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Astralis vs fnatic: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · Stake Ranked Episode 5

Astralis
World #16 · 41-29
VS
2026-10-27 16:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
fnatic
World #34 · 56-39
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
66%
Win probability
34%
64%
1.452.6Market · 5 booksBookmakerASTFNA1red1.452.6Epicbet1.452.6Stake1.452.6Thunderpick Row1.452.6duelbits1.452.6
36%
The call

Astralis are favoured: our model gives them 66% against fnatic. Bookmakers lean Astralis at 64%. Form slightly favours Astralis, firepower clearly favours Astralis, head-to-head clearly favours Astralis.

Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Inferno

Firepower

roster ratings

Astralis · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
Staehr★1.0982.973.4%57%1.22
phzy1.1572.672.8%30%1.14
ryu1.0473.274.2%52%1.13
cmtry0.8869.869.1%43%0.96
siuhy0.7961.467.7%50%0.92

fnatic · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
cairne★1.1479.575.2%53%1.24
jackasmo1.1180.674%61%1.2
jambo1.275.673.4%39%1.19
mazay1.0476.174.3%57%1.13
fEAR0.8568.470.8%49%0.97

Recent form

Astralis

MIBROvertimeOT6d ago1-2HOTUStompStomp13-2OvertimeOT8d ago2-1SashiOvertimeOT8d ago2-0Nemiga18d ago3-1LuminosityBlew leadBL618d ago2-1fnaticPistolsPist3/419d ago2-0BIGStompStomp13-119d ago2-1FaZePistolsPist0/6ComebackCB820d ago2-1AllianceUpsetUpsetOvertimeOT21d ago1-2100 Thieves26d ago1-2BetclicPistolsPist5/6StompStomp13-027d ago2-1FOKUS1mo ago2-0SangalPistolsPist0/6OvertimeOT1mo ago2-15starUpsetUpset1mo ago1-2BETBOOMPistolsPist3/4OvertimeOT1mo ago0-2

fnatic

PRIVATEUpsetUpsetBlew leadBL61d ago0-2PARIVISIONOvertimeOT2d ago1-2LiquidUpsetUpsetPistolsPist3/43d ago2-0HEROIC6d ago0-2HOTU8d ago2-0SashiPistolsPist3/48d ago2-0HOTUPistolsPist3/48d ago0-2HOTU12d ago2-1K27OvertimeOT13d ago2-1PhantomBlew leadBL6StompStomp13-115d ago2-1Astralis19d ago0-2AlliancePistolsPist3/419d ago2-0B8UpsetUpset20d ago2-0BIGPistolsPist5/6Blew leadBL621d ago1-2Nemesis25d ago1-2

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
19d ago Astralis2 : 0 fnatic!
⚠ Different lineup
Astralis
outHooXi, jabbi
incmtry, siuhy
9mo ago Astralis2 : 1 fnatic!
⚠ Different lineup
Astralis
outHooXi, jabbi
incmtry, siuhy
fnatic
outKRIMZ, Maden
incairne, mazay
PARIVISION#132-31-2
Astralis vs PARIVISION
Feb 1WOverpass13-11Dust213-16Ancient13-7Jan 18LDust21-13Ancient8-13
fnatic vs PARIVISION
Oct 20LCache13-10Ancient10-13Inferno14-16
FaZe#176-22-0
Astralis vs FaZe
Oct 2WAncient13-11Nuke11-13Cache13-9Mar 9WDust27-13Ancient13-3Inferno16-14Feb 17WAncient13-5Mirage13-9
fnatic vs FaZe
Mar 31WAnubis13-6Overpass13-5
Ninjas in Pyjamas#192-12-1
Astralis vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Aug 16WNuke13-3Inferno10-13Cache13-7
fnatic vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 6WCache13-6Mirage10-13Inferno13-8
B8#212-12-0
Astralis vs B8
Apr 5WMirage16-12Nuke8-13Ancient13-8
fnatic vs B8
Oct 2WCache13-9Mirage13-11
HEROIC#252-23-4
Astralis vs HEROIC
Jul 24LDust210-13Ancient10-13Mar 2WDust216-13Overpass13-10
fnatic vs HEROIC
Oct 16LCache10-13Dust23-13Sep 25LCache13-8Mirage11-13Inferno6-13Aug 9WAncient13-9Inferno13-11
Liquid#272-02-2
Astralis vs Liquid
May 12WDust213-4Ancient13-11
fnatic vs Liquid
Oct 19WInferno13-7Cache13-4Aug 5LDust210-13Anubis5-13
Alliance#291-23-4
Astralis vs Alliance
Oct 1LInferno14-16Cache13-5Nuke10-13
fnatic vs Alliance
Oct 3WCache13-5Inferno13-11Jun 14LAnubis4-13Dust219-17Ancient6-13Mar 31LAnubis9-13Inferno13-16
BIG#372-11-2
Astralis vs BIG
Oct 3WCache13-5Inferno11-13Mirage13-1
fnatic vs BIG
Oct 1LAncient13-11Inferno11-13Mirage9-13

