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Predictions / SINNERS vs ex-RUBY · match preview
SINNERS vs ex-RUBY: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier
SINNERS
World #47 · 45-35
VS
2026-09-25 15:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
ex-RUBY
World #115 · 83-54
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
54%46%
64%
1.462.6Market · 23 books
36%The call
SINNERS are favoured: our model gives them 54% against ex-RUBY. Bookmakers lean SINNERS at 64%. Every factor is level between the two sides.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SINNERSpullex-RUBY
Team strength1612
162252/48 EX-
Track record45–35
83–5454/46 EX-
Recent formLLWLW
LLLWW55/45 SIN
Roster rating1.11
1.0357/43 SIN
Bookmakers imply 64% for SINNERS (1.46 / 2.6); we land 10 points lower at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (172 maps of SINNERS, 342 of ex-RUBY).
Bottom line: SINNERS to beat ex-RUBY, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSINNERS · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-RUBY · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| relaxxie★ | 1.07 | 82.1 | 70.6% | 52% | 1.13 |
| sowalio | 1.09 | 77 | 71.2% | 57% | 1.11 |
| sh1nejezzz | 1.06 | 69.5 | 74.5% | 62% | 1.1 |
| 1eeR | 0.9 | 71.7 | 72.1% | 51% | 1.03 |
| tommy | 0.72 | 55.6 | 67.7% | 32% | 0.78 |
Recent form
SINNERS
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
magic#181-22-0
SINNERS vs magic
Feb 3LAncient10-13Mirage13-7Dust28-13ex-RUBY vs magic
Feb 3WMirage13-4Dust213-3
GamerLegion#202-41-2
SINNERS vs GamerLegion
May 12LMirage13-10Inferno9-13Nuke8-13Feb 24LNuke7-13Inferno14-16Feb 22WMirage19-16ex-RUBY vs GamerLegion
Feb 6LDust213-11Mirage7-13Ancient3-13
Nemiga#363-46-8
SINNERS vs Nemiga
Sep 13LCache10-13Mirage10-13Sep 10LNuke17-19Dust213-11Ancient2-13Jan 30WAncient13-11Nuke13-10ex-RUBY vs Nemiga
Aug 27WNuke4-13Dust213-6Ancient13-8May 29LOverpass12-16Mirage2-13May 13LOverpass8-13Mirage13-2Ancient13-16+2 earlier meetings
K27#392-25-4
1win#402-13-4
GenOne#531-27-3
SINNERS vs GenOne
Feb 3LInferno13-6Nuke14-16Dust210-13ex-RUBY vs GenOne
Aug 28WDust213-10Cache13-11Jul 29LDust210-13Cache13-9Ancient10-13May 23WDust211-13Nuke13-7Ancient13-6+1 earlier meeting
Nuclear TigeRES#566-43-2
SINNERS vs Nuclear TigeRES
Sep 11LDust27-13Inferno10-13Sep 10WInferno6-13Dust213-8Cache16-13Feb 10WAncient6-13Dust213-2Nuke13-10+1 earlier meeting
Acend#572-04-1
SINNERS vs Acend
Feb 19WAncient16-14Mirage13-2Map lab
ex-RUBY55%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-RUBY 2-0
If the veto goes
SINNERS 45%how the series ends55% ex-RUBY
22%2-028%
24%2-126%
SINNERS48%21-14vsex-RUBY52%50-31
60%Win62%
55%CT55%
53%T51%
56%Pistol49%
79%Conv86%
SINNERS46%21-15vsex-RUBY54%50-30
58%Win63%
51%CT54%
54%T51%
50%Pistol53%
78%Conv75%
SINNERS47%5-7vsex-RUBY53%4-5
42%Win44%
50%CT48%
46%T51%
54%Pistol56%
62%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SINNERSMirageex-RUBY
55%CT side55%
53%T side51%
56%Pistol49%
79%After win86%
19%After loss17%
SINNERSDust2ex-RUBY
51%CT side54%
54%T side51%
50%Pistol53%
78%After win75%
20%After loss20%
SINNERSCacheex-RUBY
50%CT side48%
46%T side51%
54%Pistol56%
62%After win80%
18%After loss38%
Pistol rounds53% · 51% · level, no edge
After a won pistol76% · 80% · ex-RUBY keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 19% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, SINNERS vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSINEX-
AnubisSIN bann/a0g57%8-6
SINNERS on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoEX- ban43%9-120%0-1
MirageSIN pick60%21-1462%50-31
Dust2EX- pick58%21-1563%50-30
NukeSIN ban39%9-1458%37-27
AncientEX- ban55%17-1452%32-29
Each team's usual first ban: SINNERS Anubis · ex-RUBY Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
SINNERS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/93 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 93 maps they won, 29 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs The Last ResortDust2from 11 downvs 1winDust2from 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersDust2from 6 downvs Johnny SpeedsMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/79 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 23 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19vs TrickedMirageled 6 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs SpiritMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Gentle MatesInfernoled 8 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs GenOneNuke14-16vs AcendAncient16-14vs GamerLegionMirage19-16vs GamerLegionInferno14-16vs ECSTATICAncient22-20
ex-RUBY
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i56/200 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 200 maps they won, 56 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs Nuclear TigeRESMiragefrom 10 downvs los kogutosOverpassfrom 9 downvs K27Dust2from 8 downvs AMAncientfrom 7 downvs STATEAnubisfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/142 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 142 maps they lost, 47 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RUSTECOverpassled 8 · lost 13-16vs LavkedNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs WalczakiAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs NemigaAncientled 7 · lost 13-16vs INFINITEAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Nuclear TigeRESMiragefrom 10 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RUSTECOverpassled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 49Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 49 went to overtime.vs AMMirage16-13vs KOLESIENuke19-17vs Johnny SpeedsOverpass19-17vs FORZE ReloadAncient16-12vs MASONICMirage16-12