Astralis vs fnatic: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5

One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.

The market agrees: bookmakers imply 64% for Astralis (1.45 / 2.6) and we land at 66%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (171 maps of Astralis, 218 of fnatic). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: Astralis leads 2–0.

Bottom line: Astralis to beat fnatic, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.