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Predictions / Spirit vs FUT · match preview
Spirit vs FUT: CS2 match prediction · BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2
Spirit
World #1 · 48-14
VS
2026-11-11 08:00 UTC
BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2 · Best of 3 · ★★★
FUT
World #10 · 34-24
BLAST Rivals 2026 Season 2 · Best of 3 · ★★★
74%26%
69%
1.373Market · 23 books
31%The call · high confidence
Spirit are favoured: our model gives them 74% against FUT. Bookmakers lean Spirit at 69%. Strength clearly favours Spirit, record slightly favours Spirit, firepower slightly favours Spirit, head-to-head slightly favours Spirit.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
SpiritpullFUT
Team strength1758
164972/28 SPI
Track record48–14
34–2464/36 SPI
Recent formLLWWL
LWWLL56/44 FUT
Roster rating1.17
1.1160/40 SPI
Head-to-head3 maps
1 maps67/33 SPI
Bookmakers imply 69% for Spirit (1.37 / 3); we land 5 points higher at 74%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (148 maps of Spirit, 145 of FUT). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Spirit leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Spirit to beat FUT, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSpirit · avg 1.17 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FUT · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Vitality#22-42-6
FURIA#35-36-5
MOUZ#411-88-5
Spirit vs MOUZ
Oct 10LDust27-13Mirage13-5Nuke11-13Oct 5LDust25-13Mirage11-13Sep 6WDust213-8Mirage11-13Ancient13-3Nuke13-6+4 earlier meetings
FUT vs MOUZ
Aug 21WDust216-13Ancient13-5Aug 14WAncient13-6Nuke12-16Mirage13-11Jun 14WAncient13-11Nuke10-13Mirage13-7+2 earlier meetings
Aurora#52-32-1
FUT vs Aurora
Feb 14WMirage13-6Anubis13-16Overpass13-6
Legacy#72-02-2
Spirit vs Legacy
Aug 22WDust213-7Ancient13-9
G2#812-26-6
Spirit vs G2
Aug 28WDust213-6Cache13-9Jun 19WOverpass9-13Dust216-14Mirage25-22May 15WDust213-6Ancient13-11+3 earlier meetings
Natus Vincere#114-01-2
FUT vs Natus Vincere
Mar 14LMirage5-13Ancient13-11Dust27-13
PARIVISION#133-53-2
Map lab
Spirit67%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit 2-1
If the veto goes
Spirit 67%how the series ends33% FUT
27%2-019%
40%2-114%
Spirit69%18-4vsFUT31%21-12
82%Win64%
61%CT50%
52%T58%
50%Pistol52%
86%Conv94%
Spirit39%21-12vsFUT61%25-9
64%Win74%
58%CT66%
50%T46%
56%Pistol50%
78%Conv79%
Spirit74%12-5vsFUT26%6-8
71%Win43%
52%CT47%
55%T61%
44%Pistol57%
100%Conv69%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
SpiritAncientFUT
61%CT side50%
52%T side58%
50%Pistol52%
86%After win94%
18%After loss25%
SpiritMirageFUT
58%CT side66%
50%T side46%
56%Pistol50%
78%After win79%
14%After loss26%
SpiritAnubisFUT
52%CT side47%
55%T side61%
44%Pistol57%
100%After win69%
21%After loss17%
Pistol rounds51% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol85% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol17% · 24% · FUT fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Spirit vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSPIFUT
InfernoSPI bann/a0gn/a0g
Spirit on Inferno
no recent maps
FUT on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2FUT ban74%31-1143%12-16
AncientSPI pick82%18-464%21-12
MirageFUT pick64%21-1274%25-9
CacheSPI ban56%5-4100%1-0
NukeFUT ban63%10-638%6-10
Anubisdecider71%12-543%6-8
Each team's usual first ban: Spirit Inferno · FUT Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Spirit
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/102 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 102 maps they won, 33 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zMiragefrom 7 downvs M80Dust2from 7 downvs FURIAMiragefrom 6 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/46 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 12 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs MOUZMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs 9zOverpassled 6 · lost 12-16vs VitalityNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs FUTCacheled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs AstralisDust216-13vs Natus VincereMirage16-14vs G2Dust216-13vs FURIAMirage13-16vs VitalityMirage13-16
FUT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/80 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 80 maps they won, 30 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs NRGAncientfrom 7 downvs MOUZDust2from 6 downvs SpiritCachefrom 6 downvs LegacyAncientfrom 5 downvs G2Miragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/65 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 65 maps they lost, 29 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZOverpassled 9 · lost 14-16vs EYEBALLERSAnubisled 8 · lost 10-13vs 3DMAXAnubisled 7 · lost 13-16vs AuroraAnubisled 6 · lost 13-16vs AstralisNukeled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NRGAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZOverpassled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs BIG AcademyOverpass14-16vs 3DMAXAncient16-13vs 3DMAXAnubis13-16vs AuroraAnubis13-16vs FURIAOverpass18-22