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Predictions / Phantom vs ROUNDS · match preview
Phantom vs ROUNDS: CS2 match prediction · Elisa BreakOut Series 2
Phantom
World #87 · 54-55
VS
2026-10-16 14:00 UTC
Elisa BreakOut Series 2 · Best of 1
ROUNDS
World #231 · 6-17
Elisa BreakOut Series 2 · Best of 1
75%25%
The call · high confidence
Phantom are favoured: our model gives them 75% against ROUNDS. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Phantom, record slightly favours Phantom, form slightly favours Phantom, firepower slightly favours Phantom.
Likely mapsNuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
PhantompullROUNDS
Team strength1560
139972/28 PHA
Track record54–55
6–1767/33 PHA
Recent formLLLLW
LLLLL60/40 PHA
Roster rating1.1
0.9266/34 PHA
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 91% our own signal (245 maps of Phantom, 45 of ROUNDS).
Bottom line: Phantom to beat ROUNDS, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsPhantom · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ROUNDS · avg 0.92 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Phantom
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2 Ares#1304-00-1
ROUNDS vs G2 Ares
May 1LMirage3-13
Vexar#1412-03-2
Phantom vs Vexar
Jul 28WAncient13-11Nuke13-8Map lab
Phantom72%to win the map · most likely Phantom 1-0
If the veto goes
Phantom72%31-27vsROUNDS28%3-8
53%Win27%
56%CT56%
45%T44%
50%Pistol59%
81%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
PhantomNukeROUNDS
56%CT side56%
45%T side44%
50%Pistol59%
81%After win85%
14%After loss22%
Pistol rounds50% · 59% · ROUNDS win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 85% · ROUNDS keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol14% · 22% · ROUNDS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo1, Phantom vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPHAROU
InfernoPHA ban55%6-540%2-3
AnubisROU ban44%7-90%0-1
MiragePHA ban46%16-1910%1-9
Dust2ROU ban49%23-240%0-4
AncientPHA ban45%25-3050%4-4
CacheROU ban0%0-20%0-2
Each team's usual first ban: Phantom Inferno · ROUNDS Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Phantom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i39/119 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 119 maps they won, 39 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs fnaticDust2from 10 downvs G2 AresAncientfrom 9 downvs aAaDust2from 7 downvs HEROICNukefrom 7 downvs fnaticMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i45/126 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 126 maps they lost, 45 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs MASONICOverpassled 7 · lost 14-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 26-28vs LeoNukeled 7 · lost 10-13vs fnaticAncientled 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs fnaticDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FAVBETAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi42% · 35Close maps (≤3) · OT42% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 35 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITDust212-16vs FAVBETAnubis13-16vs MASONICOverpass14-16vs MASONICNuke14-16vs STATEOverpass13-16
ROUNDS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/10 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 3 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs VexarNukefrom 5 downvs SAWMiragefrom 4 downvs ENRAGEAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/31 (48%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 31 maps they lost, 15 (48%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Fire FluxAnubisled 11 · lost 2-13vs BC.GameCacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs NEXORAMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs TrainwrecksNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs Fire FluxMirageled 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs VexarNukefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Fire FluxAnubisled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs SAWMirage19-17vs TrainwrecksNuke14-16vs HAVUNuke13-16vs RaccoonsNuke16-19vs Fire FluxAncient16-14