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Predictions / Sangal vs Metizport · match preview
Sangal vs Metizport: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier
Sangal
World #40 · 44-31
VS
2026-10-22 16:30 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3 · ★
Metizport
World #59 · 50-39
Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3 · ★
51%49%
53%
1.751.95Market · 5 books
47%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean Sangal at 53%. Firepower clearly favours Metizport.
Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SangalpullMetizport
Team strength1644164550/50
Track record44–31
50–3951/49 MET
Recent formWWLWW
WWLLW54/46 SAN
Roster rating1.13
1.1178/22 MET
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 53% for Sangal (1.75 / 1.95) and we land at 51%, the same read. This read is 97% our own signal (154 maps of Sangal, 196 of Metizport).
Bottom line: Sangal to beat Metizport, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSangal · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Metizport · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Sangal
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Ninjas in Pyjamas#192-20-1
Metizport vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 17LNuke8-13
Nemiga#240-21-4
Sangal vs Nemiga
Mar 23LNuke7-13Dust21-13
JiJieHao#443-21-2
Metizport vs JiJieHao
Mar 3LInferno5-13Ancient13-11Dust27-13
Betclic#582-00-1
Sangal vs Betclic
Oct 12WMirage13-5Anubis16-13Metizport vs Betclic
May 21LNuke2-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#671-22-1
Sangal vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Mar 13LMirage13-11Inferno11-13Nuke10-13Metizport vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Sep 13WCache13-6Nuke14-16Inferno13-9
FORZE Reload#802-01-2
Sangal vs FORZE Reload
Jan 20WMirage13-7Ancient13-10Metizport vs FORZE Reload
Jan 29LNuke5-13Overpass13-9Ancient9-13
UNiTY#862-04-1
Sangal vs UNiTY
Mar 21WAncient13-9Mirage13-11
Inner Circle Academy#872-02-0
Sangal vs Inner Circle Academy
Sep 30WNuke13-8Ancient16-13Metizport vs Inner Circle Academy
Sep 27WAnubis13-9Nuke13-9Map lab
Sangal60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Sangal 2-1
If the veto goes
Sangal 60%how the series ends40% Metizport
24%2-025%
36%2-115%
Sangal55%24-12vsMetizport45%30-19
67%Win61%
60%CT53%
52%T52%
58%Pistol45%
88%Conv89%
Sangal44%9-7vsMetizport56%7-4
56%Win64%
45%CT52%
56%T55%
44%Pistol41%
77%Conv78%
Sangal71%11-4vsMetizport29%4-4
73%Win50%
60%CT57%
53%T41%
53%Pistol50%
94%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SangalNukeMetizport
60%CT side53%
52%T side52%
58%Pistol45%
88%After win89%
23%After loss28%
SangalAnubisMetizport
45%CT side52%
56%T side55%
44%Pistol41%
77%After win78%
28%After loss31%
SangalCacheMetizport
60%CT side57%
53%T side41%
53%Pistol50%
94%After win100%
29%After loss38%
Pistol rounds54% · 45% · Sangal win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 89% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol26% · 29% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Sangal vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSANMET
InfernoSAN ban63%5-361%22-14
Dust2MET ban36%8-1436%5-9
NukeSAN pick67%24-1261%30-19
AnubisMET pick56%9-764%7-4
AncientSAN ban43%9-1258%14-10
MirageMET ban59%19-1356%15-12
Each team's usual first ban: Sangal Inferno · Metizport Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Sangal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/86 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 86 maps they won, 30 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs Lazer CatsAnubisfrom 9 downvs ENCECachefrom 8 downvs OGDust2from 8 downvs Inner Circle AcademyAncientfrom 6 downvs FORZE ReloadAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/67 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 67 maps they lost, 26 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ASTRALDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs AstralisAncientled 8 · lost 7-13vs illwillNukeled 7 · lost 17-19vs illwillMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs NAVI JuniorAnubisled 6 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lazer CatsAnubisfrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ASTRALDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs HOTUOverpass14-16vs illwillNuke17-19vs NemesisNuke14-16vs DziuseppeAncient16-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasNuke12-16
Metizport
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i37/111 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 111 maps they won, 37 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs PrestigeAncientfrom 11 downvs OGInfernofrom 9 downvs SIXSEVENDust2from 7 downvs ALGOMiragefrom 7 downvs ENCE AcademyOverpassfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/84 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 26 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NemigaMirageled 8 · lost 14-16vs K27Mirageled 7 · lost 8-13vs ex-Zero TenacityNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs FAVBETNukeled 5 · lost 17-19vs LuminosityMirageled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PrestigeAncientfrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NemigaMirageled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs BebopMirage20-22vs SIXSEVENDust216-14vs AllianceNuke17-19vs Lazer CatsInferno16-13vs AaBOverpass16-13