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Predictions / B8 vs K27 · match preview
B8 vs K27: CS2 match prediction · RLG Tesla Cup 2026
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3
45%55%
58%
1.612.21Market · 8 books
42%The call
K27 are favoured: our model gives them 55% against B8. Bookmakers lean B8 at 58%. Form clearly favours K27, firepower clearly favours K27.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
B8pullK27
Team strength1640
167157/43 K27
Track record43–36
74–4356/44 K27
Recent formLLLWW
WWLWW74/26 K27
Roster rating1.09
1.1387/13 K27
Bookmakers imply 58% for B8 (1.61 / 2.21); we land 13 points lower at 45%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (164 maps of B8, 287 of K27).
Bottom line: K27 to beat B8, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsB8 · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
K27 · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
B8
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Aurora#50-41-2
K27 vs Aurora
Jul 22LMirage13-11Anubis8-13Nuke3-13
FUT#103-70-2
B8 vs FUT
Jun 13LDust213-10Mirage9-13Ancient11-13Jun 6LAncient11-13May 13WAncient13-7Overpass13-11+2 earlier meetings
K27 vs FUT
Jan 21LNuke7-13Mirage2-13
MIBR#124-32-2
1win#142-22-4
Ninjas in Pyjamas#192-02-3
GamerLegion#233-12-3
Nemiga#240-37-3
B8 vs Nemiga
Sep 12LCache10-13Mirage6-13Ancient17-19K27 vs Nemiga
Sep 10WAnubis13-10Mirage9-13Nuke13-10Sep 3Wseries2-0Mar 26LOverpass7-13Nuke13-4Anubis7-13+1 earlier meeting
HEROIC#252-01-5
B8 vs HEROIC
Feb 15WNuke13-9Ancient13-4Map lab
K2759%to win the Bo3 · most likely K27 2-0
If the veto goes
B8 41%how the series ends59% K27
13%2-038%
28%2-121%
B828%21-24vsK2772%37-16
47%Win70%
57%CT60%
47%T50%
59%Pistol61%
87%Conv81%
B847%7-7vsK2753%29-26
50%Win53%
62%CT58%
40%T43%
61%Pistol53%
82%Conv79%
B857%18-11vsK2743%30-25
62%Win55%
56%CT54%
48%T52%
45%Pistol57%
58%Conv87%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
B8MirageK27
57%CT side60%
47%T side50%
59%Pistol61%
87%After win81%
5%After loss37%
B8NukeK27
62%CT side58%
40%T side43%
61%Pistol53%
82%After win79%
18%After loss23%
B8Dust2K27
56%CT side54%
48%T side52%
45%Pistol57%
58%After win87%
25%After loss17%
Pistol rounds55% · 57% · level, no edge
After a won pistol78% · 83% · K27 keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 25% · K27 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, B8 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapB8K27
AnubisB8 ban0%0-264%16-9
InfernoK27 ban38%8-13n/a0g
MirageB8 pick47%21-2470%37-16
NukeK27 pick50%7-753%29-26
CacheB8 ban60%3-257%16-12
AncientK27 ban61%23-1557%27-20
Each team's usual first ban: B8 Anubis · K27 Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
B8
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/84 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 84 maps they won, 32 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs BESTIAMiragefrom 7 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 7 downvs PhantomMiragefrom 6 downvs BIGDust2from 6 downvs VitalityInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/80 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 80 maps they lost, 31 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 3DMAXNukeled 9 · lost 11-13vs NemigaAncientled 6 · lost 17-19vs AuroraMirageled 5 · lost 13-16vs PhantomNukeled 5 · lost 14-16vs Natus VincereInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs BESTIAMiragefrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 3DMAXNukeled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 21Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 21 went to overtime.vs paiNDust212-16vs The MongolZNuke17-19vs AuroraMirage13-16vs Natus VincereAncient19-17vs Natus VincereMirage14-16
K27
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i58/163 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 163 maps they won, 58 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs WWNukefrom 10 downvs ARCREDDust2from 9 downvs WildcardDust2from 7 downvs BAKSCachefrom 7 downvs MetizportMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i46/122 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 122 maps they lost, 46 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs CYBERSHOKEAncientled 10 · lost 7-13vs NemesisAncientled 9 · lost 9-13vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13vs WWMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireAncientled 8 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WWNukefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs CYBERSHOKEAncientled 10 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 30Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 30 went to overtime.vs 9INEAncient16-12vs WATERMELONAncient22-20vs ARCREDDust216-13vs NemigaAnubis16-12vs MOUZ NXTAnubis31-29