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Predictions / Nemesis vs WW · match preview
Nemesis vs WW: CS2 match prediction · WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9
Nemesis
World #47 · 81-44
VS
2026-10-22 11:30 UTC
WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · Best of 3
WW
World #137 · 51-42
WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · Best of 3
79%21%
65%
1.442.69Market · 10 books
35%The call · high confidence
Nemesis are favoured: our model gives them 79% against WW. Bookmakers lean Nemesis at 65%. Strength clearly favours Nemesis, firepower clearly favours Nemesis, head-to-head slightly favours Nemesis.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NemesispullWW
Team strength1683
156274/26 NEM
Track record81–44
51–4256/44 NEM
Recent formLWWWW
WLWLL55/45 NEM
Roster rating1.13
1.0892/8 NEM
Head-to-head5 maps
2 maps67/33 NEM
Bookmakers imply 65% for Nemesis (1.44 / 2.69); we land 14 points higher at 79%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (303 maps of Nemesis, 232 of WW). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Nemesis leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Nemesis to beat WW, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNemesis · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
WW · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Nemesis
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents1mo ago
Nemesis2 : 0
WW!7mo ago Nemesis2 : 0 WW!8mo ago Nemesis1 : 2 WW!
Nemesis2 : 0 WW!⚠ Different lineup
WW
outct0m, deko
inRyujin, tried
Nemesis2 : 0 WW!⚠ Different lineup
WW
outct0m, deko
inRyujin, tried
Nemesis1 : 2 WW!⚠ Different lineup
WW
outct0m, deko
inRyujin, StRoGo
1win#145-00-2
Nemiga#246-106-5
Nemesis vs Nemiga
Sep 16LMirage6-13Ancient8-13Cache19-17Dust217-19Sep 5LMirage1-13Ancient7-13Apr 1WOverpass4-13Nuke13-7Dust213-9+3 earlier meetings
WW vs Nemiga
May 29WAnubis2-13Mirage13-10Dust216-14Apr 4WMirage13-2Anubis8-13Dust213-7Mar 12WDust213-11Anubis10-13Overpass13-10+1 earlier meeting
HOTU#383-51-2
SINNERS#454-60-2
Nemesis vs SINNERS
Oct 8LDust28-13Cache13-2Ancient2-13Sep 9LCache13-10Ancient9-13Mirage8-13Mar 7WAncient13-11Mirage19-16+1 earlier meeting
WW vs SINNERS
Feb 26LInferno7-13Dust27-13
K27#464-118-10
Nemesis vs K27
Oct 2LAncient13-9Mirage6-13Dust24-13Nuke13-9Cache9-13Mar 23LNuke21-25Dust214-16Mar 12LNuke4-13Dust213-9Mirage6-13+2 earlier meetings
WW vs K27
Oct 20LDust213-9Nuke3-13Mirage11-13Sep 9LDust213-10Cache6-13Mirage5-13May 25LMirage4-13Dust213-4Overpass2-13+4 earlier meetings
Nuclear TigeRES#508-112-0
Nemesis vs Nuclear TigeRES
Oct 19WAncient13-10Nuke2-13Dust213-3Oct 16WAncient13-16Nuke13-4Inferno13-1Oct 2WDust211-13Inferno13-9Nuke13-8+4 earlier meetings
WW vs Nuclear TigeRES
Mar 11WInferno13-10Dust213-5
FORZE Reload#804-02-0
WW vs FORZE Reload
Feb 16WDust213-4Overpass13-6
Johnny Speeds#810-22-1
Nemesis vs Johnny Speeds
Apr 2Lseries0-2WW vs Johnny Speeds
May 30WInferno16-13Dust24-13Anubis13-5Map lab
Nemesis69%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nemesis 2-1
If the veto goes
Nemesis 69%how the series ends31% WW
32%2-016%
37%2-115%
Nemesis71%40-16vsWW29%17-17
71%Win50%
60%CT56%
49%T44%
51%Pistol49%
89%Conv88%
Nemesis45%33-26vsWW55%46-30
56%Win61%
54%CT51%
50%T55%
51%Pistol51%
83%Conv78%
Nemesis71%8-3vsWW29%2-3
73%Win40%
56%CT60%
58%T33%
50%Pistol40%
73%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NemesisNukeWW
60%CT side56%
49%T side44%
51%Pistol49%
89%After win88%
35%After loss23%
NemesisDust2WW
54%CT side51%
50%T side55%
51%Pistol51%
83%After win78%
17%After loss19%
NemesisCacheWW
56%CT side60%
58%T side33%
50%Pistol40%
73%After win75%
64%After loss17%
Pistol rounds51% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol85% · 81% · Nemesis keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol29% · 20% · Nemesis fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nemesis vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
WW habitually bans Ancient, Nemesis's strongest maps (Ancient, Inferno, Nuke, Overpass, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 80/95), not an opponent read, so expect Nemesis to fight the veto for Ancient.
MapNEMWW
AnubisNEM ban0%0-142%8-11
AncientWW ban61%43-2822%2-7
NukeNEM pick71%40-1650%17-17
Dust2WW pick56%33-2661%46-30
MirageNEM ban55%24-2064%34-19
InfernoWW ban63%27-1645%9-11
Each team's usual first ban: Nemesis Anubis · WW Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nemesis
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i53/183 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 183 maps they won, 53 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs SINNERSCachefrom 11 downvs EYEBALLERSDust2from 10 downvs K27Ancientfrom 9 downvs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 9 downvs OGAncientfrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/114 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 114 maps they lost, 31 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukeled 11 · lost 2-13vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19vs NemigaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs 100 ThievesAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs TDKOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs SINNERSCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukeled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSInferno18-22vs BIG AcademyDust219-16vs GenOneDust216-13vs Inner CircleMirage19-16vs MUERTAInferno14-16
WW
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/127 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 127 maps they won, 40 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs beznegativaDust2from 10 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 8 downvs K27Miragefrom 8 downvs Phantom AcademyDust2from 8 downvs Young27Ancientfrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i35/105 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 105 maps they lost, 35 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs IllyriansDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs K27Nukeled 10 · lost 3-13vs ENCE AcademyAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs KOLESIENukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs HOTUDust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs beznegativaDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs IllyriansDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs ARCREDNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYDust216-14vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs ENCE AcademyAnubis13-16vs LeoNuke19-17