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Predictions / Azuolas vs Illyrians · match preview
Azuolas vs Illyrians: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 Closed Qualifier
Azuolas
World #215 · 6-19
VS
2026-10-31 18:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Illyrians
World #126 · 20-14
CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
28%72%
The call · high confidence
Illyrians are favoured: our model gives them 72% against Azuolas. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Illyrians, record clearly favours Illyrians, form clearly favours Illyrians, firepower clearly favours Illyrians.
Likely mapsMirage · Anubis · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AzuolaspullIllyrians
Team strength1388
154680/20 ILL
Track record6–19
20–1472/28 ILL
Recent formLLLLW
LWWLL75/25 ILL
Roster rating0.98
1.0986/14 ILL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 93% our own signal (57 maps of Azuolas, 86 of Illyrians).
Bottom line: Illyrians to beat Azuolas, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAzuolas · avg 0.98 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Illyrians · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BledarD★ | 1.18 | 81.3 | 70.5% | 37% | 1.19 |
| Lewis | 1.04 | 81.3 | 71.9% | 59% | 1.17 |
| ammar | 0.98 | 71.3 | 68.6% | 65% | 1.09 |
| cerber | 0.98 | 79.5 | 70.4% | 59% | 1.08 |
| rosoneriii | 0.81 | 64.4 | 66.8% | 47% | 0.92 |
Recent form
Azuolas
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2 Ares#980-42-1
Illyrians vs G2 Ares
Oct 21WAncient7-13Mirage13-10Cache13-3
BAKS#1060-22-4
Azuolas vs BAKS
Oct 22LCache2-13Nuke14-16
HAVU#1070-22-0
Azuolas vs HAVU
Oct 24LMirage10-13Nuke7-13Illyrians vs HAVU
Oct 26WMirage13-9Dust213-10
ex-RUSTEC#1121-42-3
Bushido Wildcats#1456-22-0
Azuolas vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 18LMirage8-13Nuke9-13Sep 17WNuke13-6Cache13-4Sep 9WMirage13-5Nuke13-10+1 earlier meeting
Illyrians vs Bushido Wildcats
Oct 13WAnubis16-14Cache13-7
Phantom Academy#1570-21-2
Azuolas vs Phantom Academy
Oct 2LMirage11-13Nuke1-13Illyrians vs Phantom Academy
Sep 27LDust29-13Mirage13-11Ancient1-13
Noir Verse#1600-22-2
Azuolas vs Noir Verse
Oct 8LAncient11-13Nuke4-13
Enjoy#1832-31-2
Illyrians vs Enjoy
Oct 7LAncient7-13Dust213-6Mirage11-13Map lab
Illyrians83%to win the Bo3 · most likely Illyrians 2-0
If the veto goes
Azuolas 17%how the series ends83% Illyrians
5%2-058%
12%2-125%
Azuolas32%5-10vsIllyrians68%12-10
33%Win55%
49%CT59%
45%T45%
50%Pistol52%
87%Conv87%
Azuolas15%2-4vsIllyrians85%6-1
33%Win86%
39%CT57%
51%T60%
33%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Azuolas33%3-8vsIllyrians67%7-8
27%Win47%
46%CT50%
44%T44%
32%Pistol47%
86%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AzuolasMirageIllyrians
49%CT side59%
45%T side45%
50%Pistol52%
87%After win87%
13%After loss19%
AzuolasAnubisIllyrians
39%CT side57%
51%T side60%
33%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
25%After loss14%
AzuolasAncientIllyrians
46%CT side50%
44%T side44%
32%Pistol47%
86%After win79%
13%After loss25%
Pistol rounds41% · 50% · Illyrians win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol16% · 20% · Illyrians fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Azuolas vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapAZUILL
Dust2AZU ban0%0-341%9-13
NukeILL ban36%5-90%0-1
MirageAZU pick33%5-1055%12-10
AnubisILL pick33%2-486%6-1
CacheAZU ban50%1-177%10-3
InfernoILL ban33%2-450%1-1
Ancientdecider27%3-847%7-8
Each team's usual first ban: Azuolas Dust2 · Illyrians Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Azuolas
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i7/18 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 18 maps they won, 7 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 7 downvs MisaAncientfrom 5 downvs MisaInfernofrom 5 downvs EntropyAncientfrom 4 downvs EnjoyAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/39 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 39 maps they lost, 12 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BAKSCacheled 11 · lost 2-13vs HAVUNukeled 9 · lost 7-13vs G2 AresInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs PermittaMirageled 5 · lost 12-16vs megoshortMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Bushido WildcatsNukefrom 7 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BAKSCacheled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs PermittaMirage12-16vs PermittaNuke19-16vs EntropyDust213-16vs G2 AresMirage15-19vs ex-RUSTECMirage19-16
Illyrians
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/45 (42%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 45 maps they won, 19 (42%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 42% of their wins were comebacks, not 42% of all games.vs Banda ChuyaCachefrom 11 downvs WWDust2from 10 downvs VexarAncientfrom 6 downvs UNiTYDust2from 6 downvs Saint SinnersMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/37 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 37 maps they lost, 12 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUSTECAnubisled 10 · lost 6-13vs Noir VerseNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs STATECacheled 5 · lost 11-13vs MAYBEMirageled 4 · lost 12-16vs G2 AresAncientled 4 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Banda ChuyaCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUSTECAnubisled 10 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 8Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 8 went to overtime.vs STATEAncient16-12vs MAYBEMirage12-16vs SAW YoungstersDust219-17vs Bushido WildcatsAnubis16-14vs Black PhoenixMirage13-16