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Luminosity vs HOTU: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · RLG Tesla Cup 2026

Luminosity
World #28 · 10-13
VS
2026-10-27 17:00 UTC
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3
HOTU
World #38 · 71-38
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3
37%
Win probability
63%
54%
1.712.02Market · 8 booksBookmakerLUMHOTGranaWin1.681.98ivibet1.681.981xBit1.712.021xbet1.712.02ColdBet1.712.02Spinbet1.712.02Vivatbet1.712.02betlabel1.712.02
46%
The call

HOTU are favoured: our model gives them 63% against Luminosity. Bookmakers lean Luminosity at 54%. Strength clearly favours HOTU, record slightly favours HOTU, form slightly favours HOTU, firepower slightly favours HOTU.

Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Nuke

Firepower

roster ratings

Luminosity · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
afro★1.2172.273%33%1.16
Rainwaker172.571.4%48%1.1
yxngstxr1.0470.471.8%55%1.08
lux0.8974.170.7%55%1.02
AZUWU0.8970.369.9%60%1.01

HOTU · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
mizu★1.1279.273.2%50%1.22
n0rb3r71.0479.572.7%54%1.19
dwushka1.0576.573.7%62%1.15
frontales1.27074.5%34%1.14
kade00.9369.371.6%56%1.06

Recent form

Luminosity

BBL2d ago0-2NexusUpsetUpset2d ago1-2AstralisComebackCB618d ago1-2NemigaOvertimeOT19d ago0-2BIGPistolsPist6/6OvertimeOT20d ago2-1B8PistolsPist3/4ComebackCB621d ago2-03DMAXOvertimeOT29d ago2-3B8UpsetUpset1mo ago2-0BBL1mo ago2-0Ninjas in Pyjamas1mo ago13-11M80PistolsPist2/21mo ago13-4B8PistolsPist2/21mo ago11-13MetizportPistolsPist0/21mo ago13-9GamerLegion1mo ago7-13M801mo ago0-2

HOTU

fnatic8d ago0-2AstralisStompStomp2-13OvertimeOT8d ago1-2fnatic8d ago2-0fnatic12d ago1-2Acend13d ago2-0STATEOvertimeOT15d ago2-1Nemesis21d ago1-2Black PhoenixStompStomp2-1323d ago2-1RefresherPistolsPist4/4StompStomp13-023d ago2-0Black PhoenixUpsetUpset23d ago0-2Virtus.proOvertimeOT1mo ago0-3BBLPistolsPist5/6OvertimeOT1mo ago2-1100 ThievesPistolsPist3/41mo ago2-0NemesisStompStomp2-131mo ago2-1Nemiga1mo ago1-2

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
Astralis#161-24-4
Luminosity vs Astralis
Oct 4LMirage13-11Cache7-13Nuke11-13
HOTU vs Astralis
Oct 14LDust213-6Ancient14-16Nuke2-13Jul 25LCache1-13Nuke13-7Ancient10-13Jul 22WCache16-14Ancient16-13
B8#214-10-2
Luminosity vs B8
Oct 1WInferno13-11Mirage13-10Sep 22WInferno13-10Ancient13-9Sep 17LDust211-13
HOTU vs B8
Sep 3LCache5-13Mirage10-13
GamerLegion#230-22-0
Luminosity vs GamerLegion
Sep 17LNuke7-13Aug 12LNuke3-13
HOTU vs GamerLegion
Jul 22WDust213-11Ancient13-8
Nemiga#240-23-2
Luminosity vs Nemiga
Oct 3LCache11-13Dust213-16
HOTU vs Nemiga
Sep 9LAncient13-3Cache4-13Inferno7-13Sep 2WAncient16-14Cache13-9
BIG#372-11-2
Luminosity vs BIG
Oct 2WInferno9-13Cache13-5Mirage16-13
HOTU vs BIG
Mar 26LAncient8-13Dust213-9Overpass5-13
Nemesis#470-15-3
Luminosity vs Nemesis
Jul 1LInferno10-13
HOTU vs Nemesis
Oct 1LAncient8-13Dust213-9Cache11-13Sep 10WCache2-13Nuke13-8Ancient13-3Sep 3Wseries2-0
BBL#482-22-1
Luminosity vs BBL
Oct 20LNuke6-13Mirage3-13Sep 19WNuke13-9Mirage13-5
HOTU vs BBL
Sep 13WAnubis16-13Nuke7-13Cache13-7
3DMAX2-31-2
Luminosity vs 3DMAX
Sep 23LCache11-13Dust216-19Ancient19-15Inferno13-8Nuke13-16
HOTU vs 3DMAX
Sep 3LDust27-13Anubis19-17Ancient6-13

Map lab

HOTU68%to win the Bo3 · most likely HOTU 2-0
If the veto goes
Luminosity 32%how the series ends68% HOTU
10%2-034%
22%2-134%
Map 1MirageLuminosity pick
Luminosity59%6-2vsHOTU41%22-13
75%Win63%
55%CT55%
49%T54%
44%Pistol61%
86%Conv85%
Map 2Dust2HOTU pick
Luminosity17%2-7vsHOTU83%45-25
22%Win64%
56%CT52%
50%T55%
72%Pistol52%
85%Conv86%
Map 3Nukedecider
Luminosity40%4-5vsHOTU60%18-14
44%Win56%
59%CT57%
41%T48%
33%Pistol52%
50%Conv79%

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

LuminosityMirageHOTU
55%CT side55%
49%T side54%
44%Pistol61%
86%After win85%
33%After loss15%
LuminosityDust2HOTU
56%CT side52%
50%T side55%
72%Pistol52%
85%After win86%
20%After loss19%
LuminosityNukeHOTU
59%CT side57%
41%T side48%
33%Pistol52%
50%After win79%
8%After loss13%
Pistol rounds50% · 54% · HOTU win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol77% · 84% · HOTU keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol19% · 17% · both bounce back about the same

