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Predictions / Butterfly vs Lavked · match preview
Butterfly vs Lavked: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 11
Butterfly
World #114 · 21-19
VS
2026-10-22 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
Lavked
World #135 · 67-58
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
52%48%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Butterfly, form slightly favours Lavked, firepower clearly favours Lavked, head-to-head slightly favours Lavked.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ButterflypullLavked
Team strength1545
150758/42 BUT
Track record21–19
67–5851/49 BUT
Recent formLWLLL
LWWWW67/33 LAV
Roster rating1.08
1.189/11 LAV
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 LAV
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (92 maps of Butterfly, 294 of Lavked). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Lavked leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Butterfly to beat Lavked, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsButterfly · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.33iStar gap: the best player rates 0.33 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Lavked · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.02iStar gap: the best player rates 0.02 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| azukay★ | 0.99 | 75.7 | 71.9% | 58% | 1.12 |
| xm1nd | 1.18 | 72.9 | 72.6% | 37% | 1.12 |
| k4nfuz | 1.01 | 69.6 | 72.9% | 65% | 1.1 |
| 1NVISIBLEE | 0.92 | 80.8 | 68.5% | 57% | 1.08 |
| takanashi | 0.9 | 68.8 | 66.8% | 54% | 1.08 |
Recent form
Butterfly
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
1win#144-01-2
Lavked vs 1win
Jun 3LOverpass8-13Mirage13-8Anubis8-13
K27#460-10-2
Butterfly vs K27
Sep 6LNuke3-13Lavked vs K27
Apr 1LMirage10-13Dust212-16
Nemesis#471-20-2
Butterfly vs Nemesis
Sep 14LDust213-9Inferno9-13Nuke9-13Lavked vs Nemesis
May 29LMirage9-13Nuke2-13
Nuclear TigeRES#500-40-4
Black Phoenix#553-33-4
Lavked vs Black Phoenix
Sep 18LAnubis3-13Dust26-13Aug 23WMirage16-13Nuke13-8Aug 6LDust26-13Anubis13-9Mirage13-16
ex-Zero Tenacity#670-22-3
Butterfly vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Oct 2LInferno11-13Mirage2-13
ex-RUSTEC#705-42-1
Butterfly vs ex-RUSTEC
Oct 18WDust213-16Nuke13-11Oct 6LDust213-9Inferno10-13Mirage9-13Aug 5WCache13-10Nuke14-16Dust213-10Lavked vs ex-RUSTEC
Jul 23WDust25-13Mirage13-9Anubis13-7
UPGRADE#742-02-2
Butterfly vs UPGRADE
Oct 14WAncient13-3Dust213-11Map lab
Butterfly56%to win the Bo3 · most likely Butterfly 2-0
If the veto goes
Butterfly 56%how the series ends44% Lavked
31%2-019%
25%2-125%
Butterfly51%9-5vsLavked49%26-16
64%Win62%
52%CT53%
59%T53%
39%Pistol52%
82%Conv84%
Butterfly60%9-4vsLavked40%45-34
69%Win57%
71%CT56%
44%T48%
65%Pistol51%
76%Conv80%
Butterfly50%13-10vsLavked50%32-25
57%Win56%
61%CT57%
42%T45%
43%Pistol46%
90%Conv84%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ButterflyAncientLavked
52%CT side53%
59%T side53%
39%Pistol52%
82%After win84%
24%After loss20%
ButterflyMirageLavked
71%CT side56%
44%T side48%
65%Pistol51%
76%After win80%
0%After loss14%
ButterflyNukeLavked
61%CT side57%
42%T side45%
43%Pistol46%
90%After win84%
4%After loss18%
Pistol rounds48% · 49% · level, no edge
After a won pistol83% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol10% · 17% · Lavked fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Butterfly vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBUTLAV
AnubisBUT ban0%0-148%13-14
CacheLAV ban75%3-10%0-1
Butterfly on Cache
L
QUAZAR10–1327d agoW
Leo13–102mo agoWex-RUSTEC13–103mo agoW
benched gods13–103mo agoLavked on Cache
L
megoshort14–163mo agoAncientBUT pick64%9-562%26-16
MirageLAV pick69%9-457%45-34
InfernoBUT ban11%2-1626%5-14
Dust2LAV ban65%11-649%29-30
Nukedecider57%13-1056%32-25
Each team's usual first ban: Butterfly Anubis · Lavked Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Butterfly
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/47 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 47 maps they won, 19 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs UPGRADEAncientfrom 10 downvs UPGRADEDust2from 8 downvs SAW YoungstersNukefrom 7 downvs Black PhoenixNukefrom 6 downvs GenOneNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/43 (51%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 43 maps they lost, 22 (51%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ARCREDInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKEAncientled 9 · lost 8-13vs LavkedAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs Iberian SoulInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs BET-MInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ARCREDInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs ex-RUSTECNuke14-16vs G2 AresMirage12-16vs G2 AresInferno14-16vs SAW YoungstersInferno13-16vs 1winMirage19-17
Lavked
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i57/153 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 153 maps they won, 57 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs HYPERSPIRITDust2from 11 downvs PCIFICAnubisfrom 10 downvs ASTRALDust2from 8 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs ex-RUBYNukefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i42/139 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 139 maps they lost, 42 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16vs ex-6666Nukeled 10 · lost 8-13vs NemigaAnubisled 9 · lost 5-13vs ARCREDMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs UNiTYMirageled 8 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HYPERSPIRITDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 38Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 38 went to overtime.vs ex-RUBYAncient16-14vs ESCAncient13-16vs PhantomMirage16-14vs K27Dust212-16vs QUAZARNuke12-16