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Predictions / FlyQuest vs Staqued · match preview
FlyQuest vs Staqued: CS2 match prediction · DFRAG Invitational 2026
FlyQuest
World #61 · 41-15
VS
2026-10-27 03:00 UTC
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
Staqued
World #– · 0-4
DFRAG Invitational 2026 · Best of 3
95%5%
96%
125Market · 1 books
4%The call · high confidence
FlyQuest are favoured: our model gives them 95% against Staqued. Bookmakers lean FlyQuest at 96%. Strength clearly favours FlyQuest, record clearly favours FlyQuest, form clearly favours FlyQuest, firepower clearly favours FlyQuest.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FlyQuestpullStaqued
Team strength1760
145894/6 FLY
Track record41–15
0–490/10 FLY
Recent formLWWWW
LLLL86/14 FLY
Roster rating1.26
0.85100/0 FLY
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 96% for FlyQuest (1 / 25) and we land at 95%, the same read. This read is 72% our own signal (112 maps of FlyQuest, 10 of Staqued).
Bottom line: FlyQuest to beat Staqued, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFlyQuest · avg 1.26 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Staqued · avg 0.85 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
FlyQuest
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Kaleido#1652-00-2
FlyQuest vs Kaleido
Sep 3WCache13-5Anubis13-4Staqued vs Kaleido
Sep 1LInferno7-13Ancient1-13
Mindfreak#2222-01-2
FlyQuest vs Mindfreak
Jul 18WNuke13-2Inferno13-3Staqued vs Mindfreak
Sep 4LAncient1-13Inferno13-6Mirage7-13Map lab
FlyQuest66%to win the Bo3 · most likely FlyQuest 2-0
If the veto goes
FlyQuest 66%how the series ends34% Staqued
39%2-014%
26%2-121%
FlyQuest67%17-4vsStaqued33%1-2
81%Win33%
66%CT47%
57%T40%
55%Pistol67%
91%Conv100%
FlyQuest58%7-5vsStaqued42%1-2
58%Win33%
51%CT29%
52%T35%
38%Pistol17%
67%Conv100%
FlyQuest56%23-6vsStaqued44%0-1
79%Win0%
60%CT8%
62%T33%
48%Pistol50%
86%Conv0%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FlyQuestInfernoStaqued
66%CT side47%
57%T side40%
55%Pistol67%
91%After win100%
37%After loss0%
FlyQuestAncientStaqued
51%CT side29%
52%T side35%
38%Pistol17%
67%After win100%
40%After loss0%
FlyQuestDust2Staqued
60%CT side8%
62%T side33%
48%Pistol50%
86%After win0%
47%After loss0%
Pistol rounds48% · 43% · FlyQuest win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol42% · 0% · FlyQuest fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FlyQuest vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Staqued habitually bans Anubis, FlyQuest's strongest maps (Anubis, Dust2, Inferno, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 2/4), not an opponent read, so expect FlyQuest to fight the veto for Anubis.
MapFLYSTA
NukeFLY ban55%6-5n/a0g
FlyQuest on Nuke
W
Rooster13–327d agoW
Finishers13–01mo agoW
THUNDER dOWNUNDER13–13mo agoWMindfreak13–23mo agoL
paiN7–135mo agoW
JiJieHao13–35mo agoL
TYLOO8–137mo agoW
Chinggis Warriors13–47mo agoStaqued on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisSTA ban85%22-4n/a0g
FlyQuest on Anubis
WRooster13–15d agoW
Ground Zero13–1011d agoWRooster13–827d agoL
DEPO5–131mo agoL
Rare Atom10–132mo agoWDEPO13–62mo agoWKaleido13–42mo agoWRare Atom16–142mo agoStaqued on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoFLY pick81%17-433%1-2
AncientSTA pick58%7-533%1-2
MirageFLY ban57%4-30%0-1
CacheSTA ban100%5-00%0-2
Dust2decider79%23-60%0-1
Each team's usual first ban: FlyQuest Mirage · Staqued Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FlyQuest
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/84 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 84 maps they won, 26 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernofrom 11 downvs NEXVOIDDust2from 11 downvs NEXVOIDDust2from 7 downvs RoosterAnubisfrom 6 downvs AbyssalInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/28 (43%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 28 maps they lost, 12 (43%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NEXVOIDInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs HEROICNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs Chinggis WarriorsNukeled 4 · lost 11-13vs Alter EgoOverpassled 4 · lost 8-13vs JiJieHaoMirageled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs THUNDER dOWNUNDERInfernofrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NEXVOIDInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs JiJieHaoAncient16-13vs Eternal FireMirage16-14vs 100 ThievesNuke14-16vs Rare AtomDust216-13vs Alter EgoDust213-16
Staqued
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/2 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/8 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni2 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini8.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample