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Predictions / Legacy vs The MongolZ · match preview
Legacy vs The MongolZ: CS2 match prediction · IEM Beijing 2026
Legacy
World #7 · 44-28
VS
2026-11-02 07:00 UTC
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
The MongolZ
World #20 · 29-25
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
66%34%
68%
1.42.98Market · 15 books
32%The call
Legacy are favoured: our model gives them 66% against The MongolZ. Bookmakers lean Legacy at 68%. Strength slightly favours Legacy, record slightly favours Legacy, form clearly favours The MongolZ, firepower slightly favours The MongolZ, head-to-head slightly favours Legacy.
Likely mapsMirage · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LegacypullThe MongolZ
Team strength1697
162865/35 LEG
Track record44–28
29–2558/42 LEG
Recent formLLWLL
WWLWL72/28 THE
Roster rating1.12
1.0567/33 THE
Head-to-head2 maps
1 maps60/40 LEG
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 68% for Legacy (1.4 / 2.98) and we land at 66%, the same read. This read is 96% our own signal (172 maps of Legacy, 125 of The MongolZ). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Legacy leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Legacy to beat The MongolZ, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLegacy · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
The MongolZ · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#10-22-2
Legacy vs Spirit
Aug 22LDust27-13Ancient9-13
Vitality#21-21-6
Legacy vs Vitality
Aug 30LNuke14-16Mirage13-9Dust28-13The MongolZ vs Vitality
Mar 21LMirage4-13Overpass13-16Feb 21LMirage13-16Dust23-13Feb 15LMirage13-10Dust24-13Nuke4-13
FURIA#35-33-3
MOUZ#41-42-4
Aurora#52-42-4
Falcons#66-51-4
Legacy vs Falcons
Aug 29LMirage6-13Ancient13-10Dust26-13Aug 21WMirage13-7Dust213-10May 24WNuke11-13Ancient13-9Mirage13-6Dust213-6+1 earlier meeting
G2#85-22-2
FUT#102-20-2
The MongolZ vs FUT
Apr 10LNuke10-13Mirage14-16Map lab
Legacy67%to win the Bo3 · most likely Legacy 2-0
If the veto goes
Legacy 67%how the series ends33% The MongolZ
45%2-010%
23%2-123%
Legacy74%24-8vsThe MongolZ26%17-17
75%Win50%
62%CT60%
50%T41%
56%Pistol56%
83%Conv84%
Legacy61%19-10vsThe MongolZ39%12-10
66%Win55%
53%CT54%
50%T50%
50%Pistol55%
79%Conv75%
Legacy50%2-2vsThe MongolZ50%1-1
50%Win50%
46%CT57%
48%T43%
50%Pistol25%
75%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LegacyMirageThe MongolZ
62%CT side60%
50%T side41%
56%Pistol56%
83%After win84%
21%After loss30%
LegacyInfernoThe MongolZ
53%CT side54%
50%T side50%
50%Pistol55%
79%After win75%
21%After loss30%
LegacyCacheThe MongolZ
46%CT side57%
48%T side43%
50%Pistol25%
75%After win100%
50%After loss0%
Pistol rounds53% · 54% · level, no edge
After a won pistol81% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol23% · 28% · The MongolZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Legacy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLEGTHE
AnubisLEG ban50%1-1n/a0g
The MongolZ on Anubis
no recent maps
Dust2THE ban60%25-1760%12-8
MirageLEG pick75%24-850%17-17
InfernoTHE pick66%19-1055%12-10
AncientLEG ban50%16-1652%11-10
NukeTHE ban54%13-1155%11-9
Cachedecider50%2-250%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: Legacy Anubis · The MongolZ Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Legacy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/104 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 104 maps they won, 38 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs MIBRMiragefrom 7 downvs ShindeNNukefrom 7 downvs AuroraOverpassfrom 6 downvs The MongolZInfernofrom 6 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/68 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 21 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BC.GameOverpassled 9 · lost 13-16vs VitalityNukeled 8 · lost 14-16vs 1winDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs FUTAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MIBRMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BC.GameOverpassled 9 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs GameHuntersNuke16-13vs MIBRAncient20-22vs BC.GameOverpass13-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-13vs G2Inferno16-14
The MongolZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/66 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 66 maps they won, 18 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs magicMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONMiragefrom 7 downvs PRIVATEMiragefrom 7 downvs PARIVISIONAncientfrom 6 downvs magicInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/59 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 25 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16vs FURIADust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs FalconsMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs AstralisAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs LiquidMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs magicMiragefrom 7 down · won 25-23
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FaZeNukeled 9 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs FURIAInferno12-16vs B8Nuke19-17vs VitalityMirage13-16vs paiNNuke19-17vs VitalityOverpass13-16