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Predictions / NEXVOID vs Alter Ego · match preview
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego: CS2 match prediction · DFRAG Invitational 2026
NEXVOID
World #77 · 47-29
VS
2026-10-26 03:00 UTC
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
Alter Ego
World #132 · 25-13
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
51%49%
57%
1.622.16Market · 1 books
43%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 51–49. Bookmakers lean NEXVOID at 57%. Firepower clearly favours Alter Ego, head-to-head slightly favours Alter Ego.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NEXVOIDpullAlter Ego
Team strength1649
162755/45 NEX
Track record47–29
25–1354/46 ALT
Recent formWLWWW
LWWWW52/48 NEX
Roster rating1.12
1.2383/17 ALT
Head-to-head2 maps
3 maps57/43 ALT
Bookmakers imply 57% for NEXVOID (1.62 / 2.16); we land 6 points lower at 51%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (181 maps of NEXVOID, 90 of Alter Ego). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: NEXVOID to beat Alter Ego, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNEXVOID · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MiQ★ | 1.06 | 80.9 | 70.2% | 48% | 1.15 |
| Zesta | 1.04 | 75.9 | 71.9% | 61% | 1.15 |
| xerolte | 1.07 | 79.8 | 72.3% | 55% | 1.14 |
| erkaSt | 1 | 76.8 | 71.4% | 51% | 1.12 |
| AccuracyTG | 1.02 | 67 | 70.3% | 41% | 1.05 |
Alter Ego · avg 1.23 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
NEXVOID
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
NEXVOID2 : 1
Alter Ego!2mo ago NEXVOID0 : 2 Alter Ego!
NEXVOID2 : 1 Alter Ego!⚠ Different lineup
Alter Ego
outBnTeT, Gratisfaction, PokemoN, adeX, laxiee
NEXVOID0 : 2 Alter Ego!⚠ Different lineup
Alter Ego
outBnTeT, Gratisfaction, PokemoN, adeX, laxiee
TYLOO#351-60-2
NEXVOID vs TYLOO
Sep 10LAncient3-13Cache10-13Sep 9LAncient7-13Cache5-13May 3LAncient13-10Inferno11-13Overpass8-13Alter Ego vs TYLOO
Apr 27LMirage5-13Nuke1-13
5star#3612-123-3
NEXVOID vs 5star
Oct 10LAncient13-5Inferno12-16Nuke14-16Sep 9WAncient13-11Nuke13-9Sep 1LInferno10-13Ancient13-5Nuke10-13+6 earlier meetings
Lynn Vision#392-73-8
NEXVOID vs Lynn Vision
Sep 29WAncient11-13Nuke13-11Inferno19-16Sep 27LAncient14-16Nuke5-13Sep 2LInferno8-13Dust27-13+1 earlier meeting
Alter Ego vs Lynn Vision
Oct 14LAnubis13-9Inferno11-13Dust24-13May 11LDust210-13Overpass7-13Mar 12LOverpass13-6Dust29-13Nuke15-19+2 earlier meetings
FlyQuest#613-72-1
NEXVOID vs FlyQuest
Oct 18WAncient13-7Dust26-13Inferno13-11Oct 17LAncient16-14Dust22-13Inferno11-13Sep 2LInferno7-13Anubis11-13+1 earlier meeting
Alter Ego vs FlyQuest
Mar 12WOverpass13-8Anubis9-13Dust216-13
Chinggis Warriors#6512-182-2
NEXVOID vs Chinggis Warriors
Oct 21LInferno1-13Cache13-10Dust211-13Oct 11LNuke13-9Ancient7-13Dust25-13Oct 2LNuke10-13Inferno11-13+9 earlier meetings
Rare Atom#1274-14-0
The Huns#13420-106-2
NEXVOID vs The Huns
Oct 8WAncient13-10Inferno13-5Oct 3LInferno13-4Dust25-13Ancient1-13Sep 28WNuke22-20Ancient13-11+9 earlier meetings
Just Swing#1624-26-3
Alter Ego vs Just Swing
Oct 13WCache10-13Dust219-15Ancient13-6Aug 30LCache13-9Dust211-13Ancient6-13Apr 30WNuke13-9+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Alter Ego55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Alter Ego 2-0
If the veto goes
NEXVOID 45%how the series ends55% Alter Ego
17%2-035%
28%2-120%
NEXVOID42%25-12vsAlter Ego58%10-3
68%Win77%
58%CT61%
51%T56%
55%Pistol73%
83%Conv89%
NEXVOID39%17-15vsAlter Ego61%18-10
53%Win64%
49%CT55%
46%T55%
44%Pistol46%
75%Conv72%
NEXVOID59%4-6vsAlter Ego41%2-5
40%Win29%
38%CT47%
53%T47%
40%Pistol36%
75%Conv80%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NEXVOIDAncientAlter Ego
58%CT side61%
51%T side56%
55%Pistol73%
83%After win89%
18%After loss14%
NEXVOIDDust2Alter Ego
49%CT side55%
46%T side55%
44%Pistol46%
75%After win72%
14%After loss27%
NEXVOIDAnubisAlter Ego
38%CT side47%
53%T side47%
40%Pistol36%
75%After win80%
17%After loss44%
Pistol rounds49% · 52% · Alter Ego win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 79% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol16% · 28% · Alter Ego fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NEXVOID vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Alter Ego habitually bans Inferno, NEXVOID's strongest maps (Ancient, Inferno all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 32/39), not an opponent read, so expect NEXVOID to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapNEXALT
MirageNEX bann/a0g55%6-5
NEXVOID on Mirage
no recent maps
InfernoALT ban65%31-1760%3-2
AncientNEX pick68%25-1277%10-3
Dust2ALT pick53%17-1564%18-10
CacheNEX ban29%2-567%4-2
NukeALT ban53%17-1569%9-4
Anubisdecider40%4-629%2-5
Each team's usual first ban: NEXVOID Mirage · Alter Ego Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NEXVOID
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/103 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 35 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs Lynn VisionInfernofrom 9 downvs The HunsInfernofrom 9 downvs MorningstarDust2from 9 downvs The HunsDust2from 8 downvs FlyQuestInfernofrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/76 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 34 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FlyQuestDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 8 · lost 14-16vs The HunsNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs Alter EgoInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs FlyQuestDust2led 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionInfernofrom 9 down · won 19-16
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FlyQuestDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs The HunsAncient16-13vs The HunsInferno16-14vs fullwInferno16-12vs The HunsDust216-12vs BMZAncient17-19
Alter Ego
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/56 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 56 maps they won, 19 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs Lynn VisionAnubisfrom 8 downvs NEXVOIDInfernofrom 7 downvs The KnockoutXCachefrom 6 downvs FlyQuestOverpassfrom 4 downvs Last BulletNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/34 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 34 maps they lost, 14 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Lynn VisionNukeled 6 · lost 15-19vs 5starMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Lynn VisionDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs Last BulletOverpassled 5 · lost 10-13vs Just SwingDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionAnubisfrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Lynn VisionNukeled 6 · lost 15-19
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs Lynn VisionNuke16-14vs Rare AtomMirage16-14vs FlyQuestDust216-13vs Lynn VisionNuke15-19vs The QUBEOverpass14-16