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Predictions / ex-RUSTEC vs Saint Sinners · match preview
ex-RUSTEC vs Saint Sinners: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 12
ex-RUSTEC
World #70 · 48-31
VS
2026-10-23 17:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
Saint Sinners
World #123 · 14-13
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
67%33%
The call
ex-RUSTEC are favoured: our model gives them 67% against Saint Sinners. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, firepower slightly favours ex-RUSTEC, head-to-head slightly favours ex-RUSTEC.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
ex-RUSTECpullSaint Sinners
Team strength1598
152466/34 EX-
Track record48–31
14–1354/46 EX-
Recent formWLLWL
LWWWL55/45 SAI
Roster rating1.12
1.1157/43 EX-
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 EX-
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 94% our own signal (287 maps of ex-RUSTEC, 66 of Saint Sinners). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ex-RUSTEC leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ex-RUSTEC to beat Saint Sinners, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsex-RUSTEC · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bl1x1★ | 1.07 | 75.6 | 73.9% | 63% | 1.2 |
| youka | 1.23 | 73.5 | 72.4% | 38% | 1.19 |
| yiksrezo | 1.11 | 79.8 | 72.3% | 68% | 1.18 |
| jakekeS | 0.93 | 68.3 | 73.4% | 55% | 1.02 |
| Brilliance | 0.86 | 70.5 | 69.2% | 56% | 0.99 |
Saint Sinners · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
ex-RUSTEC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Black Phoenix#554-101-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Black Phoenix
Oct 14LDust28-13Cache7-13Oct 3Lseries0-2Sep 27LDust27-13Anubis6-13+3 earlier meetings
Saint Sinners vs Black Phoenix
Oct 18LMirage6-13Inferno13-5Dust26-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#670-20-2
ex-RUSTEC vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 18LCache5-13Mirage8-13Saint Sinners vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 27Lseries0-2
Leo#884-11-2
Saint Sinners vs Leo
Sep 23LMirage13-10Nuke8-13Ancient3-13
mellren#954-13-2
Spirit Academy#1112-00-4
ex-RUSTEC vs Spirit Academy
Aug 30WCache13-6Dust216-13
Bushido Wildcats#1130-22-1
ex-RUSTEC vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 13LNuke8-13Dust219-22Saint Sinners vs Bushido Wildcats
Oct 19WDust213-5Inferno10-13Mirage13-5JUSJust Players#1176-10-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Just Players
Aug 28WMirage11-13Dust213-6Anubis13-8Jul 25WDust213-5Mirage16-14Jul 21WMirage13-10Dust213-10Saint Sinners vs Just Players
Oct 9LAncient11-13Dust28-13
Illyrians#1242-01-2
ex-RUSTEC vs Illyrians
Oct 18WAnubis13-6Ancient13-7Saint Sinners vs Illyrians
Sep 18LMirage8-13Dust213-11Ancient10-13Map lab
ex-RUSTEC50%to win the Bo3 · most likely Saint Sinners 2-0
If the veto goes
ex-RUSTEC 50%how the series ends50% Saint Sinners
19%2-031%
31%2-119%
ex-RUSTEC42%26-21vsSaint Sinners58%11-6
55%Win65%
55%CT59%
50%T49%
48%Pistol47%
82%Conv69%
ex-RUSTEC47%11-11vsSaint Sinners53%7-6
50%Win54%
56%CT55%
48%T48%
39%Pistol46%
88%Conv67%
ex-RUSTEC62%23-9vsSaint Sinners38%3-2
72%Win60%
51%CT42%
61%T62%
61%Pistol70%
90%Conv71%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
ex-RUSTECDust2Saint Sinners
55%CT side59%
50%T side49%
48%Pistol47%
82%After win69%
14%After loss33%
ex-RUSTECMirageSaint Sinners
56%CT side55%
48%T side48%
39%Pistol46%
88%After win67%
26%After loss14%
ex-RUSTECAnubisSaint Sinners
51%CT side42%
61%T side62%
61%Pistol70%
90%After win71%
28%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol86% · 69% · ex-RUSTEC keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol21% · 23% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, ex-RUSTEC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapEX-SAI
AncientEX- ban64%7-458%7-5
CacheSAI ban47%7-80%0-1
Dust2EX- pick55%26-2165%11-6
MirageSAI pick50%11-1154%7-6
InfernoEX- ban53%9-825%1-3
NukeSAI ban50%20-2033%2-4
Anubisdecider72%23-960%3-2
Each team's usual first ban: ex-RUSTEC Ancient · Saint Sinners Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
ex-RUSTEC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/103 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 34 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 downvs IllyriansAnubisfrom 10 downvs FortressNukefrom 8 downvs BERGNukefrom 8 downvs GamerLegionDust2from 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/81 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 81 maps they lost, 29 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 8 · lost 16-19vs BET-MNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs Saint SinnersDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs SPARTACacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Noir VerseCacheled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NAVI JuniorDust2from 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 28Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 28 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs Just PlayersMirage16-14vs ex-RUBYNuke12-16vs ButterflyNuke16-14vs INOX DivisionNuke13-16
Saint Sinners
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i17/31 (55%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 31 maps they won, 17 (55%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 55% of their wins were comebacks, not 55% of all games.vs MAYBEDust2from 9 downvs Black PhoenixInfernofrom 8 downvs VexarAncientfrom 8 downvs ex-RUSTECDust2from 7 downvs LavkedAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/27 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 12 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-6666Dust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs The Last ResortInfernoled 7 · lost 6-13vs MAYBEMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs LavkedDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Spirit AcademyNukeled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MAYBEDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-6666Dust2led 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 3Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 3 went to overtime.vs Spirit AcademyNuke14-16vs mellrenNuke22-20vs MOUZ NXTDust216-13