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Predictions / Falcons Force vs Phantom Academy · match preview
Falcons Force vs Phantom Academy: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 8
Falcons Force
World #138 · 25-30
VS
2026-10-22 11:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 8 · Best of 3
Phantom Academy
World #174 · 17-20
CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 8 · Best of 3
54%46%
57%
1.62.16Market · 1 books
43%The call
Falcons Force are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Phantom Academy. Bookmakers lean Falcons Force at 57%. Every factor is level between the two sides.
Likely mapsCache · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Falcons ForcepullPhantom Academy
Team strength1485
148851/49 PHA
Track record25–30
17–2053/47 PHA
Recent formWLWLWWLWLW50/50
Roster rating1.08
1.1353/47 FAL
Bookmakers imply 57% for Falcons Force (1.6 / 2.16); we land 3 points lower at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 95% our own signal (111 maps of Falcons Force, 86 of Phantom Academy).
Bottom line: Falcons Force to beat Phantom Academy, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFalcons Force · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Phantom Academy · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Falcons Force
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2 Ares#1052-10-2
Phantom Academy vs G2 Ares
May 23LMirage10-13Inferno4-13
Misa#1254-10-2
Phantom Academy vs Misa
Sep 8LCache11-13Nuke9-13BEBBebop#2082-12-1
Falcons Force vs Bebop
Jul 27WDust23-13Cache13-6Inferno13-5Phantom Academy vs Bebop
Oct 21WDust26-13Mirage13-8Nuke13-7
Honvéd#2112-11-2
Falcons Force vs Honvéd
Aug 20WMirage13-10Ancient11-13Cache13-8Phantom Academy vs Honvéd
Jul 5LMirage13-1Dust214-16Ancient6-13
Privateer#2172-02-0
Falcons Force vs Privateer
Oct 21WNuke13-4Ancient13-2Phantom Academy vs Privateer
Aug 15WMirage13-7Ancient13-1
TrafficPills#2300-22-0
Falcons Force vs TrafficPills
Sep 11LNuke11-13Inferno9-13Phantom Academy vs TrafficPills
Sep 13WMirage13-10Cache13-10Map lab
Falcons Force57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Phantom Academy 2-1
If the veto goes
Falcons Force 57%how the series ends43% Phantom Academy
28%2-011%
29%2-132%
Falcons Force84%8-3vsPhantom Academy16%3-8
73%Win27%
66%CT48%
47%T33%
59%Pistol41%
85%Conv88%
Falcons Force34%13-11vsPhantom Academy66%15-6
54%Win71%
56%CT63%
48%T50%
52%Pistol67%
84%Conv75%
Falcons Force48%7-10vsPhantom Academy52%7-9
41%Win44%
46%CT53%
53%T49%
62%Pistol63%
81%Conv90%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Falcons ForceCachePhantom Academy
66%CT side48%
47%T side33%
59%Pistol41%
85%After win88%
11%After loss8%
Falcons ForceMiragePhantom Academy
56%CT side63%
48%T side50%
52%Pistol67%
84%After win75%
13%After loss14%
Falcons ForceAncientPhantom Academy
46%CT side53%
53%T side49%
62%Pistol63%
81%After win90%
33%After loss17%
Pistol rounds57% · 59% · level, no edge
After a won pistol83% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 13% · Falcons Force fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Falcons Force vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFALPHA
Dust2FAL ban30%3-747%7-8
InfernoPHA ban48%11-120%0-1
Falcons Force on Inferno
L
Quintessence10–133d agoL
PURE6–1315d agoW
OG13–615d agoW
aimclub13–321d agoLPURE4–1321d agoW
Fortress13–81mo agoLTrafficPills9–131mo agoW
mellren13–91mo agoPhantom Academy on Inferno
LG2 Ares4–135mo agoCacheFAL pick73%8-327%3-8
MiragePHA pick54%13-1171%15-6
NukeFAL ban19%3-1350%7-7
AnubisPHA ban56%5-450%3-3
Ancientdecider41%7-1044%7-9
Each team's usual first ban: Falcons Force Overpass · Phantom Academy Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Falcons Force
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/50 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 14 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs Young TigeRESCachefrom 8 downvs VexarAnubisfrom 6 downvs ZOTIXAncientfrom 6 downvs ENCEAnubisfrom 5 downvs BebopCachefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/60 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 23 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs SharksAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs OLDBOYS PLNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs TrafficPillsNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs FamalicãoDust2led 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Young TigeRESCachefrom 8 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AaBAncientled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs JiJieHaoInferno20-22vs FamalicãoDust212-16vs fnaticAnubis13-16vs AMAncient13-16vs SPARTAAncient16-19
Phantom Academy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/42 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 42 maps they won, 18 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 downvs antidaunAnubisfrom 10 downvs benched godsMiragefrom 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 7 downvs ImmuNeDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/42 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 14 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs WWDust2led 8 · lost 6-13vs MisaCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs Spirit AcademyAncientled 6 · lost 8-13vs TNCAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs benched godsCacheled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 13 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Noir VerseCachefrom 13 down · won 13-0
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs WWDust2led 8 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs TNCAncient12-16vs HonvédDust214-16vs benched godsMirage16-13vs ex-Zero TenacityNuke13-16vs benched godsMirage16-14