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Predictions / Nuclear TigeRES vs ex-Zero Tenacity · match preview
Nuclear TigeRES vs ex-Zero Tenacity: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier
Nuclear TigeRES
World #56 · 71-43
VS
2026-09-25 12:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
ex-Zero Tenacity
World #83 · 65-61
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
65%35%
66%
1.412.75Market · 11 books
34%The call
Nuclear TigeRES are favoured: our model gives them 65% against ex-Zero Tenacity. Bookmakers lean Nuclear TigeRES at 66%. Form clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, firepower clearly favours Nuclear TigeRES, head-to-head clearly favours Nuclear TigeRES.
Likely mapsAnubis · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Nuclear TigeRESpullex-Zero Tenacity
Team strength1624
162951/49 EX-
Track record71–43
65–6155/45 NUC
Recent formLLLWL
LWWWW75/25 EX-
Roster rating1.11
1.1475/25 NUC
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 NUC
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 66% for Nuclear TigeRES (1.41 / 2.75) and we land at 65%, the same read. This read is 99% our own signal (266 maps of Nuclear TigeRES, 307 of ex-Zero Tenacity). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Nuclear TigeRES leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Nuclear TigeRES to beat ex-Zero Tenacity, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNuclear TigeRES · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-Zero Tenacity · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLDN★ | 1.13 | 76.4 | 76.9% | 53% | 1.19 |
| Cjoffo | 1.1 | 70.8 | 72.9% | 63% | 1.15 |
| brutmonster | 1.13 | 74.4 | 70.6% | 37% | 1.13 |
| Dragon | 1.08 | 79.3 | 71.6% | 52% | 1.12 |
| Kind0 | 1.04 | 77.9 | 72.2% | 49% | 1.12 |
Recent form
Nuclear TigeRES
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemesis#448-21-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemesis
Aug 31WDust25-13Inferno13-7Jun 17WNuke10-13Dust213-9Ancient13-7Feb 14WAncient13-7Inferno13-9+1 earlier meeting
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nemesis
Mar 17LInferno13-9Nuke9-13Mirage8-13
SINNERS#474-62-0
Nuclear TigeRES vs SINNERS
Sep 11WDust213-7Inferno13-10Sep 10LInferno13-6Dust28-13Cache13-16Feb 10LAncient13-6Dust22-13Nuke10-13+1 earlier meeting
ex-Zero Tenacity vs SINNERS
Aug 29WMirage13-7Cache13-9
Acend#572-12-3
Nuclear TigeRES vs Acend
Apr 20WInferno7-13Ancient13-6Dust213-4
Johnny Speeds#610-20-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs Johnny Speeds
Feb 10LInferno3-13Nuke10-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds
Jun 5LOverpass9-13Dust25-13
INOX Division#702-16-8
Nuclear TigeRES vs INOX Division
Sep 9WAncient13-9Dust28-13Inferno13-4ex-Zero Tenacity vs INOX Division
Sep 21WCache13-8Nuke13-11Sep 5LNuke8-13Cache13-3Dust26-13Aug 30LCache7-13Nuke5-13+3 earlier meetings
FORZE Reload#770-20-2
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
Aug 24LDust29-13Anubis3-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs FORZE Reload
Feb 19LDust29-13Mirage7-13
Sangal#852-12-1
Nuclear TigeRES vs Sangal
Jan 21WAncient13-9Mirage11-13Anubis13-3ex-Zero Tenacity vs Sangal
Mar 13WMirage11-13Inferno13-11Nuke13-10
CYBERSHOKE#897-32-0
Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE
Sep 14LDust26-13Anubis13-6Ancient10-13Sep 7WDust213-9Anubis7-13Ancient13-10Aug 24WAncient13-8Anubis13-5+1 earlier meeting
ex-Zero Tenacity vs CYBERSHOKE
Apr 28WMirage13-10Dust213-4Map lab
Nuclear TigeRES57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nuclear TigeRES 2-0
If the veto goes
Nuclear TigeRES 57%how the series ends43% ex-Zero Tenacity
41%2-013%
16%2-130%
Nuclear TigeRES67%31-15vsex-Zero Tenacity33%13-13
67%Win50%
52%CT45%
60%T52%
46%Pistol46%
88%Conv83%
Nuclear TigeRES62%21-8vsex-Zero Tenacity38%32-21
72%Win60%
56%CT55%
57%T52%
67%Pistol58%
85%Conv84%
Nuclear TigeRES34%3-2vsex-Zero Tenacity66%17-5
60%Win77%
63%CT59%
42%T60%
50%Pistol57%
100%Conv96%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Nuclear TigeRESAnubisex-Zero Tenacity
52%CT side45%
60%T side52%
46%Pistol46%
88%After win83%
12%After loss11%
Nuclear TigeRESInfernoex-Zero Tenacity
56%CT side55%
57%T side52%
67%Pistol58%
85%After win84%
5%After loss30%
Nuclear TigeRESCacheex-Zero Tenacity
63%CT side59%
42%T side60%
50%Pistol57%
100%After win96%
20%After loss16%
Pistol rounds54% · 55% · level, no edge
After a won pistol87% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol11% · 21% · ex-Zero Tenacity fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nuclear TigeRES vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
ex-Zero Tenacity habitually bans Ancient, Nuclear TigeRES's strongest maps (Ancient, Inferno, Anubis, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 125/128), not an opponent read, so expect Nuclear TigeRES to fight the veto for Ancient.
MapNUCEX-
MirageNUC ban41%11-1640%18-27
AncientEX- ban72%48-19n/a0g
Nuclear TigeRES on Ancient
LCYBERSHOKE10–139d agoL
B84–1312d agoW
BET-M13–813d agoWINOX Division13–914d agoWCYBERSHOKE13–1016d agoL
HEROIC6–1319d agoW
INFINITE13–919d agoW
Eternal Fire16–1320d agoex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
AnubisNUC pick67%31-1550%13-13
InfernoEX- pick72%21-860%32-21
NukeNUC ban41%16-2356%35-28
Dust2EX- ban45%24-2954%37-31
Cachedecider60%3-277%17-5
Each team's usual first ban: Nuclear TigeRES Overpass · ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nuclear TigeRES
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i44/154 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 154 maps they won, 44 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs 1winAnubisfrom 6 downvs SashiNukefrom 6 downvs Spirit AcademyCachefrom 6 downvs MOUZ NXTDust2from 5 downvs OxujiInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i53/112 (47%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 112 maps they lost, 53 (47%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19vs illwillInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs MOUZ NXTNukeled 8 · lost 15-19vs magicMirageled 7 · lost 15-19vs 100 ThievesAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 1winAnubisfrom 6 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYMirageled 10 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs Gentle MatesInferno15-19vs KOLESIEAncient16-13vs OramondMirage16-14vs WHITEBIRDInferno19-17vs MOUZ NXTAncient16-13
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i47/158 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 158 maps they won, 47 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 downvs HEROIC AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs LavkedDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i46/143 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 143 maps they lost, 46 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs Subtop De FranceDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16