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Predictions / ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC · match preview
ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUSTEC: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 11
ex-Zero Tenacity
World #67 · 74-68
VS
2026-10-23 08:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
ex-RUSTEC
World #70 · 48-31
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
58%42%
49%
1.841.8Market · 1 books
51%The call
ex-Zero Tenacity are favoured: our model gives them 58% against ex-RUSTEC. Bookmakers lean ex-RUSTEC at 51%. Every factor is level between the two sides.
Likely mapsCache · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-Zero Tenacitypullex-RUSTEC
Team strength1617
159854/46 EX-
Track record74–68
48–3151/49 EX-
Recent formLWWLW
WLLWL53/47 EX-
Roster rating1.15
1.1257/43 EX-
Head-to-head2 maps2 maps50/50
Bookmakers imply 49% for ex-Zero Tenacity (1.84 / 1.8); we land 9 points higher at 58%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 99% our own signal (345 maps of ex-Zero Tenacity, 287 of ex-RUSTEC). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ex-Zero Tenacity leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ex-Zero Tenacity to beat ex-RUSTEC, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsex-Zero Tenacity · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLDN★ | 1.13 | 77.3 | 75.9% | 53% | 1.2 |
| Cjoffo | 1.11 | 70.7 | 73.2% | 63% | 1.16 |
| Dragon | 1.09 | 79.5 | 72.8% | 51% | 1.15 |
| brutmonster | 1.13 | 74.4 | 70.7% | 37% | 1.13 |
| Kind0 | 1.03 | 77 | 71.9% | 49% | 1.11 |
ex-RUSTEC · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bl1x1★ | 1.07 | 75.6 | 73.9% | 63% | 1.2 |
| youka | 1.23 | 73.5 | 72.4% | 38% | 1.19 |
| yiksrezo | 1.11 | 79.8 | 72.3% | 68% | 1.18 |
| jakekeS | 0.93 | 68.3 | 73.4% | 55% | 1.02 |
| Brilliance | 0.86 | 70.5 | 69.2% | 56% | 0.99 |
Recent form
ex-Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nuclear TigeRES#501-42-3
Black Phoenix#558-04-10
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Black Phoenix
Sep 28WDust213-11Cache13-11Sep 22WAnubis13-8Dust213-10Sep 2WAnubis13-8Dust213-7+1 earlier meeting
ex-RUSTEC vs Black Phoenix
Oct 14LDust28-13Cache7-13Oct 3Lseries0-2Sep 27LDust27-13Anubis6-13+3 earlier meetings
Metizport#591-20-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Metizport
Sep 13LCache6-13Nuke16-14Inferno9-13ex-RUSTEC vs Metizport
Oct 20LAnubis7-13Nuke9-13
FORZE Reload#802-30-4
INOX Division#846-80-4
ex-Zero Tenacity vs INOX Division
Sep 21WCache13-8Nuke13-11Sep 5LNuke8-13Cache13-3Dust26-13Aug 30LCache7-13Nuke5-13+3 earlier meetings
UNiTY#861-42-1
ex-RUSTEC vs UNiTY
Jul 28WDust213-6Inferno8-13Mirage13-8
Inner Circle Academy#870-20-4
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Inner Circle Academy
Aug 17LAnubis7-13Nuke8-13
Leo#883-44-1
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Leo
Oct 5LNuke10-13Dust213-11Cache5-13May 25WAnubis13-7Nuke13-7Mar 5LDust25-13Inferno6-13Map lab
ex-Zero Tenacity63%to win the Bo3 · most likely ex-Zero Tenacity 2-0
If the veto goes
ex-Zero Tenacity 63%how the series ends37% ex-RUSTEC
37%2-013%
26%2-124%
ex-Zero Tenacity73%23-9vsex-RUSTEC27%7-8
72%Win47%
56%CT55%
60%T52%
64%Pistol53%
88%Conv94%
ex-Zero Tenacity51%43-34vsex-RUSTEC49%26-21
56%Win55%
51%CT55%
54%T50%
54%Pistol48%
81%Conv82%
ex-Zero Tenacity52%36-33vsex-RUSTEC48%20-20
52%Win50%
56%CT56%
46%T42%
52%Pistol50%
81%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ex-Zero TenacityCacheex-RUSTEC
56%CT side55%
60%T side52%
64%Pistol53%
88%After win94%
17%After loss36%
ex-Zero TenacityDust2ex-RUSTEC
51%CT side55%
54%T side50%
54%Pistol48%
81%After win82%
17%After loss14%
ex-Zero TenacityNukeex-RUSTEC
56%CT side56%
46%T side42%
52%Pistol50%
81%After win85%
27%After loss18%
Pistol rounds55% · 50% · ex-Zero Tenacity win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol21% · 18% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-Zero Tenacity vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEX-EX-
AncientEX- bann/a0g64%7-4
ex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoEX- ban62%36-2253%9-8
CacheEX- pick72%23-947%7-8
Dust2EX- pick56%43-3455%26-21
AnubisEX- ban50%13-1372%23-9
MirageEX- ban41%21-3050%11-11
Nukedecider52%36-3350%20-20
Each team's usual first ban: ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient · ex-RUSTEC Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i55/178 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 178 maps they won, 55 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs BIG AcademyCachefrom 8 downvs Nuclear TigeRESInfernofrom 8 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i54/159 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 159 maps they lost, 54 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs FOKUSCacheled 8 · lost 13-16vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PCIFICInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/103 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 34 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs IllyriansAnubisfrom 10 downvs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs BERGNukefrom 8 downvs GamerLegionDust2from 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/81 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 81 maps they lost, 29 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 8 · lost 16-19vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs Saint SinnersDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16