Map lab

fnatic51%to win the Bo3 · most likely fnatic 2-1
If the veto goes
Astralis 49%how the series ends51% fnatic
34%2-015%
15%2-135%
Map 1AncientAstralis pick
Astralis70%28-9vsfnatic30%25-20
76%Win56%
65%CT53%
52%T51%
54%Pistol50%
85%Conv93%
Map 2Cachefnatic pick
Astralis49%11-3vsfnatic51%18-5
79%Win78%
68%CT58%
59%T57%
50%Pistol65%
100%Conv80%
Map 3Infernodecider
Astralis30%9-9vsfnatic70%22-9
50%Win71%
57%CT62%
49%T51%
56%Pistol50%
85%Conv94%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

AstralisAncientfnatic
65%CT side53%
52%T side51%
54%Pistol50%
85%After win93%
12%After loss11%
AstralisCachefnatic
68%CT side58%
59%T side57%
50%Pistol65%
100%After win80%
21%After loss19%
AstralisInfernofnatic
57%CT side62%
49%T side51%
56%Pistol50%
85%After win94%
50%After loss23%
Pistol rounds54% · 54% · level, no edge
After a won pistol88% · 90% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol23% · 16% · Astralis fight back and win the next round more often

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Astralis vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapASTFNA
AnubisAST ban0%0-265%24-13
Astralis on Anubis
L100 Thieves7–1326d agoLBETBOOM8–131mo ago
fnatic on Anubis
WHOTU13–412d agoLPhantom14–1615d agoWPhantom13–929d agoWEAC13–1029d agoWVirtus.pro16–132mo agoWTeletubisie13–22mo agoWFluxo13–102mo agoW666613–53mo ago
NukeFNA ban48%13-14n/a0g
Astralis on Nuke
WHOTU13–28d agoWSashi16–138d agoWNemiga13–518d agoWLuminosity13–1118d agoLFaZe11–1320d agoLAlliance10–1321d agoLBetclic14–1627d agoLSangal17–191mo ago
fnatic on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientAST pick76%28-956%25-20
Astralis on Ancient
WHOTU16–148d agoLNemiga10–1318d agoWfnatic13–319d agoWFaZe13–1120d agoW100 Thieves13–626d agoWBetclic13–827d agoWFOKUS13–81mo agoWSangal13–71mo ago
fnatic on Ancient
LPARIVISION10–132d agoWHOTU13–58d agoWSashi13–48d agoLHOTU10–138d agoLK2711–1313d agoWPhantom13–515d agoLAstralis3–1319d agoWBIG13–1121d ago
CacheFNA pick79%11-378%18-5
Astralis on Cache
LMIBR14–166d agoWNemiga13–718d agoWLuminosity13–718d agoWBIG13–519d agoWFaZe13–920d agoWAlliance13–521d agoWBetclic13–027d agoWFOKUS13–111mo ago
fnatic on Cache
LPRIVATE11–131d agoWPARIVISION13–102d agoWLiquid13–43d agoLHEROIC10–136d agoWHOTU13–1012d agoWK2719–1713d agoWAlliance13–519d agoWB813–920d ago
Dust2AST ban27%7-1947%17-19
Astralis on Dust2
LHOTU6–138d agoWfnatic13–619d agoLG26–132mo agoLFalcons11–132mo agoLMOUZ9–133mo agoLHEROIC10–133mo agoLFOKUS10–133mo agoLLegacy8–135mo ago
fnatic on Dust2
LPRIVATE17–191d agoLHEROIC3–136d agoWHOTU13–118d agoLHOTU10–138d agoLHOTU9–1312d agoLAstralis6–1319d agoWNemesis13–625d agoLPhantom3–1329d ago
MirageFNA ban42%11-1552%16-15
Astralis on Mirage
LMIBR9–136d agoWSashi13–98d agoWNemiga13–618d agoLLuminosity11–1318d agoWBIG13–119d agoLG217–191mo agoLMOUZ9–133mo agoWpaiN16–143mo ago
