Prestige are favoured: our model gives them 61% against KUUSAMO. Bookmakers lean Prestige at 73%. Strength slightly favours Prestige, record slightly favours Prestige, firepower clearly favours Prestige.
Likely mapsNuke · Inferno · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
KUUSAMOpullPrestige
Team strength1439
150664/36 PRE
Track record10–20
14–1461/39 PRE
Recent formLWLLL
WLLLL54/46 PRE
Roster rating1.02
1.0278/22 PRE
Bookmakers imply 27% for KUUSAMO (3.38 / 1.28); we land 12 points higher at 39%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 92% our own signal (59 maps of KUUSAMO, 50 of Prestige).
Bottom line: Prestige to beat KUUSAMO, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings
KUUSAMO · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Prestige · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Prestige90%to win the Bo3 · most likely Prestige 2-0
If the veto goes
KUUSAMO 10%how the series ends90% Prestige
4%2-059%
6%2-131%
Map 1NukeKUUSAMO pick
KUUSAMO11%8-9vsPrestige89%6-0
47%Win100%
54%CT62%
45%T51%
56%Pistol67%
89%Conv100%
Map 2InfernoPrestige pick
KUUSAMO33%3-4vsPrestige67%7-4
43%Win64%
41%CT55%
47%T56%
57%Pistol45%
88%Conv80%
Map 3Ancientdecider
KUUSAMO16%0-7vsPrestige84%5-8
0%Win38%
34%CT42%
30%T48%
36%Pistol46%
80%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns
CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
KUUSAMONukePrestige
54%CT side62%
45%T side51%
56%Pistol67%
89%After win100%
0%After loss25%
KUUSAMOInfernoPrestige
41%CT side55%
47%T side56%
57%Pistol45%
88%After win80%
17%After loss25%
KUUSAMOAncientPrestige
34%CT side42%
30%T side48%
36%Pistol46%
80%After win75%
22%After loss21%
Pistol rounds52% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol88% · 83% · KUUSAMO keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol10% · 23% · Prestige fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, KUUSAMO vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.