Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Luminosity vs HOTU · match preview
Luminosity vs HOTU: CS2 match prediction · RLG Tesla Cup 2026
Luminosity
World #28 · 10-13
VS
2026-10-27 17:00 UTC
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3
HOTU
World #38 · 71-38
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3
37%63%
54%
1.712.02Market · 8 books
46%The call
HOTU are favoured: our model gives them 63% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean Luminosity at 54%. Strength clearly favours HOTU, record slightly favours HOTU, form slightly favours HOTU, firepower slightly favours HOTU.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LuminositypullHOTU
Team strength1555
166873/27 HOT
Track record10–13
71–3864/36 HOT
Recent formLLLLW
LLWLW67/33 HOT
Roster rating1.07
1.1568/32 HOT
Bookmakers imply 54% for Luminosity (1.71 / 2.02); we land 17 points lower at 37%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 92% our own signal (48 maps of Luminosity, 264 of HOTU).
Bottom line: HOTU to beat Luminosity, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLuminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
HOTU · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Astralis#161-24-4
Luminosity vs Astralis
Oct 4LMirage13-11Cache7-13Nuke11-13
B8#214-10-2
HOTU vs B8
Sep 3LCache5-13Mirage10-13
GamerLegion#230-22-0
HOTU vs GamerLegion
Jul 22WDust213-11Ancient13-8
Nemiga#240-23-2
Luminosity vs Nemiga
Oct 3LCache11-13Dust213-16
BIG#372-11-2
Luminosity vs BIG
Oct 2WInferno9-13Cache13-5Mirage16-13HOTU vs BIG
Mar 26LAncient8-13Dust213-9Overpass5-13
Nemesis#470-15-3
Luminosity vs Nemesis
Jul 1LInferno10-13
BBL#482-22-1
HOTU vs BBL
Sep 13WAnubis16-13Nuke7-13Cache13-7
3DMAX2-31-2
Luminosity vs 3DMAX
Sep 23LCache11-13Dust216-19Ancient19-15Inferno13-8Nuke13-16HOTU vs 3DMAX
Sep 3LDust27-13Anubis19-17Ancient6-13Map lab
HOTU68%to win the Bo3 · most likely HOTU 2-0
If the veto goes
Luminosity 32%how the series ends68% HOTU
10%2-034%
22%2-134%
Luminosity59%6-2vsHOTU41%22-13
75%Win63%
55%CT55%
49%T54%
44%Pistol61%
86%Conv85%
Luminosity17%2-7vsHOTU83%45-25
22%Win64%
56%CT52%
50%T55%
72%Pistol52%
85%Conv86%
Luminosity40%4-5vsHOTU60%18-14
44%Win56%
59%CT57%
41%T48%
33%Pistol52%
50%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LuminosityMirageHOTU
55%CT side55%
49%T side54%
44%Pistol61%
86%After win85%
33%After loss15%
LuminosityDust2HOTU
56%CT side52%
50%T side55%
72%Pistol52%
85%After win86%
20%After loss19%
LuminosityNukeHOTU
59%CT side57%
41%T side48%
33%Pistol52%
50%After win79%
8%After loss13%
Pistol rounds50% · 54% · HOTU win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 84% · HOTU keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 17% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Luminosity vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLUMHOT
CacheLUM ban20%1-463%17-10
InfernoHOT ban40%4-60%0-1
MirageLUM pick75%6-263%22-13
Dust2HOT pick22%2-764%45-25
AnubisLUM bann/a0g72%21-8
Luminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientHOT ban71%5-250%22-22
Nukedecider44%4-556%18-14
Each team's usual first ban: Luminosity Anubis · HOTU Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Luminosity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/22 (41%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 22 maps they won, 9 (41%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 41% of their wins were comebacks, not 41% of all games.vs MetizportMiragefrom 5 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs B8Infernofrom 4 downvs BBLNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/26 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 26 maps they lost, 8 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs 3DMAXDust2led 4 · lost 16-19vs BIGInfernoled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MetizportMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi46% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT46% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19vs 3DMAXDust216-19vs 3DMAXAncient19-15vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs BIGMirage16-13
HOTU
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i51/157 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 157 maps they won, 51 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs Gentle MatesAnubisfrom 8 downvs NemigaCachefrom 8 downvs Black PhoenixDust2from 8 downvs WWDust2from 7 downvs EntropyDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i42/104 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 104 maps they lost, 42 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NemigaCacheled 9 · lost 4-13vs fnaticAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs WWNukeled 7 · lost 8-13vs NOVAQOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs ex-RUBYDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Gentle MatesAnubisfrom 8 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NemigaCacheled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs NOVAQOverpass13-16vs BetBoomAncient23-25vs SangalOverpass16-14vs Gentle MatesAnubis16-12vs ALTAYDust216-14