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Predictions / BASEMENT BOYS vs GBC · match preview
BASEMENT BOYS vs GBC: CS2 match prediction · LeonBet Masters Season 1
BASEMENT BOYS
World #97 · 42-38
VS
2026-09-24 15:00 UTC
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
GBC
World #– · 0-2
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 1
88%12%
88%
1.057.5Market · 2 books
12%The call · high confidence
BASEMENT BOYS are favoured: our model gives them 88% against GBC. Bookmakers lean BASEMENT BOYS at 88%. Strength slightly favours BASEMENT BOYS, record clearly favours BASEMENT BOYS, form clearly favours BASEMENT BOYS, firepower clearly favours BASEMENT BOYS.
Likely mapsNuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BASEMENT BOYSpullGBC
Team strength1588
146567/33 BAS
Track record42–38
0–284/16 BAS
Recent formWWWWW
LL90/10 BAS
Roster rating1.1
0.76100/0 BAS
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 88% for BASEMENT BOYS (1.05 / 7.5) and we land at 88%, the same read. This read is 55% our own signal (185 maps of BASEMENT BOYS, 4 of GBC; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: BASEMENT BOYS to beat GBC, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBASEMENT BOYS · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
GBC · avg 0.76 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| winnipuxx999★ | 0.82 | 74 | 52.1% | 46% | 0.94 |
| coldpera | 0.67 | 68.1 | 62.5% | 63% | 0.89 |
| rickangel | 0.66 | 58.4 | 56.2% | 70% | 0.77 |
| SEN1K | 0.57 | 54 | 55.3% | 73% | 0.64 |
| oxygen | 0.52 | 56.6 | 51.6% | 60% | 0.55 |
Recent form
BASEMENT BOYS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
BASEMENT BOYS53%to win the map · most likely BASEMENT BOYS 1-0
If the veto goes
BASEMENT BOYS53%22-22vsGBC47%0-1
50%Win0%
54%CT8%
47%T0%
56%Pistol0%
84%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BASEMENT BOYSNukeGBC
54%CT side8%
47%T side0%
56%Pistol0%
84%After win–
24%After loss0%
Pistol rounds56% · 0% · BASEMENT BOYS win more of them, a small head start
After a lost pistol24% · 0% · BASEMENT BOYS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo1, BASEMENT BOYS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBASGBC
InfernoBAS ban41%7-10n/a0g
BASEMENT BOYS on Inferno
L
BC.Game8–132mo agoL
Alliance7–133mo agoL
fnatic5–133mo agoWBy Legends13–23mo agoL
JiJieHao12–164mo agoW
MASONIC13–44mo agoL
100 Thieves2–135mo agoL
aimclub5–135mo agoGBC on Inferno
no recent maps
CacheGBC ban67%4-20%0-1
AnubisBAS ban57%8-6n/a0g
BASEMENT BOYS on Anubis
L
QUAZAR6–1327d agoW
SINQU13–31mo agoW
Leo13–82mo agoLfnatic5–133mo agoW
Entropy13–53mo agoLJiJieHao2–134mo agoW
UNiTY22–204mo agoW
MTX13–35mo agoGBC on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageGBC ban56%18-140%0-1
AncientBAS ban52%16-15n/a0g
BASEMENT BOYS on Ancient
L
WBT Academy10–1315d agoW
Vexar13–217d agoL
EAC7–1325d agoWLavked13–727d agoLEAC16–191mo agoW
INOX Division16–121mo agoLLavked10–131mo agoL
1win10–132mo agoGBC on Ancient
no recent maps
Dust2GBC ban51%19-180%0-1
Nukedecider50%22-220%0-1
Each team's usual first ban: BASEMENT BOYS Overpass · GBC Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BASEMENT BOYS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/95 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 36 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs AcendAncientfrom 8 downvs PigeonsMiragefrom 6 downvs CSDIILITAncientfrom 6 downvs UNiTYAnubisfrom 6 downvs 777Infernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/90 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 90 maps they lost, 22 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs mellrenDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs JiJieHaoInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs EACNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs MOUZ NXTNukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs OmegaMirageled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AcendAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs mellrenDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs AaBMirage16-12vs ARCREDInferno16-13vs RebelsNuke14-16vs brazylijski luzNuke19-17vs PigeonsMirage16-13
GBC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/4 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 2 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LPNukeled 12 · lost 1-13vs FamalicãoMirageled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LPNukeled 12 · lost 1-13
Avg map margini8.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample