Too close to call. Our model has it 50–50. Bookmakers lean aimclub at 75%. Record slightly favours aimclub, firepower slightly favours Diamant, head-to-head slightly favours aimclub.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Diamantpullaimclub
Team strength1449
142455/45 DIA
Track record2–5
13–3061/39 AIM
Recent formLLWLL
LLLWL56/44 DIA
Roster rating1.04
0.9668/32 DIA
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 AIM
Bookmakers imply 25% for Diamant (3.77 / 1.25); we land 25 points higher at 50%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 76% our own signal (13 maps of Diamant, 90 of aimclub). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: Diamant to beat aimclub, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings
Diamant · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
aimclub · avg 0.96 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Diamant52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Diamant 2-1
If the veto goes
Diamant 52%how the series ends48% aimclub
26%2-022%
26%2-126%
Map 1AncientDiamant pick
Diamant63%2-1vsaimclub37%5-11
67%Win31%
76%CT48%
47%T47%
67%Pistol50%
100%Conv88%
Map 2Mirageaimclub pick
Diamant41%0-3vsaimclub59%7-14
0%Win33%
50%CT50%
25%T43%
67%Pistol43%
75%Conv83%
Map 3Cachedecider
Diamant50%0-0thinaimclub50%1-1
–Win50%
–CT71%
–T33%
–Pistol75%
–Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
DiamantAncientaimclub
76%CT side48%
47%T side47%
67%Pistol50%
100%After win88%
50%After loss6%
DiamantMirageaimclub
50%CT side50%
25%T side43%
67%Pistol43%
75%After win83%
0%After loss17%
DiamantCacheaimclub
–CT side71%
–T side33%
–Pistol75%
–After win100%
–After loss0%
Pistol rounds67% · 47% · Diamant win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol25% · 12% · Diamant fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Diamant vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
Each team's usual first ban: Diamant Inferno · aimclub Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Diamant
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/3 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 1 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs aimclubAncientfrom 4 down