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Predictions / BRUTE vs BAKS · match preview
BRUTE vs BAKS: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 11
BRUTE
World #109 · 46-41
VS
2026-10-23 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
BAKS
World #99 · 22-19
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
60%40%
53%
1.721.97Market · 1 books
47%The call
BRUTE are favoured: our model gives them 60% against BAKS. Bookmakers lean BRUTE at 53%. Strength slightly favours BRUTE, firepower slightly favours BAKS.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
BRUTEpullBAKS
Team strength1591
153861/39 BRU
Track record46–4122–1950/50
Recent formLWWWL
WLWLL52/48 BRU
Roster rating1.11
1.0864/36 BAK
Bookmakers imply 53% for BRUTE (1.72 / 1.97); we land 7 points higher at 60%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (202 maps of BRUTE, 102 of BAKS).
Bottom line: BRUTE to beat BAKS, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBRUTE · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BAKS · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
BRUTE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BET-M#792-22-0
BAKS vs BET-M
Jul 28WAncient13-8Inferno13-6
INOX Division#840-40-2
BAKS vs INOX Division
Sep 22LInferno5-13Cache13-16
Leo#880-20-2
BRUTE vs Leo
Apr 7LNuke7-13Dust23-13BAKS vs Leo
Sep 26LCache9-13Nuke10-13
Fire Flux#961-22-1
BRUTE vs Fire Flux
Apr 15LDust210-13Anubis13-8Mirage12-16BAKS vs Fire Flux
Aug 14WDust213-6Inferno7-13Cache13-8
G2 Ares#1052-14-2
BRUTE vs G2 Ares
Sep 15WAncient6-13Cache13-11Mirage13-5
STATE#1410-22-1
BRUTE vs STATE
Apr 28LInferno10-13Anubis8-13BAKS vs STATE
Sep 25WNuke6-13Mirage13-7
MOUZ NXT#1503-22-0
BAKS vs MOUZ NXT
Aug 30WNuke13-11Dust213-5EX-ex-RUBY0-22-1
BRUTE vs ex-RUBY
Jan 25LMirage7-13Dust27-13BAKS vs ex-RUBY
Sep 13WCache13-6Mirage5-13Ancient13-5Map lab
BAKS60%to win the Bo3 · most likely BAKS 2-0
If the veto goes
BRUTE 40%how the series ends60% BAKS
11%2-043%
28%2-117%
BRUTE30%22-20vsBAKS70%9-3
52%Win75%
56%CT64%
45%T51%
57%Pistol63%
83%Conv80%
BRUTE38%5-5vsBAKS62%19-11
50%Win63%
41%CT56%
50%T53%
40%Pistol48%
75%Conv93%
BRUTE63%12-13vsBAKS37%4-8
48%Win33%
55%CT45%
42%T43%
46%Pistol42%
83%Conv70%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
BRUTEMirageBAKS
56%CT side64%
45%T side51%
57%Pistol63%
83%After win80%
11%After loss11%
BRUTECacheBAKS
41%CT side56%
50%T side53%
40%Pistol48%
75%After win93%
8%After loss23%
BRUTEInfernoBAKS
55%CT side45%
42%T side43%
46%Pistol42%
83%After win70%
26%After loss7%
Pistol rounds51% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol82% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol16% · 17% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, BRUTE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBRUBAK
AncientBRU ban33%4-875%6-2
AnubisBAK ban50%12-12n/a0g
BRUTE on Anubis
L
Sangal9–131d agoW
ex-666613–81d agoL
mellren10–137d agoL
Inner Circle Academy10–1326d agoL
aimclub9–1327d agoW
QUAZAR16–141mo agoL
Nemiga4–132mo agoW
1win13–112mo agoBAKS on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageBRU pick52%22-2075%9-3
CacheBAK pick50%5-563%19-11
NukeBRU ban48%10-1147%8-9
Dust2BAK ban55%26-2136%8-14
Infernodecider48%12-1333%4-8
Each team's usual first ban: BRUTE Ancient · BAKS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
BRUTE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i41/104 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 104 maps they won, 41 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs benched godsOverpassfrom 8 downvs AaBOverpassfrom 7 downvs UrsaOverpassfrom 7 downvs NEW VISIONDust2from 7 downvs Rune EatersOverpassfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/96 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 96 maps they lost, 31 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AtreidesMirageled 10 · lost 13-16vs fnaticAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13vs ASTRALAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs Fire FluxMirageled 6 · lost 12-16vs illwillInfernoled 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs benched godsOverpassfrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AtreidesMirageled 10 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs Fingers CrossedAncient14-16vs AMMirage16-14vs BebopDust216-13vs BebopAnubis19-17vs illwillInferno13-16
BAKS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/54 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 54 maps they won, 17 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 downvs CRUISER AURORAMiragefrom 10 downvs G2 AresCachefrom 10 downvs K28Dust2from 9 downvs SPARTAAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/48 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 48 maps they lost, 16 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs Black PhoenixDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs K27Cacheled 7 · lost 17-19vs G2 AresInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs LFO 10Cacheled 6 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AzuolasCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SPARTAInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs XcityInferno16-13vs ReThinkMirage26-28vs MisaNuke12-16vs SPARTAAncient19-16vs G2 AresAncient22-20