fnatic on Mirage
WK2713–513d agoWB813–1120d agoLBIG9–1321d agoLHEROIC11–1327d agoWJust Players13–828d agoLEAC20–2229d agoLPhantom10–1329d agoLNinjas in Pyjamas10–132mo ago
Infernodecider50%9-971%22-9
Astralis on Inferno
WMIBR13–86d agoLBIG11–1319d agoLAlliance14–1621d agoL100 Thieves10–1326d agoL5star10–131mo agoWG213–51mo agoLG27–132mo agoLNinjas in Pyjamas10–132mo ago
fnatic on Inferno
LPARIVISION14–162d agoWLiquid13–73d agoWSashi13–98d agoWPhantom13–115d agoWAlliance13–1119d agoLBIG11–1321d agoLNemesis9–1325d agoWIberian Soul13–1126d ago
Each team's usual first ban: Astralis Anubis · fnatic Nuke.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Astralis

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/92 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 92 maps they won, 20 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs BIGCachefrom 11 downvs NemigaNukefrom 8 downvs SangalAncientfrom 8 downvs MOUZAncientfrom 7 downvs EYEBALLERSAncientfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/79 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 25 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs GamerLegionInfernoled 8 · lost 14-16vs PARIVISIONDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs BETBOOMAnubisled 5 · lost 8-13vs NemigaAncientled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BIGCachefrom 11 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs fnaticMirage12-16vs NRGMirage14-16vs SpiritDust213-16vs PARIVISIONDust213-16vs HEROICDust216-13

fnatic

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i51/128 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 128 maps they won, 51 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 downvs HOTUAncientfrom 8 downvs MonteOverpassfrom 7 downvs BRUTEAnubisfrom 7 downvs Virtus.proAnubisfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i35/90 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 90 maps they lost, 35 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs PhantomMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs AllianceInfernoled 6 · lost 13-16vs illwillDust2led 6 · lost 12-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ENCEOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs GenOneDust214-16vs AstralisMirage16-12vs K27Dust216-13vs ENCEAncient17-19vs MonteOverpass19-16

Astralis vs fnatic FAQ

Who is favored to win Astralis vs fnatic?

Astralis are favored with a 66% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Astralis vs fnatic?

Bookmakers price Astralis at 1.45 and fnatic at 2.6 (implied 64% vs 36%).

When do Astralis and fnatic play?

Astralis vs fnatic is scheduled for 2026-10-27 16:00 UTC at Stake Ranked Episode 5.

Astralis vs fnatic Prediction & Odds · CS2 Match Preview · CS2OBSERVER