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Predictions / paiN Academy vs Sementes do Mal · match preview
paiN Academy vs Sementes do Mal: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 6
paiN Academy
World #– · 30-44
VS
2026-09-23 22:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · Best of 3
Sementes do Mal
World #– · 0-5
CCT 2026 South America Series 6 · Best of 3
65%35%
The call · high confidence
paiN Academy are favoured: our model gives them 65% against Sementes do Mal. No odds yet. Record clearly favours paiN Academy, form clearly favours paiN Academy, firepower clearly favours paiN Academy.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
paiN AcademypullSementes do Mal
Team strength1446
142455/45 PAI
Track record30–44
0–589/11 PAI
Recent formLWWLL
LLLLL82/18 PAI
Roster rating1.07
0.8299/1 PAI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 72% our own signal (178 maps of paiN Academy, 10 of Sementes do Mal).
Bottom line: paiN Academy to beat Sementes do Mal, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingspaiN Academy · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Sementes do Mal · avg 0.82 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
paiN Academy
Sementes do Mal
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsQUIQUINTESSÊNCIA#1591-20-2
paiN Academy vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Aug 16LCache10-13Anubis13-4Dust28-13Sementes do Mal vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Sep 19LCache5-13Mirage3-13
Grêmio#1905-40-2
paiN Academy vs Grêmio
Sep 2WMirage13-9Inferno11-13Dust213-7Aug 4LInferno18-22Mirage13-7Cache10-13Jul 22WNuke16-13Dust29-13Cache13-4Sementes do Mal vs Grêmio
Aug 26LInferno6-13Mirage2-13MEIMEIA NOITE2-10-2
paiN Academy vs MEIA NOITE
Aug 6WMirage13-8Inferno2-13Cache13-11Sementes do Mal vs MEIA NOITE
Aug 27Lseries0-2Map lab
paiN Academy62%to win the Bo3 · most likely paiN Academy 2-0
If the veto goes
paiN Academy 62%how the series ends38% Sementes do Mal
38%2-014%
24%2-124%
paiN Academy64%21-23vsSementes do Mal36%0-3
48%Win0%
58%CT26%
44%T24%
53%Pistol17%
81%Conv100%
paiN Academy60%3-6vsSementes do Mal40%0-3
33%Win0%
53%CT48%
41%T28%
33%Pistol33%
100%Conv100%
paiN Academy50%14-9thinSementes do Mal50%0-0
61%Win–
51%CT–
58%T–
52%Pistol–
88%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
paiN AcademyMirageSementes do Mal
58%CT side26%
44%T side24%
53%Pistol17%
81%After win100%
15%After loss20%
paiN AcademyCacheSementes do Mal
53%CT side48%
41%T side28%
33%Pistol33%
100%After win100%
17%After loss25%
paiN AcademyAnubisSementes do Mal
51%CT side–
58%T side–
52%Pistol–
88%After win–
14%After loss–
Pistol rounds51% · 25% · paiN Academy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 100% · Sementes do Mal keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 22% · Sementes do Mal fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, paiN Academy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPAISEM
AncientPAI ban0%0-3n/a0g
Sementes do Mal on Ancient
no recent maps
NukeSEM ban33%7-14n/a0g
paiN Academy on Nuke
W
DAMAJUANA13–421d agoL
Imperial3–1326d agoL
Keyd Stars4–131mo agoWUNO MILLE13–101mo agoL
ALKA13–161mo agoL
Fluxo6–132mo agoWGrêmio16–132mo agoLFake do Biru8–132mo agoSementes do Mal on Nuke
no recent maps
MiragePAI pick48%21-230%0-3
CacheSEM pick33%3-60%0-3
InfernoPAI ban48%10-110%0-1
paiN Academy on Inferno
LGrêmio11–1318d agoL
Isurus10–1325d agoLMEIA NOITE2–132mo agoLGrêmio18–222mo agoW
Red Feet19–163mo agoL
BESTIA Academy7–133mo agoLALKA8–133mo agoWex-KRÜ13–84mo agoSementes do Mal on Inferno
LGrêmio6–1325d agoDust2SEM ban37%18-310%0-1
Anubisdecider61%14-9n/a0g
paiN Academy on Anubis
L
Yawara16–1917d agoWQUINTESSÊNCIA13–41mo agoLKeyd Stars6–131mo agoWUNO MILLE16–141mo agoL
ODDIK5–132mo agoLUNO MILLE11–132mo agoWFake do Biru13–92mo agoWFluxo13–13mo agoSementes do Mal on Anubis
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: paiN Academy Ancient · Sementes do Mal Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
paiN Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/75 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 75 maps they won, 21 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs FluxoAnubisfrom 12 downvs FURIA feMiragefrom 8 downvs YawaraDust2from 7 downvs Fake do BiruAnubisfrom 6 downvs Red FeetInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/103 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 103 maps they lost, 29 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ALKANukeled 9 · lost 13-16vs IsurusInfernoled 7 · lost 10-13vs R2Nukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs VascoDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs FluxoNukeled 6 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FluxoAnubisfrom 12 down · won 13-1
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ALKANukeled 9 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs CharradosInferno13-16vs Bad LuckNuke16-12vs ex-KRÜDust216-13vs UNO MILLEMirage17-19vs UNO MILLEMirage14-16
Sementes do Mal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/8 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 2 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13vs RUSHMirageled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi13% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT13% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample