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Predictions / Ground Zero vs Off Chops · match preview
Ground Zero vs Off Chops: CS2 match prediction · DFRAG Invitational 2026
Ground Zero
World #143 · 44-36
VS
2026-10-26 03:00 UTC
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
Off Chops
World #142 · 3-3
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
48%52%
26%
3.481.25Market · 1 books
74%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 48–52. Bookmakers lean Off Chops at 74%. Strength slightly favours Ground Zero, form clearly favours Off Chops, firepower clearly favours Off Chops, head-to-head slightly favours Off Chops.
Likely mapsNuke · Dust2 · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Ground ZeropullOff Chops
Team strength1568
152160/40 GRO
Track record44–36
3–355/45 GRO
Recent formLLLLW
LWLWW75/25 OFF
Roster rating1.13
1.1580/20 OFF
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 OFF
Bookmakers imply 26% for Ground Zero (3.48 / 1.25); we land 22 points higher at 48%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 76% our own signal (179 maps of Ground Zero, 13 of Off Chops). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Off Chops leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Off Chops to beat Ground Zero, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGround Zero · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Off Chops · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.23iStar gap: the best player rates 0.23 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dexter★ | 1.22 | 88.1 | 73.3% | 56% | 1.38 |
| Liazz | 1.17 | 85.4 | 74% | 52% | 1.32 |
| Gratisfaction | 1.2 | 77.2 | 72.2% | 34% | 1.19 |
| viridian | 0.76 | 58.5 | 72.4% | 45% | 0.95 |
| damyo | 0.81 | 68.5 | 69.6% | 56% | 0.9 |
Recent form
Ground Zero
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
FlyQuest#610-60-2
Ground Zero vs FlyQuest
Oct 11LAnubis10-13Inferno10-13Jul 19LDust26-13Anubis5-13Jul 17LDust27-13Anubis6-13Off Chops vs FlyQuest
Oct 16LDust210-13Inferno16-19
Abyssal#12818-122-0
Ground Zero vs Abyssal
Oct 16LInferno13-3Ancient6-13Nuke19-22Oct 11LInferno8-13Nuke7-13Oct 11WAncient13-7+10 earlier meetings
Off Chops vs Abyssal
Oct 16WDust213-7Inferno13-3
Rooster#18119-72-0
Ground Zero vs Rooster
Sep 27WAnubis6-13Nuke13-11Aug 28WAnubis13-4Nuke19-15Jun 18LNuke13-2Anubis11-13Mirage11-13+8 earlier meetings
Off Chops vs Rooster
Oct 17WNuke13-7Cache13-2Map lab
Ground Zero51%to win the Bo3 · most likely Ground Zero 2-1
If the veto goes
Ground Zero 51%how the series ends49% Off Chops
22%2-029%
30%2-120%
Ground Zero45%26-15vsOff Chops55%2-0
63%Win100%
61%CT79%
46%T63%
49%Pistol100%
83%Conv100%
Ground Zero48%15-23vsOff Chops52%2-3
39%Win40%
46%CT59%
48%T45%
46%Pistol40%
86%Conv100%
Ground Zero60%20-13vsOff Chops40%1-2
61%Win33%
51%CT64%
52%T42%
50%Pistol50%
84%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Ground ZeroNukeOff Chops
61%CT side79%
46%T side63%
49%Pistol100%
83%After win100%
17%After loss–
Ground ZeroDust2Off Chops
46%CT side59%
48%T side45%
46%Pistol40%
86%After win100%
15%After loss17%
Ground ZeroInfernoOff Chops
51%CT side64%
52%T side42%
50%Pistol50%
84%After win100%
19%After loss67%
Pistol rounds48% · 55% · Off Chops win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 100% · Off Chops keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 33% · Off Chops fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Ground Zero vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapGROOFF
CacheGRO bann/a0g100%1-0
Ground Zero on Cache
no recent maps
Off Chops on Cache
WRooster13–25d agoMirageOFF ban55%12-10n/a0g
Ground Zero on Mirage
WAbyssal13–03mo agoL
Arcade10–133mo agoLRooster11–134mo agoWRooster13–104mo agoWDing Cuts13–94mo agoWMasked Regime13–64mo agoL
Kaleido2–135mo agoL
TYLOO4–135mo agoOff Chops on Mirage
no recent maps
NukeGRO pick63%26-15100%2-0
Dust2OFF pick39%15-2340%2-3
AncientGRO ban43%3-40%0-1
Ground Zero on Ancient
LAbyssal6–136d agoWAbyssal13–711d agoL
THUNDER dOWNUNDER4–1327d agoWLFO 813–102mo agoWAbyssal13–12mo agoLAbyssal7–132mo agoLArcade9–137mo agoOff Chops on Ancient
L
NEXVOID8–135d agoAnubisOFF ban43%15-200%0-1
Infernodecider61%20-1333%1-2
Each team's usual first ban: Ground Zero Ancient · Off Chops Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Ground Zero
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/92 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 92 maps they won, 34 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs ArcadeNukefrom 11 downvs 11minsDust2from 9 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukefrom 8 downvs LFO 8Ancientfrom 8 downvs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/87 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 87 maps they lost, 20 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AbyssalOverpassled 8 · lost 8-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERDust2led 7 · lost 10-13vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNukeled 5 · lost 20-22vs AbyssalDust2led 5 · lost 12-16vs MindfreakInfernoled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ArcadeNukefrom 11 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AbyssalOverpassled 8 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs UndergroundMirage16-13vs MindfreakMirage19-15vs RoosterNuke16-14vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERAnubis19-16vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERNuke20-22
Off Chops
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/6 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/7 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 2 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FlyQuestInfernoled 6 · lost 16-19vs NEXVOIDInfernoled 4 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 1 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FlyQuestInfernoled 6 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs FlyQuestInferno16-19vs NEXVOIDDust217-19