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Predictions / HEROIC vs B8 · match preview
HEROIC vs B8: CS2 match prediction · IEM Beijing 2026
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
60%40%
56%
1.662.15Market · 23 books
44%The call
HEROIC are favoured: our model gives them 60% against B8. Bookmakers lean HEROIC at 56%. Strength slightly favours HEROIC, record slightly favours HEROIC, form slightly favours HEROIC, head-to-head clearly favours B8.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
HEROICpullB8
Team strength1720
164067/33 HER
Track record51–34
43–3658/42 HER
Recent formLWLWW
LLLWW64/36 HER
Roster rating1.15
1.0953/47 HER
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 B8
Bookmakers imply 56% for HEROIC (1.66 / 2.15); we land 4 points higher at 60%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (199 maps of HEROIC, 164 of B8). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: B8 leads 1–0.
Bottom line: HEROIC to beat B8, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsHEROIC · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nilo★ | 1.2 | 79 | 75.3% | 59% | 1.22 |
| Brollan | 1.11 | 77.3 | 75% | 58% | 1.21 |
| MartinezSa | 1.26 | 69.6 | 76.2% | 38% | 1.19 |
| susp | 0.95 | 70.4 | 73.8% | 57% | 1.08 |
| Chr1zN | 0.93 | 71.2 | 72.1% | 56% | 1.07 |
B8 · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
HEROIC
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FURIA#32-62-5
MOUZ#41-20-2
HEROIC vs MOUZ
Mar 6LDust213-9Mirage8-13Inferno3-13B8 vs MOUZ
May 22LOverpass8-13Ancient20-22
Aurora#52-00-4
HEROIC vs Aurora
May 9WNuke13-8Dust213-11
FUT#101-23-7
HEROIC vs FUT
Mar 7LNuke3-13Ancient13-5Mirage3-13B8 vs FUT
Jun 13LDust213-10Mirage9-13Ancient11-13Jun 6LAncient11-13May 13WAncient13-7Overpass13-11+2 earlier meetings
PARIVISION#133-21-0
B8 vs PARIVISION
Aug 12WCache13-11
1win#143-32-2
Astralis#162-21-2
B8 vs Astralis
Apr 5LMirage12-16Nuke13-8Ancient8-13
Ninjas in Pyjamas#196-72-0
HEROIC vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Oct 17LCache7-13Inferno13-7Mirage11-13Jul 25LMirage16-12Nuke8-13Ancient9-13Jul 17WInferno13-11Nuke9-13Mirage13-9+2 earlier meetings
Map lab
HEROIC57%to win the Bo3 · most likely HEROIC 2-0
If the veto goes
HEROIC 57%how the series ends43% B8
36%2-016%
22%2-126%
HEROIC62%23-14vsB838%7-7
62%Win50%
64%CT62%
44%T40%
61%Pistol61%
82%Conv82%
HEROIC58%17-14vsB842%21-24
55%Win47%
59%CT57%
44%T47%
58%Pistol59%
78%Conv87%
HEROIC45%24-18vsB855%18-11
57%Win62%
58%CT56%
49%T48%
48%Pistol45%
85%Conv58%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
HEROICNukeB8
64%CT side62%
44%T side40%
61%Pistol61%
82%After win82%
18%After loss18%
HEROICMirageB8
59%CT side57%
44%T side47%
58%Pistol59%
78%After win87%
27%After loss5%
HEROICDust2B8
58%CT side56%
49%T side48%
48%Pistol45%
85%After win58%
18%After loss25%
Pistol rounds55% · 55% · level, no edge
After a won pistol82% · 78% · HEROIC keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol20% · 15% · HEROIC fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, HEROIC vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapHERB8
AnubisHER bann/a0g0%0-2
HEROIC on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoB8 ban60%21-1438%8-13
NukeHER pick62%23-1450%7-7
MirageB8 pick55%17-1447%21-24
AncientHER ban64%18-1061%23-15
CacheB8 ban63%10-660%3-2
Dust2decider57%24-1862%18-11
Each team's usual first ban: HEROIC Anubis · B8 Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
HEROIC
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i41/117 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 117 maps they won, 41 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs BIGDust2from 9 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasMiragefrom 8 downvs Nuclear TigeRESDust2from 6 downvs 1winAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/81 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 81 maps they lost, 25 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16vs Ninjas in PyjamasCacheled 7 · lost 7-13vs AcendInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs MonteDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs Lynn VisionDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BIGDust2from 9 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomNukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs paiNMirage16-14vs CYBERSHOKEDust216-13vs AstralisDust213-16vs MonteDust213-16vs MonteNuke20-22
B8
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/84 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 84 maps they won, 32 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs BESTIAMiragefrom 7 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 7 downvs PhantomMiragefrom 6 downvs BIGDust2from 6 downvs VitalityInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/80 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 80 maps they lost, 31 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 3DMAXNukeled 9 · lost 11-13vs NemigaAncientled 6 · lost 17-19vs AuroraMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs PhantomNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs Natus VincereInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BESTIAMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 3DMAXNukeled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs paiNDust212-16vs The MongolZNuke17-19vs AuroraMirage13-16vs Natus VincereAncient19-17vs Natus VincereMirage14-16