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Predictions / Vitality vs Falcons · match preview
Vitality vs Falcons: CS2 match prediction · BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2
Vitality
World #2 · 51-12
VS
2026-11-11 05:30 UTC
BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2 · Best of 3 · ★★★
Falcons
World #6 · 42-19
BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2 · Best of 3 · ★★★
75%25%
65%
1.422.66Market · 14 books
35%The call · high confidence
Vitality are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Falcons. Bookmakers lean Vitality at 65%. Strength slightly favours Vitality, record slightly favours Vitality, form clearly favours Vitality, firepower clearly favours Vitality, head-to-head slightly favours Falcons.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
VitalitypullFalcons
Team strength1814
172069/31 VIT
Track record51–12
42–1966/34 VIT
Recent formWWWWW
LLWWL71/29 VIT
Roster rating1.19
1.1198/2 VIT
Head-to-head5 maps
7 maps57/43 FAL
Bookmakers imply 65% for Vitality (1.42 / 2.66); we land 10 points higher at 75%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (154 maps of Vitality, 153 of Falcons). Head-to-head they've met 4 times: Falcons leads 3–1.
Bottom line: Vitality to beat Falcons, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVitality · avg 1.19 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Falcons · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.21iStar gap: the best player rates 0.21 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents17d ago
Vitality2 : 1
Falcons◆ same lineup4mo ago Vitality1 : 2 Falcons◆ same lineup6mo ago Vitality1 : 2 Falcons!9mo ago Vitality1 : 2 Falcons!
Vitality2 : 1 Falcons◆ same lineup4mo ago Vitality1 : 2 Falcons◆ same lineup6mo ago Vitality1 : 2 Falcons!⚠ Different lineup
Falcons
outkyxsan
inkarrigan
Vitality1 : 2 Falcons!⚠ Different lineup
Falcons
outNucleonZ, kyxsan
inkarrigan, kyousuke
Spirit#14-24-10
Falcons vs Spirit
Oct 9LMirage8-13Anubis10-13Sep 5LNuke8-13Ancient11-13Jun 20WAnubis16-14Mirage8-13Dust216-12+3 earlier meetings
FURIA#311-211-3
Vitality vs FURIA
Sep 20WCache13-5Anubis13-8Sep 18WMirage13-8Dust213-5Sep 4WNuke6-13Cache13-11Dust213-4+2 earlier meetings
Falcons vs FURIA
Jun 21WMirage13-8Anubis13-8Inferno13-8May 15WMirage9-13Nuke22-20Dust219-17Apr 19WDust213-11Mirage13-11+2 earlier meetings
MOUZ#49-33-5
Vitality vs MOUZ
Oct 11WCache13-8Inferno13-7Dust216-12Sep 5LDust211-13Mirage7-13Jun 13WMirage13-9Dust27-13Inferno13-4+2 earlier meetings
Aurora#512-44-4
Legacy#72-15-6
Vitality vs Legacy
Aug 30WNuke16-14Mirage9-13Dust213-8Falcons vs Legacy
Aug 29WMirage13-6Ancient10-13Dust213-6Aug 21LMirage7-13Dust210-13May 24LNuke13-11Ancient9-13Mirage6-13Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
G2#86-34-1
Natus Vincere#1111-35-4
Vitality vs Natus Vincere
Oct 4WAnubis13-5Nuke5-13Mirage13-4May 16LDust213-11Anubis11-13Inferno3-13May 3WNuke16-12Anubis13-11Dust213-3+2 earlier meetings
PARIVISION#137-01-7
Map lab
Vitality67%to win the Bo3 · most likely Vitality 2-0
If the veto goes
Vitality 67%how the series ends33% Falcons
45%2-010%
22%2-122%
Vitality73%31-6vsFalcons27%28-16
84%Win64%
63%CT53%
62%T54%
55%Pistol49%
85%Conv88%
Vitality62%19-9vsFalcons38%19-15
68%Win56%
62%CT57%
46%T45%
54%Pistol62%
90%Conv81%
Vitality50%16-6vsFalcons50%11-4
73%Win73%
72%CT67%
39%T37%
59%Pistol53%
73%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
VitalityDust2Falcons
63%CT side53%
62%T side54%
55%Pistol49%
85%After win88%
36%After loss18%
VitalityMirageFalcons
62%CT side57%
46%T side45%
54%Pistol62%
90%After win81%
15%After loss12%
VitalityNukeFalcons
72%CT side67%
39%T side37%
59%Pistol53%
73%After win88%
44%After loss21%
Pistol rounds56% · 54% · level, no edge
After a won pistol84% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol31% · 16% · Vitality fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Vitality vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Falcons habitually bans Overpass, Vitality's strongest maps (Overpass, Dust2, Inferno, Mirage, Ancient, Nuke, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Overpass 40/61), not an opponent read, so expect Vitality to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapVITFAL
AncientVIT ban100%2-055%12-10
CacheFAL ban88%7-1n/a0g
Vitality on Cache
WMOUZ13–811d agoWAurora13–712d agoW
1win13–519d agoWAurora13–71mo agoWFURIA13–51mo agoWFURIA13–112mo agoL
Inner Circle13–162mo agoW
FaZe13–62mo agoFalcons on Cache
no recent maps
Dust2VIT pick84%31-664%28-16
MirageFAL pick68%19-956%19-15
AnubisVIT ban47%9-1071%12-5
InfernoFAL ban77%17-557%12-9
Nukedecider73%16-673%11-4
Each team's usual first ban: Vitality Ancient · Falcons Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Vitality
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/116 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 116 maps they won, 36 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 11 downvs AuroraAnubisfrom 9 downvs AuroraMiragefrom 9 downvs FalconsDust2from 9 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/38 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 38 maps they lost, 17 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs FalconsMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs B8Infernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs AuroraAnubisled 6 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSAnubis19-16vs AuroraAncient25-22vs The MongolZMirage16-13vs PARIVISIONInferno16-13vs The MongolZOverpass16-13
Falcons
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/94 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 94 maps they won, 36 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs 100 ThievesNukefrom 10 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 8 downvs The MongolZMiragefrom 7 downvs Lynn VisionDust2from 7 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/59 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 26 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs BetBoomNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs 100 ThievesAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13vs 9zNukeled 6 · lost 8-13vs FaZeDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 100 ThievesNukefrom 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityDust2led 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs LiquidNuke16-14vs MOUZInferno14-16vs MOUZDust217-19vs FURIAMirage14-16vs PARIVISIONDust214-16