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Predictions / EAC vs ENCE · match preview
EAC vs ENCE: CS2 match prediction · Elisa BreakOut Series 2
Elisa BreakOut Series 2 · Best of 1
57%43%
61%
1.512.35Market · 1 books
39%The call
EAC are favoured: our model gives them 57% against ENCE. Bookmakers lean EAC at 61%. Form slightly favours ENCE, firepower clearly favours EAC.
Likely mapsMirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
EACpullENCE
Team strength1511151150/50
Track record29–34
41–3654/46 ENC
Recent formLLLWL
LWWLL69/31 ENC
Roster rating1.1
1.0872/28 EAC
Bookmakers imply 61% for EAC (1.51 / 2.35); we land 4 points lower at 57%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (147 maps of EAC, 167 of ENCE).
Bottom line: EAC to beat ENCE, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsEAC · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ENCE · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.02iStar gap: the best player rates 0.02 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
EAC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Alliance#230-22-0
EAC vs Alliance
Jun 13LNuke5-13Inferno7-13ENCE vs Alliance
Feb 11WMirage13-5Overpass13-10
100 Thieves#380-22-0
EAC vs 100 Thieves
Sep 23LMirage8-13Inferno16-19ENCE vs 100 Thieves
Feb 25WAncient13-6Anubis13-8
fnatic#401-41-4
Sangal#480-21-2
EAC vs Sangal
Oct 9LNuke7-13Mirage7-13
Black Phoenix#642-00-2
EAC vs Black Phoenix
Jul 24Wseries2-0ENCE vs Black Phoenix
Sep 16LAnubis11-13Cache9-13
UNiTY#782-02-2
EAC vs UNiTY
Sep 7WInferno13-8Nuke13-5LAVLavked#1226-14-1
Noir Verse#1242-11-2
EAC vs Noir Verse
Jun 13WAncient13-10Nuke6-13Mirage16-14ENCE vs Noir Verse
Aug 19LNuke13-9Mirage6-13Anubis2-13Map lab
ENCE57%to win the map · most likely ENCE 1-0
If the veto goes
EAC43%18-18vsENCE57%24-18
50%Win57%
49%CT54%
53%T51%
53%Pistol54%
84%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
EACMirageENCE
49%CT side54%
53%T side51%
53%Pistol54%
84%After win79%
24%After loss8%
Pistol rounds53% · 54% · level, no edge
After a won pistol84% · 79% · EAC keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 8% · EAC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo1, EAC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEACENC
Dust2EAC ban0%0-138%8-13
AncientENC ban52%13-1237%7-12
AnubisEAC ban39%7-1155%11-9
InfernoENC ban20%3-1253%9-8
NukeEAC ban42%11-1563%19-11
CacheENC ban73%8-344%4-5
Miragedecider50%18-1857%24-18
Each team's usual first ban: EAC Dust2 · ENCE Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
EAC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/65 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 23 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs ex-MANAMiragefrom 8 downvs BASEMENT BOYSAncientfrom 7 downvs HashirasOverpassfrom 6 downvs ex-MANAAncientfrom 6 downvs BASEMENT BOYSNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/76 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 27 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs magicAncientled 8 · lost 7-13vs fnaticCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs ALGONukeled 5 · lost 9-13vs magicMirageled 5 · lost 6-13vs OGMirageled 5 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ex-MANAMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs magicAncientled 8 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs megoshortAncient14-16vs Rune EatersAncient12-16vs HashirasOverpass16-12vs Noir VerseMirage16-14vs MetizportNuke26-28
ENCE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/86 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 86 maps they won, 29 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 downvs INFURITYNukefrom 6 downvs eLITenergyNukefrom 5 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 5 downvs 100 ThievesAnubisfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/81 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 81 maps they lost, 30 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16vs WBTNukeled 8 · lost 8-13vs SangalCacheled 8 · lost 11-13vs illwillMirageled 7 · lost 13-16vs illwillAnubisled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis20-22vs fnaticAncient19-17vs illwillMirage13-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust213-16vs fnaticOverpass14-16