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Predictions / NEXORA vs K27 · match preview
NEXORA vs K27: CS2 match prediction · WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9
NEX
NEXORA
World #– · 4-3
VS
2026-10-22 17:30 UTC
WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · Best of 3
K27
World #46 · 74-43
WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · Best of 3
20%80%
11%
8.21.04Market · 8 books
89%The call · high confidence
K27 are favoured: our model gives them 80% against NEXORA. Bookmakers lean K27 at 89%. Strength clearly favours K27, record slightly favours K27, firepower clearly favours K27.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NEXORApullK27
Team strength1487
167183/17 K27
Track record4–3
74–4360/40 K27
Recent formWWLLW
WWLWW54/46 K27
Roster rating1.15
1.1395/5 K27
Bookmakers imply 11% for NEXORA (8.2 / 1.04); we land 9 points higher at 20%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 81% our own signal (17 maps of NEXORA, 287 of K27).
Bottom line: K27 to beat NEXORA, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNEXORA · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hurtfrisk★ | 1.3 | 88.6 | 73.1% | 56% | 1.44 |
| Pryan3ch | 0.94 | 75.7 | 68.4% | 62% | 1.1 |
| matusik | 1.27 | 71.4 | 71.6% | 38% | 1.09 |
| torox | 1.05 | 66.7 | 70.5% | 49% | 1.09 |
| VRONSKY | 0.89 | 72.5 | 68.3% | 65% | 1.02 |
K27 · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
K2767%to win the Bo3 · most likely K27 2-0
If the veto goes
NEXORA 33%how the series ends67% K27
11%2-042%
22%2-125%
NEXORA43%4-2vsK2757%37-16
67%Win70%
64%CT60%
42%T50%
42%Pistol61%
100%Conv81%
NEXORA27%0-4vsK2773%29-26
0%Win53%
33%CT58%
23%T43%
25%Pistol53%
50%Conv79%
NEXORA46%0-1vsK2754%16-12
0%Win57%
75%CT53%
8%T53%
50%Pistol52%
100%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NEXORAMirageK27
64%CT side60%
42%T side50%
42%Pistol61%
100%After win81%
0%After loss37%
NEXORANukeK27
33%CT side58%
23%T side43%
25%Pistol53%
50%After win79%
0%After loss23%
NEXORACacheK27
75%CT side53%
8%T side53%
50%Pistol52%
100%After win83%
0%After loss26%
Pistol rounds36% · 56% · K27 win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 81% · NEXORA keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 28% · K27 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NEXORA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEXK27
InfernoNEX bann/a0gn/a0g
NEXORA on Inferno
no recent maps
K27 on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisK27 ban100%1-064%16-9
MirageNEX pick67%4-270%37-16
NukeK27 pick0%0-453%29-26
AncientNEX ban0%0-257%27-20
Dust2K27 ban100%3-055%30-25
Cachedecider0%0-157%16-12
Each team's usual first ban: NEXORA Inferno · K27 Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NEXORA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/8 (75%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 8 maps they won, 6 (75%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 75% of their wins were comebacks, not 75% of all games.vs TrafficPillsMiragefrom 8 downvs ROUNDSMiragefrom 7 downvs TrafficPillsDust2from 7 downvs ROUNDSDust2from 4 downvs LFO 7Dust2from 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/9 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TrafficPillsMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini6.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi12% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT12% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
K27
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i58/163 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 163 maps they won, 58 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs WWNukefrom 10 downvs ARCREDDust2from 9 downvs WildcardDust2from 7 downvs BAKSCachefrom 7 downvs MetizportMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i46/122 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 122 maps they lost, 46 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CYBERSHOKEAncientled 10 · lost 7-13vs NemesisAncientled 9 · lost 9-13vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13vs WWMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireAncientled 8 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WWNukefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CYBERSHOKEAncientled 10 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 30Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 30 went to overtime.vs 9INEAncient16-12vs WATERMELONAncient22-20vs ARCREDDust216-13vs NemigaAnubis16-12vs MOUZ NXTAnubis31-29