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Predictions / Iberian Soul vs Phantom · match preview
Iberian Soul vs Phantom: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier
Iberian Soul
World #55 · 5-6
VS
2026-09-24 17:30 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Phantom
World #73 · 53-51
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
44%56%
47%
1.951.75Market · 23 books
53%The call
Phantom are favoured: our model gives them 56% against Iberian Soul. Bookmakers lean Phantom at 53%. Strength slightly favours Phantom, firepower slightly favours Phantom.
Likely mapsAnubis · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Iberian SoulpullPhantom
Team strength1518
158464/36 PHA
Track record5–653–5150/50
Recent formLWWLW
WLLWL53/47 IBE
Roster rating1.11
1.1263/37 PHA
Bookmakers imply 47% for Iberian Soul (1.95 / 1.75); we land 3 points lower at 44%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 87% our own signal (28 maps of Iberian Soul, 232 of Phantom).
Bottom line: Phantom to beat Iberian Soul, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsIberian Soul · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Phantom · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemiga#361-22-1
Iberian Soul vs Nemiga
Sep 3LAncient13-10Nuke12-16Mirage8-13Phantom vs Nemiga
Aug 29WAncient13-11Cache11-13Dust213-5Map lab
Iberian Soul53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Iberian Soul 2-1
If the veto goes
Iberian Soul 53%how the series ends47% Phantom
26%2-024%
26%2-124%
Iberian Soul54%1-0vsPhantom46%6-8
100%Win43%
57%CT53%
75%T48%
50%Pistol43%
100%Conv75%
Iberian Soul49%1-1vsPhantom51%30-26
50%Win54%
57%CT56%
54%T46%
25%Pistol50%
0%Conv80%
Iberian Soul53%5-5vsPhantom47%25-28
50%Win47%
55%CT51%
49%T49%
40%Pistol57%
57%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Iberian SoulAnubisPhantom
57%CT side53%
75%T side48%
50%Pistol43%
100%After win75%
100%After loss13%
Iberian SoulNukePhantom
57%CT side56%
54%T side46%
25%Pistol50%
0%After win80%
0%After loss14%
Iberian SoulAncientPhantom
55%CT side51%
49%T side49%
40%Pistol57%
57%After win75%
17%After loss20%
Pistol rounds38% · 52% · Phantom win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol56% · 77% · Phantom keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 16% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Iberian Soul vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Phantom habitually bans Inferno, Iberian Soul's strongest maps (Inferno all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 81/104), not an opponent read, so expect Iberian Soul to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapIBEPHA
Dust2IBE bann/a0g48%22-24
Iberian Soul on Dust2
no recent maps
InfernoPHA ban67%4-286%6-1
AnubisIBE pick100%1-043%6-8
NukePHA pick50%1-154%30-26
MirageIBE ban50%2-245%15-18
CachePHA ban20%1-40%0-2
Iberian Soul on Cache
L
M805–1310d agoW
LP13–911d agoLM805–1311d agoL
9INE3–1321d agoL
Inner Circle7–132mo agoAncientdecider50%5-547%25-28
Each team's usual first ban: Iberian Soul Dust2 · Phantom Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Iberian Soul
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/14 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 14 maps they won, 6 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs 6666Ancientfrom 6 downvs 6666Infernofrom 3 downvs NemigaAncientfrom 3 downvs REVENIXAncientfrom 3 downvs REVENIXNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/14 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 14 maps they lost, 3 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NemigaNukeled 5 · lost 12-16vs 6666Ancientled 3 · lost 10-13vs M80Infernoled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 6666Ancientfrom 6 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NemigaNukeled 5 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs NemigaNuke12-16vs M80Ancient19-22
Phantom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/115 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 115 maps they won, 35 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 9 downvs aAaDust2from 7 downvs HEROICNukefrom 7 downvs RUSTECMiragefrom 6 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i43/117 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 117 maps they lost, 43 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs MASONICOverpassled 7 · lost 14-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 26-28vs LeoNukeled 7 · lost 10-13vs WashingtonOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi43% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT43% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITDust212-16vs FAVBETAnubis13-16vs MASONICOverpass14-16vs MASONICNuke14-16vs STATEOverpass13-16