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Predictions / LFO 10 vs Fortress · match preview
LFO 10 vs Fortress: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 Closed Qualifier
LFO
LFO 10
World #170 · 5-9
VS
TBD
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Fortress
World #240 · 6-26
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
78%22%
68%
1.342.83Market · 1 books
32%The call · high confidence
LFO 10 are favoured: our model gives them 78% against Fortress. Bookmakers lean LFO 10 at 68%. Strength clearly favours LFO 10, record slightly favours LFO 10, form slightly favours LFO 10, firepower clearly favours LFO 10.
Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LFO 10pullFortress
Team strength1467
132877/23 LFO
Track record5–9
6–2665/35 LFO
Recent formLWWLL
LWLLL60/40 LFO
Roster rating1.05
0.8994/6 LFO
Bookmakers imply 68% for LFO 10 (1.34 / 2.83); we land 10 points higher at 78%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 88% our own signal (31 maps of LFO 10, 67 of Fortress).
Bottom line: LFO 10 to beat Fortress, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLFO 10 · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Fortress · avg 0.89 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brand★ | 0.83 | 73 | 65.8% | 54% | 0.95 |
| GrEnNiE | 0.81 | 67.3 | 63.6% | 60% | 0.94 |
| BqreBedre | 0.75 | 63.8 | 64.4% | 47% | 0.87 |
| K1ngShield | 0.82 | 64.2 | 61.5% | 42% | 0.87 |
| As K | 0.71 | 64 | 62.4% | 55% | 0.83 |
Recent form
LFO 10
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
ENCE#1090-21-2
LFO 10 vs ENCE
Oct 8LInferno10-13Mirage9-13Fortress vs ENCE
Sep 8LAncient16-13Mirage5-13Cache14-16LAVLavked#1220-20-4
LFO 10 vs Lavked
Oct 17LMirage11-13Dust29-13Map lab
LFO 1069%to win the Bo3 · most likely LFO 10 2-0
If the veto goes
LFO 10 69%how the series ends31% Fortress
45%2-09%
24%2-122%
LFO 1058%2-3vsFortress42%4-9
40%Win31%
36%CT35%
50%T39%
30%Pistol35%
33%Conv78%
LFO 1078%3-2vsFortress22%2-10
60%Win17%
53%CT39%
60%T31%
60%Pistol38%
100%Conv78%
LFO 1052%0-1vsFortress48%2-9
0%Win18%
58%CT39%
27%T38%
50%Pistol59%
0%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LFO 10AncientFortress
36%CT side35%
50%T side39%
30%Pistol35%
33%After win78%
0%After loss12%
LFO 10CacheFortress
53%CT side39%
60%T side31%
60%Pistol38%
100%After win78%
0%After loss7%
LFO 10InfernoFortress
58%CT side39%
27%T side38%
50%Pistol59%
0%After win85%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds45% · 43% · level, no edge
After a won pistol70% · 81% · Fortress keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 8% · Fortress fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, LFO 10 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLFOFOR
NukeLFO ban50%1-114%1-6
MirageFOR ban30%3-79%1-10
AncientLFO pick40%2-331%4-9
CacheFOR pick60%3-217%2-10
Dust2LFO ban17%1-550%1-1
AnubisFOR ban50%1-125%2-6
Infernodecider0%0-118%2-9
Each team's usual first ban: LFO 10 Nuke · Fortress Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
LFO 10
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/11 (55%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 6 (55%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 55% of their wins were comebacks, not 55% of all games.vs 6yuBoJlblMiragefrom 9 downvs BAKSCachefrom 6 downvs MAYBEDust2from 5 downvs MOUZ NXTMiragefrom 3 downvs ex-6666Ancientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i6/20 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 20 maps they lost, 6 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MAYBEMirageled 7 · lost 6-13vs Spirit AcademyDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs FOKUSCacheled 6 · lost 7-13vs ENCEMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs MOUZ NXTCacheled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 6yuBoJlblMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MAYBEMirageled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi23% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT23% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs FOKUSMirage13-16vs MAYBEDust216-13
Fortress
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/15 (20%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 15 maps they won, 3 (20%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 20% of their wins were comebacks, not 20% of all games.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 downvs Sashi AcademyOverpassfrom 7 downvs Inner Circle AcademyAnubisfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/52 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 52 maps they lost, 17 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13vs ex-RUSTECNukeled 8 · lost 13-16vs ReviseMirageled 7 · lost 6-13vs Inner Circle AcademyCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs InvictaInfernoled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Strael BoraAncientfrom 8 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EnjoyMirageled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini6.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs InvictaInferno14-16vs Sashi AcademyOverpass16-12vs Strael BoraAncient16-14vs EnjoyNuke16-13vs Inner Circle AcademyAncient16-14