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Predictions / aimclub vs INFURITY · match preview
aimclub vs INFURITY: CS2 match prediction · Tipsport Open Cup 2
aimclub
World #173 · 13-30
VS
2026-09-23 11:00 UTC
Tipsport Open Cup 2 · Best of 3
INFURITY
World #– · 2-4
Tipsport Open Cup 2 · Best of 3
47%53%
54%
1.712.01Market · 13 books
46%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 47–53. Bookmakers lean aimclub at 54%. Strength slightly favours INFURITY, record slightly favours INFURITY, form slightly favours INFURITY.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
aimclubpullINFURITY
Team strength1424
149565/35 INF
Track record13–30
2–460/40 INF
Recent formLLLWL
WLLLL64/36 INF
Roster rating0.96
1.0153/47 INF
Bookmakers imply 54% for aimclub (1.71 / 2.01); we land 7 points lower at 47%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 74% our own signal (90 maps of aimclub, 11 of INFURITY).
Bottom line: INFURITY to beat aimclub, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsaimclub · avg 0.96 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
INFURITY · avg 1.01 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
aimclub
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Johnny Speeds#601-20-1
INFURITY vs Johnny Speeds
Jan 23LNuke4-13
BIG Academy0-22-4
aimclub vs BIG Academy
Mar 19LAncient9-13Mirage6-13INFURITY vs BIG Academy
May 4LAncient8-13Inferno13-9Overpass7-13Mar 25LInferno11-13Dust213-9Ancient10-13Map lab
INFURITY58%to win the Bo3 · most likely INFURITY 2-0
If the veto goes
aimclub 42%how the series ends58% INFURITY
18%2-033%
24%2-124%
aimclub39%6-13vsINFURITY61%2-2
32%Win50%
46%CT48%
45%T56%
53%Pistol50%
75%Conv100%
aimclub45%6-11vsINFURITY55%1-0
35%Win100%
45%CT42%
45%T80%
41%Pistol100%
86%Conv100%
aimclub50%1-1thinINFURITY50%0-0
50%Win–
71%CT–
33%T–
75%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
aimclubInfernoINFURITY
46%CT side48%
45%T side56%
53%Pistol50%
75%After win100%
17%After loss25%
aimclubDust2INFURITY
45%CT side42%
45%T side80%
41%Pistol100%
86%After win100%
5%After loss–
aimclubCacheINFURITY
71%CT side–
33%T side–
75%Pistol–
100%After win–
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds49% · 60% · INFURITY win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 100% · INFURITY keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol10% · 25% · INFURITY fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, aimclub vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapAIMINF
NukeAIM ban33%1-267%2-1
MirageINF ban33%7-14n/a0g
aimclub on Mirage
L
9INE7–136d agoW
Young TigeRES16–142mo agoL
Noir Verse6–133mo agoL
fnatic11–133mo agoL
BASEMENT BOYS8–135mo agoWBASEMENT BOYS13–85mo agoL
HEROIC Academy17–195mo agoW
Eternal Fire13–56mo agoINFURITY on Mirage
no recent maps
InfernoAIM pick32%6-1350%2-2
Dust2INF pick35%6-11100%1-0
AnubisAIM ban57%4-3n/a0g
aimclub on Anubis
W9INE13–66d agoWyngods22–195mo agoL
BRUTE10–135mo agoW
MOUZ NXT13–76mo agoL
HYPERSPIRIT5–136mo agoLHYPERSPIRIT3–137mo agoW
Diamant13–77mo agoINFURITY on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientINF ban31%5-110%0-2
Cachedecider50%1-1n/a0g
INFURITY on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: aimclub Nuke · INFURITY Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
aimclub
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/32 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 32 maps they won, 8 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs INFINITEMiragefrom 5 downvs ADNAncientfrom 5 downvs Eternal FireMiragefrom 5 downvs NexusDust2from 4 downvs Young TigeRESMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/58 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 58 maps they lost, 20 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs yngodsDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs AaBOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs Spirit AcademyDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs FaZeOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13vs fnaticMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs INFINITEMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs yngodsDust2led 7 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs PrestigeInferno13-16vs NexusInferno14-16vs HEROIC AcademyMirage17-19vs yngodsAnubis22-19vs BASEMENT BOYSDust216-13
INFURITY
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/5 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 5 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/6 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 3 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Johnny SpeedsNukeled 3 · lost 4-13vs BIG AcademyInfernoled 3 · lost 11-13vs BIG AcademyAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 2 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Johnny SpeedsNukeled 3 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi18% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT18% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample