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Predictions / STATE vs overTIME · match preview
STATE vs overTIME: CS2 match prediction · Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals
STATE
World #141 · 38-37
VS
2026-10-24 09:00 UTC
Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · Best of 3
overTIME
World #– · 1-2
Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · Best of 3
58%42%
The call
STATE are favoured: our model gives them 58% against overTIME. No odds yet. Form slightly favours STATE, firepower clearly favours STATE.
Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
STATEpulloverTIME
Team strength1520
149256/44 STA
Track record38–37
1–253/47 STA
Recent formLWLWL
LWL57/43 STA
Roster rating1.1
1.0472/28 STA
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 70% our own signal (175 maps of STATE, 9 of overTIME).
Bottom line: STATE to beat overTIME, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSTATE · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
overTIME · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kizzzi★ | 1.07 | 93.6 | 72.8% | 61% | 1.26 |
| m4tthi | 1.18 | 76.1 | 71.5% | 39% | 1.14 |
| sk1tt | 0.95 | 83.6 | 75.3% | 43% | 1.09 |
| Arielek | 0.85 | 61.2 | 73.8% | 71% | 0.86 |
| patrikinho | 0.73 | 53.3 | 67.9% | 65% | 0.84 |
Recent form
STATE
overTIME
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Lilmix#1981-42-1
overTIME vs Lilmix
Sep 26WMirage1-13Ancient13-10Anubis13-3Map lab
overTIME55%to win the Bo3 · most likely overTIME 2-1
If the veto goes
STATE 45%how the series ends55% overTIME
24%2-025%
20%2-130%
STATE55%23-13vsoverTIME45%0-1
64%Win0%
55%CT50%
53%T42%
56%Pistol0%
90%Conv–
STATE44%3-7vsoverTIME56%1-1
30%Win50%
40%CT67%
59%T50%
40%Pistol75%
100%Conv67%
STATE40%13-20vsoverTIME60%2-1
39%Win67%
45%CT56%
49%T42%
50%Pistol83%
88%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
STATENukeoverTIME
55%CT side50%
53%T side42%
56%Pistol0%
90%After win–
13%After loss0%
STATEAnubisoverTIME
40%CT side67%
59%T side50%
40%Pistol75%
100%After win67%
17%After loss100%
STATEAncientoverTIME
45%CT side56%
49%T side42%
50%Pistol83%
88%After win100%
12%After loss0%
Pistol rounds51% · 67% · overTIME win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol90% · 88% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol13% · 25% · overTIME fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, STATE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSTAOVE
Dust2STA bann/a0gn/a0g
STATE on Dust2
no recent maps
overTIME on Dust2
no recent maps
CacheOVE ban56%5-4n/a0g
STATE on Cache
L
HOTU12–1615d agoL
G2 Ares15–1926d agoW
Famalicão13–1127d agoW
Illyrians13–1129d agoW
KAMUI13–71mo agoL
9INE7–132mo agoLG2 Ares14–162mo agoW
ENCE13–82mo agooverTIME on Cache
no recent maps
NukeSTA pick64%23-130%0-1
AnubisOVE pick30%3-750%1-1
MirageSTA ban41%12-1733%1-2
InfernoOVE ban41%13-19n/a0g
STATE on Inferno
LFamalicão10–1327d agoL
ex-Zero Tenacity9–1329d agoLex-Zero Tenacity9–132mo agoW
GenOne13–32mo agoL
Lazer Cats19–223mo agoW
MASQ13–84mo agoW
Fortress13–65mo agoL
100 Thieves6–135mo agooverTIME on Inferno
no recent maps
Ancientdecider39%13-2067%2-1
Each team's usual first ban: STATE Dust2 · overTIME Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
STATE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/84 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 84 maps they won, 34 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs Johnny SpeedsTrainfrom 7 downvs ex-Zero TenacityOverpassfrom 6 downvs KAMUICachefrom 6 downvs G2 AresAncientfrom 6 downvs TNCOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i40/91 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 91 maps they lost, 40 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 9INECacheled 8 · lost 7-13vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUBYAnubisled 7 · lost 10-13vs AcendAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs QWENTRYNukeled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Johnny SpeedsTrainfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 9INECacheled 8 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs FORZE ReloadNuke12-16vs PhantomOverpass16-13vs AaBAnubis13-16vs Johnny SpeedsTrain16-14vs megoshortTrain17-19
overTIME
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/4 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 1 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs LilmixAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/5 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 5 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LilmixAncientfrom 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample