvs BrahmasNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/23 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 23 maps they lost, 6 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 14-16vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16vs Iowa StormboarAncientled 4 · lost 13-16vs Wanted GoonsAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BrahmasInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi21% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT21% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs SportsBetExpertAnubis14-16vs NuToriousInferno25-21vs Overtake SectorMirage14-16vs Iowa StormboarAncient13-16
Overtake Sector
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/39 (44%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 39 maps they won, 17 (44%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 44% of their wins were comebacks, not 44% of all games.vs NuToriousMiragefrom 10 downvs F5Miragefrom 7 downvs Wanted GoonsMiragefrom 6 downvs VillainousMiragefrom 6 downvs EMPIREMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/31 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 31 maps they lost, 14 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneInfernoled 10 · lost 11-13vs DETONATEMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs Wanted GoonsAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs LAGMirageled 4 · lost 11-13vs NuToriousInfernoled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NuToriousMiragefrom 10 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneInfernoled 10 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini4.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs ex-AetherAncient12-16vs MarsborneMirage20-22vs BrahmasAnubis16-12vs VillainousMirage16-14vs Iowa StormboarAncient14-16