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Predictions / MEIA NOITE vs RUSH · match preview
MEIA NOITE vs RUSH: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 8
MEI
MEIA NOITE
World #– · 11-16
VS
2026-11-06 22:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 8 · Best of 3
RUSH
World #232 · 1-4
CCT 2026 South America Series 8 · Best of 3
67%33%
63%
1.462.47Market · 4 books
37%The call
MEIA NOITE are favoured: our model gives them 67% against RUSH. Bookmakers lean MEIA NOITE at 63%. Record slightly favours MEIA NOITE, form slightly favours MEIA NOITE, firepower clearly favours MEIA NOITE.
Likely mapsAncient · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MEIA NOITEpullRUSH
Team strength1494
147055/45 MEI
Track record11–16
1–464/36 MEI
Recent formWLWLW
LLWLL69/31 MEI
Roster rating1.11
1.0198/2 MEI
Bookmakers imply 63% for MEIA NOITE (1.46 / 2.47); we land 4 points higher at 67%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 74% our own signal (66 maps of MEIA NOITE, 11 of RUSH).
Bottom line: MEIA NOITE to beat RUSH, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMEIA NOITE · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
RUSH · avg 1.01 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MEIA NOITE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsQUIQUINTESSÊNCIA#2014-30-2
MEIA NOITE vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Oct 8WInferno10-13Ancient13-10Dust213-8Sep 26WDust213-4Ancient13-8Sep 20LAncient8-13Cache13-16RUSH vs QUINTESSÊNCIA
Sep 20LCache6-13Mirage2-13SEMSementes do Mal#2442-02-0
MEIA NOITE vs Sementes do Mal
Aug 27Wseries2-0RUSH vs Sementes do Mal
Sep 18WCache13-7Mirage13-8Map lab
MEIA NOITE50%to win the Bo3 · most likely MEIA NOITE 2-0
If the veto goes
MEIA NOITE 50%how the series ends50% RUSH
26%2-024%
25%2-126%
MEIA NOITE54%6-12vsRUSH46%0-2
33%Win0%
48%CT60%
45%T14%
58%Pistol25%
95%Conv100%
MEIA NOITE48%3-6vsRUSH52%1-2
33%Win33%
49%CT58%
43%T28%
50%Pistol83%
89%Conv40%
MEIA NOITE49%10-6vsRUSH51%1-0
63%Win100%
51%CT88%
52%T50%
63%Pistol50%
75%Conv0%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MEIA NOITEAncientRUSH
48%CT side60%
45%T side14%
58%Pistol25%
95%After win100%
27%After loss0%
MEIA NOITEMirageRUSH
49%CT side58%
43%T side28%
50%Pistol83%
89%After win40%
22%After loss0%
MEIA NOITEDust2RUSH
51%CT side88%
52%T side50%
63%Pistol50%
75%After win0%
25%After loss0%
Pistol rounds58% · 58% · level, no edge
After a won pistol86% · 43% · MEIA NOITE keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol25% · 0% · MEIA NOITE fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MEIA NOITE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMEIRUS
AnubisMEI bann/a0gn/a0g
MEIA NOITE on Anubis
no recent maps
RUSH on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoRUS ban50%3-30%0-1
AncientMEI pick33%6-120%0-2
MirageRUS pick33%3-633%1-2
CacheMEI ban0%0-450%1-1
NukeRUS ban45%5-60%0-2
Dust2decider63%10-6100%1-0
Each team's usual first ban: MEIA NOITE Anubis · RUSH Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MEIA NOITE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/27 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 27 maps they won, 9 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs Low Cortisol BRDust2from 7 downvs GalorysDust2from 5 downvs GrêmioNukefrom 4 downvs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 4 downvs Low Cortisol BRNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i15/37 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 37 maps they lost, 15 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs QUINTESSÊNCIAAncientled 8 · lost 8-13vs Turma do PagodeDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs GalorysAncientled 8 · lost 6-13vs BORRACHEIROSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Low Cortisol BRDust2from 7 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 9Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 9 went to overtime.vs BORRACHEIROSAncient13-16vs METANOIA WolvesMirage22-20vs METANOIA WolvesAncient12-16vs GrêmioDust216-14vs ex-MIBR AcademyMirage13-16
RUSH
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/3 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 2 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs your endDust2from 4 downvs Sementes do MalMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/8 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 8 maps they lost, 3 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs your endInfernoled 9 · lost 9-13vs your endAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs ShindeNNukeled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs your endDust2from 4 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs your endInfernoled 9 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample