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Predictions / Natus Vincere vs Falcons · match preview
Natus Vincere vs Falcons: CS2 match prediction · IEM Beijing 2026
Natus Vincere
World #11 · 32-24
VS
2026-11-02 07:00 UTC
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
Falcons
World #6 · 42-19
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
42%58%
38%
2.461.53Market · 23 books
62%The call
Falcons are favoured: our model gives them 58% against Natus Vincere. Bookmakers lean Falcons at 62%. Strength slightly favours Falcons.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Natus VincerepullFalcons
Team strength1645
172066/34 FAL
Track record32–24
42–1957/43 FAL
Recent formLLWLW
LLWWL54/46 FAL
Roster rating1.1
1.1153/47 NAT
Head-to-head4 maps
5 maps54/46 FAL
Bookmakers imply 38% for Natus Vincere (2.46 / 1.53); we land 4 points higher at 42%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (144 maps of Natus Vincere, 153 of Falcons). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Falcons leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Falcons to beat Natus Vincere, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNatus Vincere · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| w0nderful★ | 1.26 | 72.1 | 75% | 38% | 1.17 |
| b1t | 1.1 | 76 | 75% | 61% | 1.16 |
| makazze | 1.02 | 80.1 | 73.1% | 54% | 1.16 |
| iM | 1.02 | 76.8 | 73.3% | 46% | 1.11 |
| Aleksib | 0.79 | 59.5 | 72.3% | 48% | 0.92 |
Falcons · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.21iStar gap: the best player rates 0.21 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents16d ago Natus Vincere1 : 2
Falcons◆ same lineup4mo ago Natus Vincere1 : 2 Falcons◆ same lineup7mo ago Natus Vincere2 : 1 Falcons!
Natus Vincere1 : 2 Falcons◆ same lineup4mo ago Natus Vincere1 : 2 Falcons◆ same lineup7mo ago Natus Vincere2 : 1 Falcons!⚠ Different lineup
Falcons
outkyxsan
inkarrigan
Spirit#10-44-10
Falcons vs Spirit
Oct 9LMirage8-13Anubis10-13Sep 5LNuke8-13Ancient11-13Jun 20WAnubis16-14Mirage8-13Dust216-12+3 earlier meetings
Vitality#23-117-5
Natus Vincere vs Vitality
Oct 4LAnubis5-13Nuke13-5Mirage4-13May 16WDust211-13Anubis13-11Inferno13-3May 3LNuke12-16Anubis11-13Dust23-13+2 earlier meetings
Falcons vs Vitality
Oct 5LAnubis13-9Dust24-13Mirage8-13Jun 19WAnubis13-11Inferno11-13Dust213-11Apr 15WMirage13-10Dust26-13Nuke16-14+1 earlier meeting
FURIA#32-411-3
Falcons vs FURIA
Jun 21WMirage13-8Anubis13-8Inferno13-8May 15WMirage9-13Nuke22-20Dust219-17Apr 19WDust213-11Mirage13-11+2 earlier meetings
MOUZ#42-63-5
Aurora#59-54-4
Natus Vincere vs Aurora
Sep 17LNuke8-13Mirage7-13Apr 15WInferno13-4Mirage11-13Dust213-4Mar 23WAnubis13-8Nuke13-10+2 earlier meetings
Legacy#73-65-6
Natus Vincere vs Legacy
Aug 20LInferno9-13Ancient2-13Jun 12WInferno13-4Ancient13-10May 14LInferno11-13Ancient13-8Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
Falcons vs Legacy
Aug 29WMirage13-6Ancient10-13Dust213-6Aug 21LMirage7-13Dust210-13May 24LNuke13-11Ancient9-13Mirage6-13Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
G2#86-64-1
Natus Vincere vs G2
Oct 3WCache13-7Inferno13-4Aug 30LAncient6-13Inferno10-13Jun 15LDust213-11Inferno14-16Mirage10-13+2 earlier meetings
PARIVISION#135-41-7
Map lab
Falcons54%to win the Bo3 · most likely Falcons 2-1
If the veto goes
Natus Vincere 46%how the series ends54% Falcons
24%2-024%
22%2-131%
Natus Vincere61%14-7vsFalcons39%12-10
67%Win55%
59%CT56%
47%T50%
43%Pistol52%
82%Conv87%
Natus Vincere39%14-13vsFalcons61%28-16
52%Win64%
48%CT53%
47%T54%
35%Pistol49%
79%Conv88%
Natus Vincere42%17-19vsFalcons58%19-15
47%Win56%
56%CT57%
45%T45%
49%Pistol62%
86%Conv81%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Natus VincereAncientFalcons
59%CT side56%
47%T side50%
43%Pistol52%
82%After win87%
21%After loss19%
Natus VincereDust2Falcons
48%CT side53%
47%T side54%
35%Pistol49%
79%After win88%
17%After loss18%
Natus VincereMirageFalcons
56%CT side57%
45%T side45%
49%Pistol62%
86%After win81%
16%After loss12%
Pistol rounds43% · 54% · Falcons win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 16% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Natus Vincere vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNATFAL
NukeNAT ban64%9-573%11-4
CacheFAL ban75%3-1n/a0g
Falcons on Cache
no recent maps
AncientNAT pick67%14-755%12-10
Dust2FAL pick52%14-1364%28-16
AnubisNAT ban53%8-771%12-5
InfernoFAL ban52%14-1357%12-9
Miragedecider47%17-1956%19-15
Each team's usual first ban: Natus Vincere Overpass · Falcons Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Natus Vincere
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/79 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 79 maps they won, 29 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 downvs paiNMiragefrom 8 downvs 9zNukefrom 8 downvs PARIVISIONInfernofrom 7 downvs Passion UAAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/65 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 65 maps they lost, 16 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16vs FURIANukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs MOUZInfernoled 7 · lost 10-13vs The MongolZMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FUTAncientled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis16-19vs SpiritMirage14-16vs AuroraInferno16-12vs B8Ancient17-19vs B8Mirage16-14
Falcons
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/94 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 94 maps they won, 36 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs 100 ThievesNukefrom 10 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 8 downvs The MongolZMiragefrom 7 downvs Lynn VisionDust2from 7 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/59 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 26 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs BetBoomNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs 100 ThievesAnubisled 7 · lost 11-13vs 9zNukeled 6 · lost 8-13vs FaZeDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 100 ThievesNukefrom 10 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityDust2led 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs LiquidNuke16-14vs MOUZInferno14-16vs MOUZDust217-19vs FURIAMirage14-16vs PARIVISIONDust214-16