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Luminosity vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLUMHOT
CacheLUM ban20%1-463%17-10
Luminosity on Cache
LAstralis7–1318d agoLNemiga11–1319d agoWBIG13–520d agoL3DMAX11–1329d agoLM8010–131mo ago
HOTU on Cache
Lfnatic10–1312d agoWAcend13–1013d agoWSTATE16–1215d agoLNemesis11–1321d agoWBlack Phoenix13–323d agoWBBL13–71mo agoLNemesis2–131mo agoLNemiga4–131mo ago
InfernoHOT ban40%4-60%0-1
Luminosity on Inferno
LNexus10–132d agoLBIG9–1320d agoWB813–1121d agoW3DMAX13–829d agoWB813–101mo agoWM8013–61mo agoLSAW11–131mo agoLNinjas in Pyjamas10–134mo ago
HOTU on Inferno
LNemiga7–131mo ago
MirageLUM pick75%6-263%22-13
Luminosity on Mirage
LBBL3–132d agoWAstralis13–1118d agoWBIG16–1320d agoWB813–1021d agoWBBL13–51mo agoWMetizport13–91mo agoWM8013–71mo agoLNinjas in Pyjamas7–134mo ago
HOTU on Mirage
WAcend13–1013d agoWRefresher13–023d agoW100 Thieves13–91mo agoWWildcard13–71mo agoWBetclic13–91mo agoWEternal Fire13–102mo agoLB810–132mo agoWJiJieHao13–72mo ago
Dust2HOT pick22%2-764%45-25
Luminosity on Dust2
LNexus9–132d agoLNemiga13–1619d agoL3DMAX16–1929d agoLB811–131mo agoLM8010–131mo agoLM8011–131mo agoWSAW13–21mo agoWLP13–21mo ago
HOTU on Dust2
Lfnatic11–138d agoWAstralis13–68d agoWfnatic13–108d agoWfnatic13–912d agoWNemesis13–921d agoWBlack Phoenix13–523d agoLBlack Phoenix10–1323d agoLVirtus.pro14–161mo ago
AnubisLUM bann/a0g72%21-8
Luminosity on Anubis
no recent maps
HOTU on Anubis
Lfnatic4–1312d agoLSTATE5–1315d agoLBlack Phoenix2–1323d agoWRefresher13–023d agoLBlack Phoenix9–1323d agoLVirtus.pro6–131mo agoWBBL16–131mo agoW100 Thieves13–81mo ago
AncientHOT ban71%5-250%22-22
Luminosity on Ancient
WNexus13–102d agoW3DMAX19–1529d agoWB813–91mo agoWNinjas in Pyjamas13–111mo agoWM8013–41mo agoLLP11–131mo agoLSpirit3–132mo ago
HOTU on Ancient
Lfnatic5–138d agoLAstralis14–168d agoWfnatic13–108d agoLNemesis8–1321d agoLVirtus.pro13–161mo agoWNemesis13–31mo agoWNemiga13–31mo agoWBetclic13–81mo ago
Nukedecider44%4-556%18-14
Luminosity on Nuke
LBBL6–132d agoLAstralis11–1318d agoL3DMAX13–1629d agoWBBL13–91mo agoLGamerLegion7–131mo agoWSAW13–51mo agoWLP13–71mo agoLGamerLegion3–132mo ago
HOTU on Nuke
LAstralis2–138d agoWSTATE13–315d agoLBBL7–131mo agoWNemesis13–81mo agoLFOKUS10–132mo agoWpaiN13–42mo agoLUPGRADE15–192mo agoWCYBERSHOKE Prospects13–82mo ago
Each team's usual first ban: Luminosity Anubis · HOTU Inferno.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

Luminosity

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/22 (41%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 22 maps they won, 9 (41%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 41% of their wins were comebacks, not 41% of all games.vs MetizportMiragefrom 5 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 5 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasNukefrom 4 downvs B8Infernofrom 4 downvs BBLNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/26 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 26 maps they lost, 8 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs SAWInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasInfernoled 4 · lost 10-13vs 3DMAXDust2led 4 · lost 16-19vs BIGInfernoled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MetizportMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SpiritAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini4.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi46% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT46% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs SpiritDust215-19vs 3DMAXDust216-19vs 3DMAXAncient19-15vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs BIGMirage16-13

HOTU

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i51/157 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 157 maps they won, 51 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs Gentle MatesAnubisfrom 8 downvs NemigaCachefrom 8 downvs Black PhoenixDust2from 8 downvs WWDust2from 7 downvs EntropyDust2from 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i42/104 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 104 maps they lost, 42 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NemigaCacheled 9 · lost 4-13vs fnaticAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs WWNukeled 7 · lost 8-13vs NOVAQOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs ex-RUBYDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Gentle MatesAnubisfrom 8 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NemigaCacheled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 33Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 33 went to overtime.vs NOVAQOverpass13-16vs BetBoomAncient23-25vs SangalOverpass16-14vs Gentle MatesAnubis16-12vs ALTAYDust216-14

Luminosity vs HOTU FAQ

Who is favored to win Luminosity vs HOTU?

HOTU are favored with a 63% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for Luminosity vs HOTU?

Bookmakers price Luminosity at 1.71 and HOTU at 2.02 (implied 54% vs 46%).

When do Luminosity and HOTU play?

Luminosity vs HOTU is scheduled for 2026-10-27 17:00 UTC at RLG Tesla Cup 2026.