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Predictions / Envy vs GamerLegion · match preview
Envy vs GamerLegion: CS2 match prediction · RLG Tesla Cup 2026
Envy
World #22 · 1-4
VS
2026-10-27 20:00 UTC
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
GamerLegion
World #23 · 40-33
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
41%59%
47%
1.961.75Market · 7 books
53%The call
GamerLegion are favoured: our model gives them 59% against Envy. Bookmakers lean GamerLegion at 53%. Strength slightly favours GamerLegion, record slightly favours GamerLegion, firepower slightly favours GamerLegion.
Likely mapsInferno · Cache · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
EnvypullGamerLegion
Team strength1500
159369/31 GAM
Track record1–4
40–3367/33 GAM
Recent formLWLLL
LLLWW55/45 ENV
Roster rating1.06
1.0963/37 GAM
Bookmakers imply 47% for Envy (1.96 / 1.75); we land 6 points lower at 41%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 75% our own signal (12 maps of Envy, 154 of GamerLegion).
Bottom line: GamerLegion to beat Envy, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsEnvy · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
GamerLegion · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HEROIC#251-22-0
Envy vs HEROIC
Oct 15LCache14-16Inferno13-8Ancient4-13GamerLegion vs HEROIC
Jan 30WOverpass13-7Mirage13-8Map lab
GamerLegion68%to win the Bo3 · most likely GamerLegion 2-1
If the veto goes
Envy 32%how the series ends68% GamerLegion
18%2-031%
14%2-137%
Envy51%1-0vsGamerLegion49%17-11
100%Win61%
42%CT50%
89%T49%
100%Pistol38%
100%Conv71%
Envy36%0-2vsGamerLegion64%8-1
0%Win89%
48%CT52%
42%T58%
25%Pistol56%
100%Conv80%
Envy27%1-4vsGamerLegion73%17-12
20%Win59%
47%CT54%
24%T52%
20%Pistol53%
0%Conv87%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
EnvyInfernoGamerLegion
42%CT side50%
89%T side49%
100%Pistol38%
100%After win71%
–After loss23%
EnvyCacheGamerLegion
48%CT side52%
42%T side58%
25%Pistol56%
100%After win80%
33%After loss13%
EnvyAncientGamerLegion
47%CT side54%
24%T side52%
20%Pistol53%
0%After win87%
0%After loss33%
Pistol rounds31% · 47% · GamerLegion win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol60% · 81% · GamerLegion keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol9% · 26% · GamerLegion fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Envy vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
GamerLegion habitually bans Dust2, Envy's strongest maps (Dust2 all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Dust2 49/73), not an opponent read, so expect Envy to fight the veto for Cache.
MapENVGAM
MirageENV bann/a0g50%17-17
Envy on Mirage
no recent maps
Dust2GAM ban100%2-014%2-12
InfernoENV pick100%1-061%17-11
CacheGAM pick0%0-289%8-1
NukeENV bann/a0g54%15-13
Envy on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisGAM ban0%0-225%1-3
Ancientdecider20%1-459%17-12
Each team's usual first ban: Envy Mirage · GamerLegion Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Envy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/4 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 1 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs FaZeDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/8 (13%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 1 (13%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BASEMENT BOYSAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FaZeDust2from 6 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BASEMENT BOYSAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs HEROICCache14-16vs FaZeAnubis14-16
GamerLegion
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/82 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 82 maps they won, 26 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 downvs Ninjas in PyjamasDust2from 8 downvs JiJieHaoAncientfrom 7 downvs SINNERSCachefrom 6 downvs BC.GameInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/72 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 28 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13vs MOUZNukeled 8 · lost 11-13vs ex-RUSTECDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs B8Nukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs magicDust2led 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisInfernofrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi40% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT40% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs VenomTrain16-14vs AuroraInferno16-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirage16-12vs AvantiAncient16-12vs SINNERSMirage16-19